Vaccines or Not, Scientists Now Believe Covid is Here to Stay

Mish

Ease of transmission, new strains, and limits of vaccination programs all mean Covid-19 will be around for years—and a big business.

Cold Reality Dawns

The vaccines have raised hope, but the Cold Reality Dawns That Covid Is Likely Here to Stay

Governments and businesses are increasingly accepting what epidemiologists have long warned: The pathogen will circulate for years, or even decades, leaving society to coexist with Covid-19 much as it does with other endemic diseases like flu, measles, and HIV.

The ease with which the coronavirus spreads, the emergence of new strains and poor access to vaccines in large parts of the world mean Covid-19 could shift from a pandemic disease to an endemic one, implying lasting modifications to personal and societal behavior, epidemiologists say.

“Going through the five phases of grief, we need to come to the acceptance phase that our lives are not going to be the same,” said Thomas Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “I don’t think the world has really absorbed the fact that these are long-term changes.”

“We assume it would last for years, or be eternal, such as the flu,” said Jiwon Lim, spokesman for South Korea’s SD Biosensor, Inc., a test maker that is ramping up production of at-home diagnostic kits.

Eradication Extremely Difficult

Only one virus has ever been completely eradicated, smallpox. 

  • Smallpox existed for thousands of years, killed millions, and was fatal in up to 30% of cases.
  • It was eradicated by a collaborative global vaccination program led by the World Health Organization.
  • The last known natural case was in Somalia in 1977.
  • In 1978, an accident in a research laboratory led to the death of one person from the disease.

Biowar Testing

In September of 2019, LiveScience reported Two Labs Still House Live Smallpox.

A fire reportedly broke out yesterday (Sept. 16) after an explosion at a secret lab in Russia, one of only two places in the world where the variola virus that causes smallpox is kept. One person was reported injured and transferred to a nearby burn center. 

Researchers at the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology (also called the Vector Institute), located near Novosibirsk in Siberia, study some scary viruses, including Ebola, anthrax and Marburg.

A Cold War-era bioweapons lab, Vector once housed some 100 buildings and even its own cemetery where a scientist who injected himself with the highly lethal Marburg virus.

The other lab authorized by the World Health Organization to hold smallpox — declared eradicated in 1980 — is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia.

Accidents Happen

One never knows when a nutcase working in a lab might decide to do something. Accidents can also happen.

Many believe the origin of Covid is from a bio lab in China. 

Endemic Mutations

Like the flu, Covid mutations are prone to becoming endemic because they spread through casual actions like breathing and talking.

That makes Covid particularly difficult to eradicate. 

Perhaps people will need yearly shots, just like the flu. Regardless, Covid will remain a disruptive force for a long time.  

Mish

Comments (81)
No. 1-24
goldguy
goldguy

Of course it will be with us forever, just like a chest cold, or the flu...been around for thousands of years. Not to be crude, but, living ends with death every single time. WAY to much panic porn on the fake news. Nothing will help except maybe having a very good immune system, which requires a low BMI, which in America, just about everyone is liberal and overweight.

njbr
njbr

And this is why rapid effective response is required.

Kimo
Kimo

This is a problem, they don't want fixed. Ivermectine works broadly as a anti-viral, take it safely, and only when ill. Ah, but you must be masked, vaccined, and lockdown. This is intimately tied to the last post. Or, if you must pay more for something new and safety untested, there is this:
"Researchers led by a team at the University of Nottingham discovered that the broad spectrum antiviral thapsigargin has shown to be effective against SARS-CoV-2 (which causes Covid-19), a common cold coronavirus, the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) as well as influenza A virus. "
DuckDuckGo the name, yourself.
Meanwhile, Sweden, Florida, & South Dakota move along, ignoring the madness of imposing insecurities on others.

Doug78
Doug78

If it becomes like the Flu then there is no big problem. It could evolve into something more more dangerous so so could a lot of pathogens. Best plan is to keep up a very good health system which is also true even if covid never existed. It's kumbaya PR .

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

According to some sources, literally tons of "weapons grade" smallpox developed by the Soviet military just disappeared when the Soviet government collapsed. Whether some of that stockpile might still exist...or who controls it, is a matter for speculation. Nobody really knows.

It’s unlikely that the vaccine many older people received (I got it at age five, before starting school) actually might still confer immunity to smallpox. In the US, smallpox vaccination ended in 1972.

In 2014, the CDC found six vials of “lost” smallpox in a freezer, long forgotten. I’d give very good odds on smallpox being out there.....in more than two places.

When I think of real threats from biological warfare, smallpox is very high on my list. It’s so contagious that it’s been shown to have traveled from one hospital floor to another just because windows were briefly left open...it has an R0 of somewhere between 3.5 and 6.

I think the jury is still out on the long term persistence of COVID...I don’t expect it to be eradicated, necessarily, but I do expect for it to be contained well enough for most of us to get back to some semblance of normal. I don’t think it will happen in 2021 however.

Now that I’ve been vaccinated against COVID, I’m at least thinking about booking a vacation.....although I will certainly consider the risks...and I will take every possible precaution.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

When we think of the end of the humanity it can be in terms of nuclear holocaust or asteroid impact.

Perhaps we should add rapidly mutating virus to the list. One running and mutating faster than humans can cope, worse than cv19, or one that causes infertility with few if any outward symptoms.

Certainly not impossible.

TexasTim65
TexasTim65

I'm glad to read more and more articles saying we need to just accept it and move on with life. It says we are starting to get back to normal.

Smallpox at 30% death rate is a disaster. Covid at .5% is a rounding error that may not continue for years if all the vulnerable people are dead already.

Living here in Florida more and more things are returning to normal every day. My whole family had Covid and it was nothing. About half the people I know here have had it and had no effects on them either. At this point or sometime soon, pretty much everyone in Florida not living in isolation will have had Covid, been exposed to it with no repercussions or be dead from it. At that point the only thing left to fear it fear itself :)

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Mish: "Many believe the origin of Covid is from a bio lab in China".
U.S has many bio labs around the world and in the US. Many believe that events in the summer 2019 at Fort Detrick are the origin of CoronaVirus.

Sechel
Sechel

If we all get vaccinated covid will me manageable and not be a death risk. It's still possible we eradicate it but the longer we take in vaccinating and limiting spread the less likely that becomes

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Looks like international air travel won't come close to making a full recovery.

ohno
ohno

Just great. Im 52 and you're telling me i'm wearing a mask, social distancing and forgetting about things like rock concerts for the rest of my life? I have 2 words for those that think like that. Read my mind.

astroboy
astroboy

I really wonder about covid. Based on my experience it's not a big deal. I know about a dozen people who have had it, very mild or asymptomatic. Possibly, myself and my entire family had it in March. Basically, flu. On the other hand you hear all these horror stories....

Carl_R
Carl_R

Smallpox is not the only virus that is not endemic. SARS and MERS came and went, though a few cases of MERS do pop up occasionally. The Spanish Flu has not been around for a long time, though other varieties of flu have been.

There are a wide variety of possible futures. Perhaps Covid will end up vanishing. Perhaps it will end up mutating into a milder form, and become like the coronaviruses that lead to colds. Or, perhaps it will be a chronic killer and we will all take booster shots periodically. Whatever the future is, we will deal with it as it comes.

Greggg
Greggg

Covid 19 and enforcement is going to the federal level now. Got to wear 2 masks... Totalitarian tiptoe. It's not about a virus.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

Let me fix this for you "Many believe the origin of Covid is from a bio lab in China. "
Many <b>nut cases</b> believe the origin of Covid is from a bio lab in China.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I give it about 9 more months. By Q1 2022 we will see the end of mask mandates and a booming economy by summer 2022. It is going to take a year to get to herd immunity. And yes expect to be like an annual flu shot. Sometimes with multiple shots per year.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

In the meantime C19 fears will be abused to justify a technocratic new world order; powerful people a la Gates, Musk etc, creating indoctrinating totalitarianism, implementing greater control of the masses by means of mandatory implanted chips. Go figure, C19 even justifies the war on cash! DNA altering vaccines will become compulsory, leading to total discrimination and outlawing of people refusing to go along with the Big Pharma scam, an outright thread to basic human rights and democracy in general, not to mention 'freedom' whatever that may still be worth in the police states we have become in recent years. Some will say I am exaggerating....Did you know that Denmark, of all fckn democratic nations, wanted to pass a law making the fckn vaccination forcible ? Yes with police men accompanied by a nurse coming to your house etc ! Luckily the proposed law was not approved by the parliament....for the time being that is...The fact that a exemplary (socialist) nation even THINKS of applying similar INSANE measures tells you EXACTLY what the world is in for, does it not ?

njbr
njbr

Almost one year in.

Excess deaths for the year will come to almost 600,000

Number of hospitalizations near 1,000,000

What will be the new normal?

Do you imagine/hope/believe that "once and done" will rule?

If you look at South Africa and areas of South America, it is clear that this is not the case.

Back to normal?

Is 600,000 deaths a year acceptable and dismissible (making it the biggest cause of death ahead of heart disease)? Will a million hospitalizations a year just be the "cost of doing business"? Can you really expect that people will ignore this?

There is the fact that every year you are getting older--becoming more a part of the more susceptible demographic.

And realize that damage to people from this illness will be culmulative. There is no curative in a second time around with the illness that would repair the damages to blood vessels and lungs from a previous case.

joemanc
joemanc

Was listening to John Campbell from the UK who does Covid youtube videos and he says it will be eradicated, but it may take a couple of years because of the more contagious mutations. He said the virus can only mutate 29,000 times, and the virus has already mutated at least 14,000 times according to genetic sequencing which the UK is really good at doing. So eventually, we will get down to the few remaining strains, vaccinate against those, and we'll be done with it. The spanish flu went away, and whatever happened to the original SARS Covid 1? This can go away too.
In the meantime, Vit. D and Ivermectin seem to work fairly well to treat this thing.

AussiePete
AussiePete

I was reading somewhere that there is only one recorded case of transmission occurring outdoors, and that was a couple of Chinese friends who had a one hour conversation sitting about a metre away from each other. So attending outdoor stadiums and walking in the street etc could be mask-free....

inonothing
inonothing

So this should add to our GDP, right? Maybe double it and outgrow our debts?

JonathanLabman
JonathanLabman

Hi Mish, Dr. Pierre Kory of FLCCC (Front Line Covid Care) is sharing the data that the existing anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin is effective as a prophylaxis and treatment for all strains of Covid-19. He has presented to the U.S. Senate, NIH (who changed their status recommendation about Ivermectin from "against" to 'neutral') and a member of President Biden's Covid Task Force. This drug won the Nobel Prize in 2015 for its effectiveness against parasites that cause human blindness, has 4 Billion doses given with only about 1600 known cases of any side effects, and is now testing brilliantly about Covid. See: LIVE EVENT RECORDING & SLIDE DECK: https://covid19criticalcare.com/media/flccc-lecture-for-ypo-gold-on-ivermectin/. First bright news in a long time. Best, Jonathan


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