Trump's Economic Advisors Project No More Covid-19 Deaths Starting May 16

Mish

Using extreme curve fitting, the White House Council  of Economic Advisors made a preposterous forecast.

Based on a cubic fit, the end of the coronavirus threat is supposedly at hand.

CEA Data Visualization 

Negative Deaths

I hope everyone feels better now. But that may change when people start rising from their graves.

Mish

Comments (95)
No. 1-35
Sechel
Sechel

Makes sense given the politics and the context of what else is coming out from Trump land. The plan is to do away with the Covid-19 task force soon. The campaign has decide Trump is vulnerable in November if the economy doesn't come back strong, so the war against the virus is won(look Ma, no casualties 2nd half of the year) and the message is about opening the economy full spigot. if people die that's Ok more people would have died if we didn't open up the economy. Of course no stats for that.

Why are economists projecting mortalities and not the health experts? hmm

gregggg
gregggg

Trump is vulnerable in November if the economy doesn't come back strong... and Joe Biden is? I don't see any choice this election cycle, like we really had a choice to begin with, but there is Justin Amash, who dropped out of the republican party. Dropping out has a political appeal to it.

thimk
thimk

Only a fool would think this is over , be circumspect , don't let your guard down .
But USA really must begin restarting what is left of the economy.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

I am booking my movie theatre seats for May 17th right now.
I mean, Trump has never lied to us before, right?

numike
numike

The president is wearing safety goggles but no mask on his tour of Honeywell PPE manufacturing line https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/1257781069421539329

tokidoki
tokidoki

Already got a cruise booked for May 17th.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Trump can actually make the model work, by adding new births (i.e. negative deaths) into the mix starting from may 16!

tokidoki
tokidoki

"One day — it's like a miracle — it will disappear."

Yep, May 17th is that day guys. Who needs miracles if you can just use an Excel spreadsheet?

Sechel
Sechel

You're being too kind. This wasn't extreme curve fitting. Trump had a number and he told his economics guys to make it work. The real models have all come through Dr. Birx. Trump couldn't corrupt those models so he went to a different group.

AbeFroman
AbeFroman

Either he gets the S&P 500 back to 3,300 or he starts a conflict.

Zardoz
Zardoz

People that die of it after that date will be counted as MAGAMartyrs, because America will be even greater without them.

anoop
anoop

It depends. If more bailouts need to be generated, there will be more deaths. If everyone's belly is full for now, there will be no more deaths.

gregggg
gregggg

AussiePete
AussiePete

"I hope everyone feels better now. But that may change when people start rising from their graves."

Lol - funniest Mish comment ever

fla56
fla56

Mish go and look at the Swedish numbers again

Deaths are indeed collapsing towards almost zero in a matter of weeks

The disease is extremely contagious but nowhere as lethal as thought

And it has certain very high risk groups while leaving others alone

njbr
njbr

There is a certain depth of bone-deep stupidity that releases this steaming pile of feces when it will be proven deadly wrong in two weeks.

Rex Tillerson had it exactly right.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

The virus will magically disappear in April. You can count on it. .... haha I didn’t say April of which year!

Realist
Realist

Poor Trump. If only he could control all the press in his country, like in North Korea. Then his strategy of lies, mistruths, and rewriting history would work on everyone, instead of just his supporters.

He could then disband his task force and say something stupid like ´we achieved our goals ‘.

After that he could pretend that the virus was gone and the deaths were over.

Unfortunately for Trump, the press will continue showing new cases and new deaths each day.

What is most shocking though is that the federal government seems to not be putting into place the testing and tracing system that would be required nationwide to allow the economy to safely reopen. What’s up with that? It’s like they want to go through this all again, over and over, until proper treatments and vaccines are available. Hard to understand.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Trump is keeping his promise: MAGA! By eliminating most pensioners above 65 years old! This way the USA will become younger and without social burdens!

Tengen
Tengen

This is an asinine prediction. It's one thing to announce wildly optimistic forecasts on the economy or the Forever Wars, where one can claim unforeseen factors came into play when goals are unmet.

