UK Election Final Polls All Over the Place: Who's Right?
Some pollsters are going to be eating serious crow tomorrow. Others will be eating steak.
I did not expect to be doing an update tonight, but these final polls are so different, they merit a look.
Survation as Modeled by Electoral Calculus
I caution, that is NOT the Survation prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final Survation poll is correct (also assuming I entered the Survation data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).
ComRes Final Poll as Entered Into Electoral Calculus
These ComRes Final Regional Numbers from table 29, literally seem out of this world. Labour is allegedly beating the Tories in the NorthEast, NorthWest, Yorkshire, Wales, West Midlands, and London.
This is possible, just amazingly unlikely, at least in my opinion. Nonetheless, let's assume it is accurate.
ComRes Final as Projected by Electoral Calculus
I caution, that is NOT the ComRes prediction nor an Electoral Calculus prediction.
Rather, it is the Electoral Calculus prediction ASSUMING the final ComRes poll is correct (also assuming I entered the ComRes data correctly into the Electoral Calculus model).
Bear in mind that even under this extremely (IMO) unlikely (yet conceivable) outcome, the Tories fail by one. Even then, that assumes everyone takes their seats.
Seven Northern Ireland candidates have promise to not not take their seats. They did not take them in 2017 either. So, if that happened again, the Tories would still have a majority.
Hung Parliament Odds
A hung parliament is possible. I rate that about a 10% chance.
But hey, even if my forecast is correct, it is important to note that I will be wrong 10% of the time.
90% is not 100%.
My forecast has not changed based on these new polls.
For seat-by-seat analysis and my rationale, please click on the above link.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock