When Will the Exploding Number of Cases Lead to More Deaths?
The 7-day average in cases peaked on April 9 at 34,756. The number of deaths per day peaked at 2,590 eight days later.
To suggest a lag of about a week is wrong.
Key Reasons the Lag isn't a Week
- States did not peak at the same time. Averaging the states together smoothed out the curve.
- States had different reporting methods. Some states lumped probable deaths in with known deaths.
- Some states purposely downplayed deaths.
If is highly likely Florida artificially and purposely undercounted Covid deaths.
The Tampa Bay Times reports Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.
When the medical examiners’ list was available, it showed more deaths than the state’s count.
The Palm Beach Post editorial says Gov. DeSantis still hiding crucial data on COVID-19 deaths from the public.
The number of cases are now too many to hide.
Typical Reaction to Bad Analysis
Federal Reopening Criteria
Distorted "Real World" Methodology Explained
The proper way to compare death rates is to pay heed to state-by-state variations and lag rates.
Lag Time in Florida
It took over a month before deaths caught up to the original surge in Florida Covid-cases.
Lag Time in New York
New York had the smallest lag time. It was less than a week.
Lag Time in Arizona
Arizona had so few cases that it is a stretch to point out a lag time. But an explosion of cases started at the end of May and on June 24 there was a meaningful new record high in the 7-day average number of deaths.
Both of these lags are about three weeks.
Lag Time in California
California is similar to Arizona. It has weak relationships as well, if not more so. But to dismiss the rising number of cases as meaningless is folly.
Lag Time in New Jersey
New Jersey is either a double top of two separate cases or a longer lag of about three weeks.
Texas Lag Time
The initial lag time in Texas was a month.
National Lag vs State Lags
- Florida has a lag time of 5 weeks
- Texas a lag time of 4-5 weeks
- New Jersey a rolling top of 3 weeks.
- It is hard to say what the lag time is in California and Arizona.
- New York has a small lag of about a week.
- Average all of this together you get a national lag time of 8 days.
Comment From Nate Silver
Rise Not Due to More Testing
Stats That Allegedly Do Not Matter
Most of those are record highs. But hey, it cannot possibly matter.
The disbelievers generally do not factor in that fact that lags can be a month or more.
Nor do they accept the proven fact that social distancing works.
We can debate the price tag but it is proven foolishness to suggest that social distancing does work.
Governors in Florida, Texas, and Arizona casually disregarded and downplayed social distancing.
So did mayors in various cities in California. And so did president Trump.
This Will Soon Go Away
Please play that video for an amusing flashback.
Look what happened.
Panic in Texas and Other Responses
- Texas Shuts Bars at Noon as Covid Cases Surge
- Houston Exceeds ICU Capacity
- EU Lifts Its Travel Ban But Not For the US
- Florida Closes Bars in Response to Covid Spike and NBA Season Threatened
- Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll and his Covid handling is one of the reasons.
Fake "Real World" vs Real "Real World"
In the fake "real world" we can ignore the exploding number of cases, just as Trump did in late February and early March.
In the real "real world" things are just a bit more complicated.