Trump Tweets "Manufacturing Blowout": What's the Real Story?

Mish

President Trump quickly hopped on the GM strike-end surge in jobs. Let's have a look.

Manufacturing Blowout

Manufacturing Employment

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The last two months average +5.5. there is no surge in manufacturing employment.

Employment in Motor Vehicles and Parts

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Average out the last two months and you get an impressive -1 in October and an equally impressive -1 in November. That's a small decline in 7 of the last 9 months.

Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours Year-Over-Year

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Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours Year-Over-Year Detail

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That chart is the most telling of the lot.

Despite the end of the strike there is no improvement in manufacturing hours of actual production workers!

Seasonal Adjustments

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Much of that rebound is related to the GM strike that ended on October 25.

Some of it is a calendar-related seasonal adjustment.

BLS sampling started within days of the strike ending. Then, Thanksgiving came into play giving an additional seasonal boost.

Yet, manufacturing hours of actual production workers did not even budge.

Blowout?

For further discussion of today's jobs report, please see Jobs Surge in Strike-Ending and Seasonal Adjustment Rebound.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (20)
No. 1-8
KidHorn
KidHorn

The BLS have become masters at making the jobs report paint a rosier picture than reality. Been at it for decades.

Mish
Mish

Editor

In defense of the BLS actual workers, I have spoken to them on many occasions I find them bright, responsive, and helpful.

They have their hands tied behind their backs. Some of these seemingly inane concoctions like the birth-death model are because they do not have access to the actual data.

This is due to a security concern. They are not allowed to see SS numbers. In turn this means SS numbers are not encrypted. They should be.

But a sort-merge operation could weed out duplicate SS numbers so there is no need to see them. But bottom line they do not have access to the data so we see screwy things.

That said, despite my belief these are generally bright, dedicated, and hard-working individuals, these jobs should not exist at all. Gallup and other pollsters could do these unemployment projections better and at less cost. etc etc etc

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Mish, your comments make perfect sense, just like David Stockman's insistence for many years now that the economy is about to crash. But what counts is Mr. Market's opinion on that, and Mr. Market is very bullish.

dingbat
dingbat

I don't know how to reconcile this, but Canada had its worst month for job losses in more than 10 years. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-canadian-economy-posts-worst-month-for-job-losses-in-a-more-than/

Anecdotally, wages have been flat or declining during that same period. Supposedly we're 'on fire', but I'm just not seeing that on the ground. I work in IT, though, so maybe it differs by industry.

lol
lol

All job growth is in the public sector,healthcare,military,welfare,prison industrial complexes,prison guards,parole officer,prison custodians,booming prison industrial complex.

Flanders
Flanders

Mish wrote: "@MM and @thimk get what I am saying

'I suspected that they have to toil with models and formulas dreamed up by some academics before their profession was exposed as fraud by real life events. Same as with inflation calculation.' "

In other words (though Mish will never admit it) -- its fake news and Trump was correct from the start. Now Trump tweets the fake news, mocking it every step of the way ... and the never-Trumpers get angry that Trump has exposed the emperor has no clothes.

Mish can't separate his hatred of Trump from the message Trump has been sending from the get go.

Sechel
Sechel

Trump likes to tout manufacturing but its the service economy that is the real hero of the American economy. And that's not McDonald type jobs. We manufacture more with less people every year. That's simply a fact and we'll never excel at commodity manufacturing but value added specialty goods(our labor costs are simply too high)


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