Unemployment Claims Dip After Rising for Two Weeks

Mish

Unemployment claims are down across the board except for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC). But that's a bigger problem than it looks.

Initial Unemployment Claims

Initial state unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 712,000 for the week ending November 28.

Continued Unemployment Claims

Continued state unemployment Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

Continued claims decline again but the numbers are deceptive. State claims fall as benefits expire. 

Continued claims, like Initial claims, are seasonally adjusted. The rest of the numbers are not adjusted.

Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC)

PEUC Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

PEUC claims have risen every week since August. PEUC benefits kick in after people have exhausted regular state benefits. 

PEUC claims lag continued claims by a week, They are not seasonally adjusted. 

Despite the lags and the seasonal adjustment mix, you can get a better feel for the true state of affairs by adding PEU claims to continued claims. 

Progress in continued claims is not as good as it looks. But none of it matches the BLS unemployment reports.

PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

PUA claims cover part-time workers and self-employed. This program is rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors. 

All Continued Claims in 2020 

All continued claims is the total of everything above except initial claims but the continued claims portion is not seasonally adjusted. 

Since it contains PUA claims this number is also rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.

Expiring Benefits 

The PEUC and PUA programs expire on December 26. 

Expect Congress to have a package by then, but the details are subject to negotiation. 

Democrats and Republicans have been bickering over this since September. 

For discussion, please see Desire to Reach a Deal and Doing It are Two Different Things.

Mish

Comments (15)
No. 1-6
PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Moscow Mitch ready to help.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Must be running out of non-essential employees to let go.

Germann
Germann

Landscapers have an endless supply of jobs in our area, and can't find help. Yes, it is hard work...and you don't get rich, but you can do $20 plus per hour plus decent benefits. At some point people need pushed off unemployment so there is a workforce in the trades. You might not make what you once did, but you can earn a respectable living.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Burglaries are apparently up in McMansion land and I’m seeing the residents on next door.com bark like chihuahuas about “packing heat.” ‘tis the season to shoot a man over stuff you left in your car. This should get interesting as more people get desperate.

Realist
Realist

The US economy is not going to recover and jobs are not coming back until the US deals with the pandemic. Here you are, fighting over relief bills in congress, and complaining about election results while you ignore the pandemic. Is America going to wait for Biden’s inauguration before you do start to do something?

US daily cases:deaths

First 3 days of November

Nov 1 Su 71,321:399

Nov 2 M 88,905:522

Nov 3 T 94,463:1199

First 3 days of December

Dec 1 Tu 184,184:2670

Dec 2 W 203,737 :2833

Dec 3 Th 215,715:2840 (so far)

Mish
Mish

Editor

On flight to Madison WI for stepdaughter's wedding

It was supposed to be a few weeks ago but she caught Covid


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