I don't know how they can explain this away when Covid deaths continue after 5/16. Maybe they can blame China for failing to report data to give a more complete picture, but that has been obvious for months.

Remember kids, if you're going to lie, make sure you have some sort of exit plan if you're caught!

davebarnes2
davebarnes2

Carl_R
Carl_R

Trump will win easily if his estimate is correct. Wouldn't want to be in his shoes if he is wrong, though.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

It is apparent from eyeballing the Worldometer chart of U.S. daily deaths that the average death rate has been declining roughly 5% per week with ever larger swings between weekdays and weekends (Why the increasing swings? Are people tired of counting the dead on weekends?). Daily new cases also looks to be declining 3% to 5% per week, but the total number of active cases in the US is still increasing about 14% per week. There must be a higher proportion of positive outcomes due to improving medical treatment or tests detecting a greater number of minor cases. Nonetheless, a significant fraction of the increasing active cases will still end in death. Given that increase, I am somewhat surprised the daily death rate is already trending down.

It is obvious the cubic curve fit is nonsense. With parts of the US re-opening while active cases are still increasing, even the “worst case” IHME 5/4 model is probably too optimistic. I think the US should re-open, with mouth and nose covering for everyone and self-isolation for high risk individuals, and we will be lucky to see the rate of new cases continue to decline in that environment.

I wonder who at the White House thought the cubic fit curve was a good idea? It is absurd.

magoomba
magoomba

Mutate or die.
We will just quit counting.

Pater_Tenebrarum
Pater_Tenebrarum

It is not too big of a stretch to expect resurrections this year. I hear that around election time, thousands of voters tend to miraculously jump out of their eternal resting places like a flock of young gazelles to cast one last vote so they can finally rest in peace.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump wants to move on. He visited a Honeywell N95 mask factory without wearing one himself of course but the workers apparently let their feelings be known. They piped the music to "live and let die" over the speakers

WildBull
WildBull

The infection rate and death rate are creeping up in spite of the restrictions. Just what is the answer? Of course this prediction is hooey. Still no good choices

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"the White House Council of Economic Advisors made a preposterous forecast."

...

Oh, just another par on their outlandish course.

February 25th:

“We have contained this. I won’t say [it’s] airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight,” Kudlow told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on “The Exchange.” He added that, while the outbreak is a “human tragedy,” it will likely not be an “economic tragedy.”

njbr
njbr

A month and a half of mitigation effects.

60,000 deaths in the month of April.

Oh, only 60,000 dead in the last month--what's the big deal--lets open full-bore.

That's some stinkin' thinkin'.

What would you think the deaths would be without mitigation, eh Einsteins?

Which way--forward up or forward down?

At a 3 to 5% exposure rate, getting to 60% would be somewhere between 12 to 20 times more illness and deaths (840K to 1,400K).

Winning so much, we're already tired of it.

Either way, it will be a long and bloody slog.

WildBull
WildBull

@njbr NYC has about 21% exposure rate and 15000 deaths. Extrapolate and we end up with about 600,000 deaths nation wide until it burns through. At 3000 deaths a day, we'll be done with covid 19 just about the time a vaccine is available.

Montana33
Montana33

Wow! This projection will be trashed within the week. I’m curious to see their next update. So everyone should look at Hawaii who has beaten Covid. Strict quarantines and lockdowns have prevailed there.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

It will get worse before it gets better. I suspect at some point this summer a capitulation. There will be shutdowns in places that cannot handle the capacity of ill people into the hospital.

Sechel
Sechel

So now the pandemic task force is not disbanding. Trump says it was Pence's idea and we're not doing it

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill

As he begins to dissolve and then revive the virus task force...

abend237-04
abend237-04

This is actually very good news for the fifty South Koreans infected by a single celebratory bar hopper recently. If they, and all those whom they have subsequently infected, can all hang on for only five more days, they're safe...or does the spreadsheet only protect U.S. citizens?


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