Trump No Longer the Odds-On Favorite to Win in November

Mish

Four days ago Biden passed trump as the favorite to win in November and has been there ever since.

Until now, the one thing Trump supporters could and did repeat was their guy was ahead. That's no longer the case.

A quick check on PredictIt shows Biden is ahead of Trump and has been there for a while.

That chart is stale by a day. As I type, it is 54-47. 

Bible-Toting Fiasco

Trump's bible toting fiasco was the impetus for the change.

Something Changed for the Better: Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

On June 3, I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

Trump made a complete fool out of himself. Fout Republican Senators criticized his photo-op stunt as did Mike Mullen , Seventeenth chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Millen wrote an Op-Ed: I Cannot Remain Silent.

James N. Miller Resigns

James N. Miller, Defense Science Board Member and former under secretary of defense for policy from 2012 to 2014 resigned.

Miller accused Trump and Secretary of Defense Esper of blatant actions that cross the line.

Retired Marine General Latest to Admonish Trump

On June 4, a Retired Marine General Admonished Trump.

Retired top Marine Gen. John Allen joins Mattis dissent from Trump.

Allen warns of 'Beginning of the End' for Democracy if troops are used against protests.

Facts of the Matter

Clearly, some people are still in denial.

How do I know that?

Easy.

  1. It is not often four Republican Senators openly blast Trump.
  2. It is not often that only 2 Republican Senators defend Trump.
  3. It is not often retired admirals blast a sitting president
  4. It is not often an ex-Defense Secretary blasts a sitting president
  5. It is not often a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says "I Cannot Remain Silent."
  6. It is not often someone turns in their resignation to the current Defense Secretary, accusing the Secretary and Trump of "crossing the line".

Trump's supporters look the other way.

They fabricate excuses like the protest was not peaceful, besides "It was not teargas". 

Amazing Lengths

Trump's supporters twist themselves in knots to avoid admitting he did anything wrong.

Regardless of denials something snapped. 

 I chimed in with the same message Trump is a Threat to the Constitution.

“Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us,” Mattis writes. “We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. 

Trump's Disapproval Over Time

Trump Approval Disapproval Time Line

Trump's core support is about 36-38%.

These people will vote for Trump no matter what he does. But except for one brief moment at election time Trump cannot break the 45% approval line.

A quick check on the 538 Trump Tracker shows Trump is still at 41.6%.

This election will not be wonm nationally but at the state level. There, Trump continues to fall further and further begind.

Mish

Comments (98)
No. 1-26
ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

We can but hope.

Montana33
Montana33

Hillary had better numbers than Biden right before the election and then Democrats didn’t bother to vote and were also suppressed. It is important to track these things - yes - but Democrat voters are flaky and have lower turnout and likely Democrat voters don’t register or vote by the millions. There is a lot of “someone else will take care of it - I’m too busy attitudes”. Republicans are older and whiter and more likely to vote. The best thing Biden can do is hide and let Trump defeat himself. No one should be confident about the Democrat voter base. They’ll take a survey and go to a protest and then won’t vote.

jfs
jfs

It doesn't look good for Trump. But I think it's bizarre that people think he's the one who's dividing the country. It truly is the media.

One example of the divisive media is the recent riots over George Floyd's death.

I agree with Jared Taylor, who says in yesterday's podcast:

10:48 - It's not the police who need reform. It's the media. This crisis will not end until the press stop presenting a false and dangerously inflamed picture of the American justice system.

Rioting and looting are wrong, no matter what the reason.
Rioting and looting over an illusion, because of something that isn't even true - that's a tragedy.


Police Racism: A Manufactured Crisis (from American Renaissance, June 5 2020)

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Texas is in swing state territory. Based on state level polling Biden has 238 electoral votes and Trump has 202. Trump would literally have to sweep not only every tossup state but also Republican strongholds like Georgie and Texas where Biden is running even. The Senate also has an increasing chance of flopping to the Democrats as firewalls like Kentucky and 10 other Republican states could flip. Trump has really made a mess of his and the party by his name's chances as more Republican senators increasingly dont even go to their state when Trump is visiting. This could be a repeat of the 2008 election.

meowing4u
meowing4u

We get it. In the meantime we know the banking cabel will make that decision for us. We've been well trained spineless, obedient boot-licking sheep to believe voting matters (and that covid-19 will wipe out humanity unless we stand 6 feet from each other).

