Trump Worried About 2.2 Million Deaths, Extends Shutdown Through April

Mish

President Trump address the nation tonight and extended social distancing guidelines through April.

Trump's National Address

The press conference started 43 minutes late. To watch the video move the timeline to the 43 minute mark.

The press conference was about two hours long.

Trump Comments

"We will be extending our guidelines through April 30 to slow the spread. On Tuesday we will finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings, supporting data, and strategy to the American people."

"We will have an important statement tuesday, probably Tuesday evening, on all of the finding and all of the data and the reasons we are doing things the way we are doing them."

"We can expect that by June 1, we will be well on our way to recovery"

Dr. Anthony Fauci Comments

"The decision to prolong, not prolong, but to extend this mitigation process until the end of April I think was a wise and prudent decision. Dr. [Deborah] Birx and I spent a considerable time going over all the data, why we felt this was best choice of us and the president accepted it. The idea that we may have these cases played a role in the decision that we don't do something prematurely and pull back when we should be pushing."

1.6 Million to 2.2 Million Deaths - Doing Nothing

The comments by Dr. Fauci were in reference to models, also mentioned by Trump, that showed if nothing was done, there would be 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths.

80,000 to 200,000 Deaths - With Successful Intervention

"If we can hold that down, to 100,000 - it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000 so we have between 100,000 to 200,000 - we all together have done a very good job,” said Trump.

With social distancing, quarantines, and work stoppages, the models suggested a range of 80,000 to 200,000 deaths according to Dr. Fauci.

Easter Peak

Trump had hoped to reopen the economy by Easter, Sunday April 12, but instead accepted the advice of Doctors Fauci and Birx.

As I understand it, the best model now suggests acceleration through April 12 but no trough until June 1.

“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before victory is won,” said Trump. “It’s very important that everybody strongly follow the guidelines.”

A reporter asked Trump about the Easter restart (now cancelled) and Trump said said it was not a mistake because it was "aspirational".

Trump was also very testy with a reporter from CNN.

Empathy

Trump displayed a quality I have never seen in him before: empathy. He spoke of black body bags as long as trucks and said "it's not supplies, it's people. I've never seen anything like it."

In reference to Italy, Trump says "We got lucky".

That's certainly a new behavior.

The Trump administration response was slow and nothing to brag about. But any administration in any party would have been slow then bragged if they did anything at all.

Importantly, Trump finally took the advice of his medical team seriously.

Now, June 1 is "modified aspirational because I think we are going to hit it."

Pence came on at roughly the 2:17:20 mark. Pence spoke of the sacrifices the nation has made, and thanked the American people and the healthcare workers.

Press Conference Rating

  • Trump: A
  • Pence: A+
  • Doctors and Industry Leaders: A+

Those are my ratings.

Other than getting into it with CNN and bragging about how early the US reacted, Trump handled himself very well and presidential.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (39)
No. 1-18
Greggg
Greggg

We had a very tiny change in the slope in the curve of the infection rate in Michigan today... very easily within the statistical error margin. Not looking good here at all. I think we are gonna be out til June.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I hope we see more of this Trump. This is exactly what he needs to do. I set it out in a previous comment:

  1. Put the best people he could find in charge
  2. Defer to the experts, praise them, and back them up, and always treat is as a serious problem
  3. Give the experts the resources they need
  4. Call for the country to unify in an effort to defeat this, and work with Governors of both parties equally.
  5. Stay out of the way, and don't contradict the experts
    I could add #6
  6. Show empathy

He made progress towards #2, #3, #5, and #6.

davebarnes
davebarnes

I had hoped he would encourage his evangelical base to pack Easter services. MAGA

sangell
sangell

And Donald Trump is the President. Best hope he does what is best because he has the job. There is no magic solution. I'd rather have the Florida State police shoot every person with a New York or New Jersey license plate or ID because they might be infected and kill me.r
Believe me in my part of the country the officer might be acquitted by a jury 'for doing his civic' duty.

This is a real life or death problem so I would advise New Yorkers and other diseased hot spots to tread carefully and hope Trump can keep us from defending ourselves.

Zardoz
Zardoz

"Trump displayed a quality I have never seen in him before: empathy."

I don't know which is less likely: him actually having empathy or him submitting to being coached on how to present as empathetic.

numike
numike

The first case of COVID-19 or the coronavirus hit the United States Jan. 19, 70 days ago, but President Donald Trump sent 17.8 tons of personal protective equipment (PPE) to China as cases were ramping up here at home. The State Department sent out on Feb. 7 announced they would be sending up to $100 million in assistance to China so they could better handle the COVID-19 cases.

lol
lol

It's all fake,pretty clear what's goin on,DC was near default (collapse)on it's dept,it needed cover for trillions in bailout cash,so with the help of China (in exchange for lifting tariffs)the Coronascam was born,how convinient!Now the Fed has cover to print quadrillions!

Mr. M
Mr. M

Trump, Empathy??? He knows that China, Wuhan will have been in a "real" lock down for 77 days before opening the city's door to the rest of China on April 3rd. The US started its semi-isolation, non-essential business and gatherings program March 22nd. End of April will have been 39 days. What could go wrong???

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Trump and empathy in one sentence? You need to be a trumptard to believe it’s not faked.

lol
lol

Massie was the only one in DC to realize he was bein played,ask yourself this......why if we are in a "pandemic",the Fed printing $trillions almost daily,why is all that loot goin just 2 places....bail out (bankrupt)state and federal govt (again)and bailout (bankrupt)corporations (again),whatever crumbs left over will be used on main street to fight the "pandemic"

Greggg
Greggg

... and then there's this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVQbc7W2_68

wootendw
wootendw

Based on progression from 3/10 (1000 cases) until today (139,773), cases are doubling every 2.666 days and will reach 1 million in 7-8 days.

rob_abides
rob_abides

" But any administration in any party would have been slow then bragged if they did anything at all."

You had me until here, sir. The bar for his performance is so low, one empathetic comment gets him credit?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Sad to say but I think a normal president would have handled this pandemic with more urgency. I will give out grades come September.

Jojo
Jojo

At nearly 2500 USA deaths as I write this, there is a long way to go to get to 80-200k! I don't think anyone is going to be able to justify shutting down the whole economy due to this scaremongering.

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

Maybe we could bring back "Heck of a job Brownie." I'm sure Jeb! would have been the sane choice, right?

silvermitt
silvermitt

"Trump was also very testy with a reporter from CNN."

Who cares about that. Who doesn't get "testy" from time to time, and especially at unfriendly sources looking to find a way to make a person look worse. The media hasn't been friendly to this administration since before the office was even won, so excuse a person for not caring about this part of speech analysis. What I DO care about is that the federal level gov is trying to ramp up efforts to halt this disease from killing a significant number of the population. There has been good and bad from them, and that's how humans do things. When the world had to go on whatever came out of China as resource for learning it and fighting it off, the world was screwed royally, because China would rather lie than be honest.

Cocoa
Cocoa

Like him or hate him, if Donald Trump doesn't succeed on this and restoration of economy then we all will fail with him...as in going back to Stone Age


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY