Unemployment Claims Have the Largest Increase Since March 2020

Mish

Initial Claims Jumped by 181,000. That's the largest increase since the massive surge of 3.6 million on March 28, 2020.

Initial Claims Trend Turns Up

Initial State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Initial claims bottomed at 711,000 on November 7, 2020 and have been rising in a choppy fashion since then.

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims  2021-01-14 Report

Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. Continued claims appear to have bottomed and likely have. 

A number of people dropped off the rolls because they expired all of their weekly benefits. 

Although Congress extended emergency benefits such as PUA and PEUC, those programs expired for a short while. Numbers for those programs are even more distorted so I will wait for a bit to comment.  

Jobs Recovery Has Gone Into Reverse

Nonfarm Payrolls 2020-12

Last Friday I noted Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

Today's unemployment claims number strengthen the idea the jobs recovery has stalled.

Mish

Comments (34)
No. 1-11
Frilton Miedman
Frilton Miedman

"It's only 15 cases, will soon be down to zero"...Carry on, go to maga rallies, don't bother masking, it's fake-flu and the health industry is fear-mongering for profits, HCQ or drinking bleach cures it anyway!

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Given the prolonged, elevated initial state claims, and disproportional unemployment number, there may be a couple of things happening. People who have been laid off have started selling things online. There may be some repeat initial unemployment claims by people who lost their job, used up part of their unemployment benefits, found a job, and then were let go again. That's IF you trust government numbers.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

A considerable re-allocation of labour will have to happen along with training for new jobs.

The jobs market itself will have changed and not return to what it was & how many, who can afford to retire, will return?

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Stalled recovery and the fed said they are pushing hard for 2% inflation today.

So kick people while they are down and unemployed and raise the cost of goods and services.

And the fed does a great job of distracting the masses by forcing a red vs blue narrative instead of focusing on the real problem: The Fed!

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I we don’t get the COVID numbers down, it could get worse instead of better. The vaccinations need to ramp up some more..

One-armed Economist
One-armed Economist

Actually the States and reporting are just MONTHS behind. I.e. last Friday I put in over 60 calls to TX Unemp. Divsion. Only 2 calls went thru, 1 was dropped while I held 45 minutes into, the other dropped me at near 3 hours. KS is 3 months+ behind. There's a hell out there waiting to show in more data IMHO (and not just me).

njbr
njbr

Covid is the economy, now.

UK preventing flights from most of South America due to new Brazil variant that may not be handled via the current vaccines.

Meanwhile, our government is at a standstill apparently with respect to the virus. Basic precautions are still not being taken.

USA 11th highest per capita death rate in the world. 7th highest case per capita case rate. This is without the more contagious British variant taking hold and before the other monsters lurking in that closet come out.

There is still a lot more pain to come. This is what happens when you assume "it's just gonna go away" and all of your enablers agree.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Repeating prior thread comments

@Doug78 says "Let me get this right. Somebody who works at twitter hacks Parler and downloads all their data. Twitter and friends then takes down Parler"

Let YOU get this straight @Doug78 I am tired of bullshit straw man statements presented as facts to make them seem like they happened.

This applies to everyone

Greggg
Greggg

Here in Michigan:
The weekly benefit amount is capped at $362. To determine how many weeks of benefits you may receive, BW&UC multiplies your total base period wages by 43%, and then divides that answer by your weekly benefit amount. The claim, however, cannot be less than 14 weeks or more than 26 weeks.
So, we now have a whittled down active employee that's being chomped down to a smaller size in round 2.

Mish
Mish

Editor

No Evidence Supporting the "let me get this straight" allegation.

From WIRED

Parler's cardinal security sin is known as an insecure direct object reference, says Kenneth White, codirector of the Open Crypto Audit Project, who looked at the code of the download tool @donk_enby posted online. An IDOR occurs when a hacker can simply guess the pattern an application uses to refer to its stored data. In this case, the posts on Parler were simply listed in chronological order: Increase a value in a Parler post url by one, and you'd get the next post that appeared on the site. Parler also doesn't require authentication to view public posts and doesn't use any sort of "rate limiting" that would cut off anyone accessing too many posts too quickly. Together with the IDOR issue, that meant that any hacker could write a simple script to reach out to Parler's web server and enumerate and download every message, photo, and video in the order they were posted.

"It's just a straight sequence, which is mind-numbing to me," says White. "This is like a Computer Science 101 bad homework assignment, the kind of stuff that you would do when you're first learning how web servers work. I wouldn't even call it a rookie mistake because, as a professional, you would never write something like this."

From donk_enby

Carl_R
Carl_R

All of this leads to the question of why it was so essential to shut Parler down immediately. It was free conversation, with no privacy. The government, or anyone else, could easily track what was being said, and identify the ip and location of the speaker. That seems like exactly what the law enforcement would want. Now, the evil people will be scattered to various sites, where they undoubtedly will have better privacy and more secrecy. Shutting Parler down may have made law enforcement's job a lot harder, not easier.

To make a non-internet analogy, suppose you have a coffee shop, and a group is planning insurrection, just sitting at a table, and doing it with police sitting at the table next to them. The coffee shop owner kicks them out, so they move to someone's basement. Did the decision to kick them out of the coffee shop prevent evil? No, the same evil people are still around, and if anything, more angry. Did it keep them from communicating? No. Did it make it harder to track them? Yes.

The only argument that I can think of as to how shutting down Parler instantly might have helped comes down to a single person. It prevented Trump from using Parler to communicate with millions of people at the same time.


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