Sunriver
Sunriver

The story of the year is not Trump behind in the polls, not the virus, nor an evil cop in Minneapolis. The story of the year is the FED buying corporate bonds directly. Certainly equity purchases by the FED through ETFs and guaranteed incomes/no cost health care through Congressional bills is all in play with or without Trump. Biden 'The crypt keeper' will promote all such policies. And we used to believe that Communism/Socialism was evil? Where is Harry Truman when you need him? Ron Paul perhaps? The political parties/media will be the ruin of us all.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

I think things will swing back after the revelations from upcoming Durham investigation/prosecutions. But we won't know until we get there...

Sechel
Sechel

Just think these were mainly forced errors. Trump should get more credit for Biden's lead than Biden himself. Trump had it easier in 2016. Four years ago Trump had no record. People could project onto Trump any future record they wanted. Trump now has a record he owns full of failures and lack of accomplishment.

P.T. Barnum can only fool people so long.

This is what a Trump presidency is like:

Herkie
Herkie

Mish, the map above is identical to the one I posted last week elsewhere, except I make Ohio a slight lean to Biden. And I can see Georgia being a true toss up though I left it leaning Trump.

The reason for my guess that Ohio will flip to blue (as will NC, PA, MI, WI from last time around) is that in each of those states the Trump margin of victory last time was smaller than the African American population that did not bother to vote for Hillary but had voted for Obama. Now those people are supremely angry and they will go to the polls for Biden to spite Trump. And in the case of NC you have the added down ballot vote for senate that has the senates' most unpopular senator up against a popular opponent.

Did you know that in all three major urban centers in Ohio, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus, the population is greater than 30% black? I was in college there when OJ Simpson was acquitted and it was a really difficult day for white people there. The black community more or less terrorized whites in their jubilation. Who can celebrate a blood thirsty killer like him? Yet the degree to which they acted spontaneously and in concert spiting white people was pretty amazing to see. Not much fun to go through. It would be impossible for most of your readers to gauge the anger out there for white people among blacks if you do not live with it daily, some of it is even deserved.

The only real surprise and it is mild at that, is Arizona. Formerly one of the most true red conservative states in the country and in some ways it still is. But, it IS a conservative state true to the likes of Barry Goldwater, and it does not see the clowncar shitshow called Donald Trump as truly conservative, which it is not. Well, unless the GOP has changed the definition of "conservative" to merely anti democrat.

AZ has been getting bluer and bluer with the years, and the proof of both that and the GOP governor's sheer stupidity is that the GOP and democrats both ran a woman and the democrat woman won. The GOP candidate was a Trumpite too weird even for the Arizona GOP and she lost handily to democrat Sinema in a red state. Then John McCain died and their shit for brains governor Doug Ducey (yes it is perfectly okay to call him DOUCHEY) appointed that cow to finish out his term. It was then and still is political theater that was intended to kiss Trump's ass in his ongoing war with John McCain, a true conservative. And who did the democrats run against this conspiracy minded republican shill? Mark Kelly, a decorated navy captain and former astronaut who is married to Gabby Giffords. Even though she has become a staunch gun control advocate she is beloved in AZ after she was shot in the head by a would be assassin that shot 18 people including her, six of whom died.

And last, we here all have been unanimous in our belief that the recovery of the economy was going to be a lot longer and harder than the V shaped recovery you read about every day at CNBC and other right leaning financial media. One thing for certain is that even if they are just partly right we still will be in economic difficulty going into the November 3 election. And no president has ever survived an economy that went from good to horrible with double digit unemployment to go on and win in November.

