UK Election Final Polls All Over the Place: Who's Right?

Mish

Still more polls are in. The Tory lead ranges from 5% to 11%.

Some pollsters are going to be eating serious crow tomorrow. Others will be eating steak.

I did not expect to be doing an update tonight, but these final polls are so different, they merit a look.

Survation

Survation Scotland

ComRes

Survation as Modeled by Electoral Calculus

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I caution, that is NOT the Survation prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.

Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final Survation poll is correct (also assuming I entered the Survation data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).

ComRes Final Poll as Entered Into Electoral Calculus

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These ComRes Final Regional Numbers from table 29, literally seem out of this world. Labour is allegedly beating the Tories in the NorthEast, NorthWest, Yorkshire, Wales, West Midlands, and London.

This is possible, just amazingly unlikely, at least in my opinion. Nonetheless, let's assume it is accurate.

ComRes Final as Projected by Electoral Calculus

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I caution, that is NOT the ComRes prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.

Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final ComRes poll is correct (also assuming I entered the ComRes data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).

Bear in mind that even under this extremely (IMO) unlikely (yet conceivable) outcome, the Tories fail by one. Even then, that assumes everyone takes their seats.

Seven Northern Ireland candidates have promise to not not take their seats. They did not take them in 2017 either. So, if that happened again, the Tories would still have a majority.

Hung Parliament Odds

A hung parliament is possible. I rate that about a 10% chance.

But hey, even if my forecast is correct, it is important to note that I will be wrong 10% of the time.

90% is not 100%.

My Forecast

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My forecast has not changed based on these new polls.

Here is Mish's Fearless UK Election Forecast Seat-by-Seat.

For seat-by-seat analysis and my rationale, please click on the above link.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (23)
No. 1-11
wootendw
wootendw

The SNP in the British parliament doesn't matter much but they have a majority in Scotland's parliament.

Assuming the Tories win an outright majority, the SNP may have an impact on what kind of agreement Johnson makes with the EU. If it is a genuine Brexit that even I would like, Scots may do another referendum on independence. If they win, they may decide to take an 'independent' Scotland into the EU but out of NATO. That would be fine with me, but not with the US/UK military/industrial complexes or whatever you want to call them.

This is pure speculation but I suspect that some Americans with dark suits, sunglasses and briefcases may show up in England to have a chat with Johnson soon after the election. If they see any risk in an independent Scotland ditching NATO, they are likely to tell Johnson not to do a good Brexit that might anger the Scots. An independent Scotland won't have much of a military but their geography makes them vital to NATO.

HenryV
HenryV

If they win, they may decide to take an 'independent' Scotland into the EU but out of NATO ————————— What on earth makes anyone think the EU would be interested in a godforsaken place like Scotland? The country is permanently bankrupt, no growth industry, lousy weather and (so far as the SNP is concerned) a backwards looking, vindictive, and thoroughly self-indulgent political agenda. Not the welcoming worldly country that it likes to think it is - far from it. This from someone who lived in Scotland for 12 years! If the UK does somehow leave the UK, I can’t imagine Van der Leyden and the powers that be in the EU wanting to touch Scotland with a barge pole. So far as the majority of English people are concerned - not that 99.999% of them have any concern or even understanding of Scotland, other than the mistaken conception that its a province of England a long way north of Birmingham - I am sure the prevailing attitude is ‘Good luck with independence, Jimmy - GET ON WITH IT!’.

Scooot
Scooot

All eyes on the exit poll, I think they’ve been quite accurate lately.

djwebb1969
djwebb1969

I'm not voting today. I'm in a Conservative safe seat, and will not vote for a Party committed to a non-Brexit Brexit.

TheLege
TheLege

The Scots are a strange bunch - their best people are vey good. Their worst people are the fvcking dregs. In any event, the British Isles need rid of these parasites - the drain on the welfare system is off the dial. No wonder the Independence vote didn't succeed - the 'dependents' know which teat is more reliable!

Anda
Anda

This election is so strung out, an interlude and more down to earth reminder of UK

Latkes
Latkes

@Mish Exit polls:

Conservatives: 368 Labour: 191 SNP 55 Liberal Democrats: 13 Plaid Cymru: 3 Green: 1 Brexit Party: 0 Other: 19

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

First tweet in Telegraph after polls close at 10.01 based on exit polls.

Latkes
Latkes

Now it's the Tories' turn to screw the native UK population.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

First tweet in Telegraph after polls close at 10.01 based on exit polls.

Scooot
Scooot

Well done Mish. Fantastic analysis all through the campaign, really enjoyed reading it.


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