Tweets of the Day: Covid-19 Deaths Top 34,000

Mish

The numbers of case counts and deaths are flattening but the curves have not turned down yet.

I updated my charts from the Covid-19 Project today. Let's have a look.

New York Coronavirus Cases

New York Coronavirus Cases 2020-04-16

US Coronavirus Cases

US Coronavirus Cases 2020-04-16

It was another bad day today in terms of deaths, with 34,475 but the cases and deaths are mostly flat-lining.

Pakistan a New Hot Spot

Trump Issues New Guidelines

As we knew all along as as discussed in Let's Compare Trump 2020 Comments to Nixon Comments in 1977, this is a matter up to the states.

Trump looked very foolish say he and he alone would make the case when states reopen.

Midwest governors of MI, OH, WI, MN, IL, IN Announce Plan

Previous the West coast states did the same, followed by 7 states in the Northeast including Pennsylvania. That settled the fate over Trump's bluster he would make the call.

No Pro Sports in 2020?

Lawsuits Just Getting Started

That was guaranteed to happen given the near universal short-term outlook of corporations.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (115)
No. 1-20
davebarnes
davebarnes

USA #1
USA #1
The #TrumpVirus and the #TrumpDepression are MAGA

Tanner D
Tanner D

Regarding the curves not turning down. Take a look at Italy’s active cases. Still going up every day. The virus is still spreading faster than people are recovering+deaths. We are 2 weeks behind them. They and we have slowed it down so our hospitals are not overwhelmed, but we are a long way from killing it.

Greggg
Greggg

I have little trust in the stats. No consistency, no cross section. Can't trust the death rate either... too many reports of padding, ect. Ron Paul commented that there is a suspicious number of pneumonia deaths that occurred in previous years that are now missing from the present year data.

Jojo
Jojo

Fake death numbers! NY is throwing the kitchen sink into the death count. All told, the total is likely 10-15k high.

Corto
Corto

To those who believe death padding is being done. Can I please ask for intelligent reasons why? All I ask is the reason not be "so we can beat Trump in November." I am as cynical as many people here, but I cannot believe governors want their economies destroyed just to beat Trump? Nov. 5th, are they really going to want to go "yea! we beat Trump" while there is rioting in every major city because we've been locked down for months?

Realist
Realist

The virus has spread rapidly in developed countries because of the ability of the citizens in those countries to travel throughout the world and bring the virus back to their home countries.

It is still spreading throughout developed countries because it is so contagious. It will take extraordinary efforts (testing, social distancing, repeated isolations) to keep the rate of spread to manageable levels.

In the meantime, the virus now is beginning to spread in the developing world. India, Pakistan, South America, Central America, Africa, etc. By the middle of May, the infection and death numbers coming from those less developed countries will have exploded unless they somehow manage to do a better job of preventing the spread compared to developed countries. That is not likely.

The quick development of treatments over the next 6 months may reduce the number of deaths but not the number of infections.

This means it will keep coming back to developed countries and spreading until such time as a vaccine is available. Which is one or two years away.

The economy will begin to come back in small ways, in fits and starts. But it will be two years or longer before it can claw its way back to the “new normal”, which will be a shadow of what it used to be.

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Mish, you know these numbers are bullshit. New York drop 3700 cases without even formally testing. This is beyond non-sense.

wootendw
wootendw

I talked with my cousin in the London area. My Aunt Barbara died in a nursing home of covid. He sais the hospital staff 'helped' her along due to her age (83). He wasn't allowed to see her until she was unconscious and terminal. Now he must quarantine (which he was doing anyway).

Very little traffic in London right now.

Jojo
Jojo

Someone above asked for some proof that CV death numbers aren't accurate. How about this? And this only one bureaucratic dept that actually (foolishly?) has admitted that this is happening. See last 3 words of the quote?

"New York City’s Health Department said it will now also count any fatality deemed a “probable” coronavirus death, defined as a victim whose “death certificate lists as a cause of death ‘COVID-19’ or an equivalent.”"

