Unemployment Claims Dip After Rising for Two Weeks
Initial Unemployment Claims
Initial state unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 712,000 for the week ending November 28.
Continued Unemployment Claims
Continued claims decline again but the numbers are deceptive. State claims fall as benefits expire.
Continued claims, like Initial claims, are seasonally adjusted. The rest of the numbers are not adjusted.
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC)
PEUC claims have risen every week since August. PEUC benefits kick in after people have exhausted regular state benefits.
PEUC claims lag continued claims by a week, They are not seasonally adjusted.
Despite the lags and the seasonal adjustment mix, you can get a better feel for the true state of affairs by adding PEU claims to continued claims.
Progress in continued claims is not as good as it looks. But none of it matches the BLS unemployment reports.
PUA claims cover part-time workers and self-employed. This program is rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.
All Continued Claims in 2020
All continued claims is the total of everything above except initial claims but the continued claims portion is not seasonally adjusted.
Since it contains PUA claims this number is also rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.
The PEUC and PUA programs expire on December 26.
Expect Congress to have a package by then, but the details are subject to negotiation.
Democrats and Republicans have been bickering over this since September.
For discussion, please see Desire to Reach a Deal and Doing It are Two Different Things.