Tweets of the Day: Credit Cards, Eurozone, Earnings, Demographics, Treasuries

Mish

Here's another hodgepodge of Tweets by people I follow. There's plenty to think about.

Reflections on 10-Year Yields

Italy

IPO Earnings

Emerging Markets

Emerging Market Sudden Stop

Russell 2000 Breakup Bullish?

Demographics

Euro Bond Spreads

Credit Card Delinquencies

Plenty to think about.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (11)
No. 1-11
Tengen
Tengen

Regarding demographics, there is a big silver lining to lower birth rates/higher marriage ages since it's the pin mostly likely to pop the ridiculous "infinite growth in a finite world" bubble. Also, I'd take demographics like Japan's over China's or India's any day. Low birth rates are OK, but a massive gender imbalance is no joke. We still don't know what the long term effects of tens of millions of men who mathematically cannot find brides will be.

We may as well learn to love birth rates in the US, since catering to only uber-rich and those on public assistance will not change. Marriage as beneficial to women/detrimental to men will also not change anytime soon, too big an industry around divorce.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

Regarding demographics; the lower the population density the better. More environmentally sustainable life, more options even if the economy tanks. Population decline follows closely the decline in economic opportunities for the younger generation; thanks to masters of globalization, and robotization. All countries with high birth rates, and backward economy are hellholes (insert your favorite Trumpism), that everybody wants to escape. This theory likely doesn't feature in your favorite economic fake book.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

@Tengen " We still don't know what the long term effects of tens of millions of men who mathematically cannot find brides will be."
Actually we probably do know what those effects will be. Look at the countries of the Middle East where young men can not find brides because they can not find jobs. The long term effects are violence and civic disruption. Turns out this is a genetic imperative. Folks who study groups of primates see the same kind of behavior. The younger members eventually get fed up with the situation and expel or murder those older members of the group who are in control.

Coasting2018
Coasting2018

Regarding credit card tweet - this is flip side of 'too big to fail' , ie. 'too insignificant to be in business'. A business model based on lending to people none of the 100 largest banks would touch? The problem is not the borrowers at the margins, the problem is these tiny banks existing in the first place ....

Tengen
Tengen

Not saying you're wrong, but the situation in China and the ME is a bit different. In the ME the women are there but the young men are denied access. In that case civil unrest could produce results. In China, the women simply aren't there. The men could lash out anyway but nothing would come from it.

So far, Chinese men haven't emigrated as much as ME men either. Will be interesting to see if the PRC government pushes that angle to Africa or elsewhere.

@Maximus Yep, there can potentially be big benefits to lower population density, but of course the economists and their ilk will fight it tooth and nail. The ponzi needs fuel and increased wages from labor scarcity is never what they want.

Realist
Realist

Regarding those who are cheering low birth rates as a positive demographic trend; While there may be some positives, in the long run, there are a lot of negatives.
With a low birth rate, the demographic grouping would increasingly skew towards the elderly. More and more retired seniors, drawing on Social Security and Medicare, with fewer young people working to support the seniors. This is particularly troubling for the US as Social Security does not invest its funds for the future, but instead relies on the working young to support the retired old.
And with the world’s most expensive health care system (close to double the per capital cost in other developed countries), increased spending on medical care for the elderly will be increasingly difficult to maintain.
The US has been following Japan in many ways, including fiscal and demographic. If you want to see your future, look at Japan.

MntGoat
MntGoat

I agree with Tengen. Countries should take a closer look at letting populations just shrink in developed nations with low birth rates, instead of flooding the country with immigrants from the 3rd world. Japan does exactly this, and its a great place, been there many times. Let nature correct population imbalances naturally. I think "quality of life" has got much worse in many parts of the USA due to pop growth (traffic, ruining natural environments with sprawl, crime, tribalism, polarization, astronomical real estate prices and rents, etc...).

hmk
hmk

What about the stories about Japanese seniors purposely commiting crimes in order to be jailed because they are unable to take care of themselves.

LigiaOzimek
LigiaOzimek

Una tarjeta de crédito puede hacerte la vida mucho más fácil. Lo principal es elegir la tarjeta que más le convenga y usarla correctamente https://creditosenlinea.co/. Puede usar una tarjeta de crédito de muchas maneras. Puede ser una billetera de plástico en la que simplemente se almacena dinero. O tal vez una herramienta de pago conveniente que haga que sus pagos sean seguros e incluso rentables.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY