US Trade Talks With China Collapse: No Further Talks Scheduled


Either Trump backs down from repeated threats or more tariffs are coming as talks with China collapse.

Be prepared for an escalating trade war as U.S.-China Trade Talks End With No Sign of Progress.

> Trade talks between the U.S. and China failed to produce any visible sign of progress, reducing the prospects of a deal soon, people closely tracking the talks said.

> The two sides “exchanged views on how to achieve fairness, balance, and reciprocity in the economic relationship, including by addressing structural issues in China,” the White House said, adding that the U.S. side would brief more-senior officials on the results.

> The statement was significant for what it didn’t say as well, people said after the talks. There was no discussion of follow-up talks or any accomplishments.

> Chinese Vice Minister Liu He, who has been leading the Chinese negotiating team, laid out his views of the U.S. requests of China, people briefed on the talks said. They said Mr. Liu seemed to have a clear understanding of U.S. demands.

> Those people said the Chinese have divided U.S. demands into three buckets. Roughly 30% to 40% of the U.S. requests involved additional Chinese purchases of U.S. goods, which Chinese officials believe could be met immediately. Another 30% to 40% involved market openings, such as allowing foreign financial firms to own a greater percentage of Chinese ventures and giving them broader authority to operate. Those could take several years of negotiations.

> The remaining 20% to 40% involve U.S. demands for changes in Chinese industrial policy. Those include ending unfair subsidies of Chinese high-tech firms, letting U.S. data firms operate without interference or ending pressure on U.S. firms to transfer technology. The Chinese won’t agree to negotiate on many of these, those briefed on the plan said, because of national-security or political reasons. Beijing has said it doesn’t force U.S. companies to share technology with their Chinese counterparts.

> For now, the U.S. continues to turn to tariffs to pressure China. As negotiations wrapped up on Thursday, the U.S. put in place $16 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, raising the total to $50 billion. The Chinese have matched them dollar for dollar.

> Public hearings continued on U.S. plans to hit another $200 billion in Chinese imports with tariffs as high as 25%, which would place levies on about half of Chinese imports. If the U.S. continues on the same schedule as in the past, those tariffs could start to take effect in September.

My base scenario at this point is that trade repercussions will cost Republicans the House in November.

It is not out of the question for Republicans to lose the Senate but that is far more unlikely.

For Republicans to lose the Senate, it may take a stronger economic turn down, perhaps coupled with a stock market dive.

Regardless, Trump is truly skating on thin ice. However, November is a long way off politically speaking. There is plenty of time for Trump to recover but he cannot go on with these inane tariff battles that few support.

Trump has his out card prepared: "Blame the Fed" rather than himself.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-6

As silly as this whole tariff charade is, it would be interesting to see Trump ratchet up criticism of the Fed. It always amazes me how many people know little or nothing about them despite their immense power. If Trump keeps mentioning them, at the very least it will goad the MAGA crowd into researching them more.

This isn't to say Trump can or would do anything about the Fed, but part of their clout comes from operating under the radar and Trump may push them into the spotlight against their will. Even though I'm bearish in my long term global outlook (mostly due to the shenanigans of central bankers) bringing more attention to the Fed can't be all bad, and it's way overdue.


Trump should put environmental tariffs and wage parity tariffs and employee protection tariffs and currency manipulation tariffs on EVERYTHING produced in China since China uses as competitive advantages the following:

-destroying environment and pollution

-low wages that are many times more appropriately described as slave wages

-bad working environment and excessive working hours including 6-7 day work weeks

-manipulating yuan to follow dollar and euro to allow mercantilist strategy for China to keep exports running.


The US and China will come to an agreement prior to the election. Both sides will benefit and both sides will claim victory. The risk/reward for not doing so is too far towards the risk side to not act.


"My base scenario at this point is that trade repercussions will cost Republicans the House in November."

November of 2020 or 2022 maybe but the economy is not going to crash far enough by Nov 2018 to cause a change in the House. However, Cohen's payments to Trump's partners might do it.


We are fast approaching the date at which the economic effect on the election....this is called employment and baked in. A traditional estimated date is labor day. Unemployment is at a record low. Wages are starting to climb a bit. My major stocks raised dividends, one by 20%. Also, Trump gets to sell that he is keeping a campaign promise, an indecent and unnatural act.

The somewhat probably imminent government shutdown over the Great Wall of Trump is a possible black swan.


Keep calm! This is just normal real-world negotiation tactics.

It is a new game for the Chinese, who have been used to dealing with Swamp Creatures in the US -- make a "donation" to the Clinton Foundation. and the US Administration gives them whatever they want. For the first time, the Chinese are negotiating with an equal who actually stands up for his country -- but they are fast learners.

As for Mish's dream of Democrat victory in the mid-term elections, here is an anecdotal indicator: there has been an amazing swing in the incessant political ads in my State. Democrat ads used to show Democrats promising to fight President Trump; now Democrat ads do not mention the President and instead focus on all they are going to do to create jobs and make the State "business friendly". It is pretty clear what the Democrat internal polling is showing. There is not much public support for unilateral free trade that costs jobs.

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