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Trump has egg on his face on this one, but more importantly the country has moved forward from closing down to 'open or not to open' issue, which is some sort of progress. Those territories which remain on lockdown on the authority of the governor, will have to answer to their populations who now have a frame of reference in the form of the guidelines.

That said, looks like we are now getting very close to civil war. The Dems (for lack of a better term) have the ability to do this. They will have to answer to their populations in November (if there is still a viable Republic left to vote...).

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Non-sense. New York is clearly over reporting. In a event of this magnitude, you don't assume cause.

Tengen
Tengen

I'm glad the US is reporting deaths and being relatively transparent. You can see counts for cities, counties, states, and of course nationally. A lot of countries are putting out a number with no verification.

China just revised its Wuhan death count upward by 50%. Critics within Iran allege that the deaths are double what's being reported. Ecuador was burning bodies in the streets despite an official death toll of just 403. Supposedly large slums in India are infected, but they're locked down even tighter than the rest of the country and little data is coming out.

Speaking of China finally admitting they've been lying, does anybody here still believe any of their data? They were being loudly touted as a success story for a while, ironically by people who normally despise China and automatically distrust their government.

njbr
njbr

Fire department of NYC (first responder) usually clocks in with 20 to 30 dead a day (on the street or in homes). They have been averaging over 200 dead a day for the last few weeks. Real stats.

njbr
njbr

Nice to know the current ideas floating around the innertubes netwebby thing--today "deaths are being over-reported."

Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Germany have all looked at this in their own countries and the reported, confirmed via testing, death numbers in their own epidemic is only approximately half of the true death toll.

Deal with it.

The numbers we are getting in the US should be regarded as the lower bound of the true death rate.

Realist
Realist

You have to be a moron or a conspiracy theorist to believe that deaths are over-reported. (Oops, moron and conspiracy theorist are the same thing).

There are many, many reasons why deaths are under-reported, but very few, if any, of them are nefarious.

First: Take nursing homes. The majority of nursing home residents have signed DNR (Do Not Resuscitate) forms. So when they get sick, the staff do their best to comfort them, manage the pain, and let them pass in peace. They do not send them to a hospital. Nor do they perform autopsies to determine the cause of death. So staff often list the cause of death depending on what seemed to be the prevalent medical condition. That’s why Alzheimer’s is a very common cause of death, followed by heart and lung issues in nursing homes. Many nursing home deaths that might be associated with Covid19 are not being reported that way, as the resident was never tested for it.

Second: Look at poor people in developed countries (like the US) or entire poor countries. People are dying on the streets or at home without medical care. No one is recording these deaths as Covid19.

Third: Lack of testing all over the world (including the US) means many deaths happen without knowing that Covid19 was the cause.

WildBull
WildBull

@Mish Your plots show accumulated cases. They will never turn down. The downturn will show in new cases per day. Please plot those, too.

jfpersona1
jfpersona1

The one thing that struck me about the cumulative bar chart is that negative cases are 'flatlining' just like positive/hospitalizations/deaths. This isn't a good sign to me -- doesn't this mean that we're just saturating our testing ability but we don't really have any way to determine what's really going on?
Or maybe more basically, wouldn't we expect number of negative cases to start to outstrip positive cases (positive cases flatline while negative cases increase) if we are actually moving over the peak?

Carl_R
Carl_R

Well, now that Covid19 has blasted by the deaths from the flu this year (24,000) and are approaching double that number, I see that the "it's just the flu" crowd have turned to denying the numbers. Nevertheless, the fact remains that by mid-week, Covid will have killed twice as many people in a month and a half as the regular flu killed in an entire year, and that is despite the fact that social distancing has limited it, while the flu had no such limits for most of the year.

Right now we have a very interesting and unusual opportunity to compare them. Social distancing has limited deaths from Covid, and is also currently limiting deaths from the regular flu. Right now Covid is killing about 2,000 people a day in the US. I doubt that the regular flu is killing 20. Thus, it's clear that the danger from the two are far from equal.


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