I have to say that the federal government/democrats went basically off the rails in their knee jerk generosity to the "unemployed," giving $600 per week on top of regular UI payments from states to anyone with a pulse that had been working on any level and stopped for any reason when Covid hit. Millions were/are still raking in over $80k per year in benefits for sitting on their ass at home whether or not they would have been qualified under normal circumstances. But no matter how we feel about that the GOP in DC (Moscow Mitch and his senate republican borg) have said quite sincerely that UI benefit will NOT be extended under any circumstances. So come the end of next month those people will see the last UI check, and many will go back to work (possibly in their new luxury automobiles) but at least ten million more will remain at home many without even state unemployment benefits. My estimate is that at least half of the forty plus million who stopped being employed for whatever reason are not going to have a job to go to when their UI ends. You cannot have 20 million people of voting age legitimately scared about their futures and win elections. So while I loath McConnell and his ilk I was quite pleased when he announced that the overly generous bennies would end next month because politically it will be an IED that he just drove the entire GOP over.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

I suspect that Trump is now starting to get backed into a corner. Over the next couple of months the Republican Party members are going to realize that Trump is a millstone around their necks and will start trying to distance themselves from him politically. The Republican candidates could very likely face a rout come November if they can’t figure out how to isolate themselves from an ever more desperate President Trump.

Blurtman
Blurtman

It's the economy, stupid.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

For those of you who truly want to drain the swamp I suggest contributing to Amy McGrath’s election campaign in her run against Mitch McConnell. Send a massive message to Senator O’Connell that his support of a corrosive president comes at a price.

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer

It's early days and these trading markets are very thin. I look at the much more actively traded US Equities markets, which are not predicting a win for the Biden/Warren dream team. While an interesting topic to kick around, our speculation is missing the developments of the next five months. These will determine the outcome. Among the issues that will trend away from the Ds are: Lockdown hypocrisy and the upcoming Covid wave 1A from the packed in protests; "defund the police"; the disproportional economic impact on blue cities; fear of looting and lawlessness. Among the issues that will trend away from Trump are: continued defection by mainstream Rs, the drumbeat of MSM coverage of Trump's many inflammatory statements and internal strife, economic deterioration (especially if we get a "protest wave" AND a Fall wave of Covid); focus on the risk of a swing in judicial ideology to strong conservative. All that said if the economies in rural /suburban regions in WI, MI, PA, NC, FL and AZ come back reasonably by November, Trump will have a big tailwind.

Dexter EU
Dexter EU

Trump supporter over here - not because he's doing a good job but because the alternative is worse AND it makes for great comedy, watching from across the pond (not that the "leaders" over here are any better, but still).

Quoting Mattis without criticizing the quote triggered me to reply. “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us,” - time for some whataboutism. Appalling how Mattis chooses to completely ignore Obama's reaction to the Ferguson unrest. Actually, Obama in many ways was the first president in decades to increase racist tensions by applying the "divide and conquer" strategy to races. Trump may not be doing a great job, but let's not pretend Obama wasn't worse.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

This is just more political kabuki theater. If that many Republicans wanted Trump out of office, they would have done one of two things: Found him guilty through the impeachment process OR held primaries to select a new candidate. Neither actions took place, so they are closet Trump supporters. Much of this disapproval by high level Republicans is nothing more than trying to convince voters to re-elect THEM.

Harbour
Harbour

Trump 2020!

JJinTexas
JJinTexas

PLEASE do yourself and your readers a major favor and either start carefully proofreading your columns before they are published or hire a professional to proof them.

The numerous typos and poor syntax detract from what you're trying to do.

Words matter.

channelstuffing
channelstuffing

What has Trump done in 3 years other than rack up dept and pretend everything is "booming"?Obama got away with it and somehow managed to get relected,but how long can you pull that scam?6 trillion dollar annual deficits with nothin (less than nothin)to show for it!

abend237-04
abend237-04

It's a long way from being pissed at Trump, an obvious megalomaniac, to voting for Biden, and the real next president in waiting.
It's waaaay too early to read the election tea leaves of November. We don't even know if the four cop's not guilty riots will be underway by then.

The-Blacklist
The-Blacklist

I wonder if any of the white people commenting that there is no such thing as police brutality specifically against blacks knows any actual black people. Or if they have asked any black people about there experiences with police. You can ask me. I have had my civil and human rights violated by police officers multiple times, while no crimes were being committed by me. You live in denial because you are racist, and you view the police as some type of force that stands up for and protects white people from the savage abuses of black people. That if not for the police, we would overrun your country, kill and enslave you, rape your women and destroy your communities. Well, sorry, but that's not what WE do, that's what YOU do. I mean thats the reason I'm in America right? Your ancestors didn't want to do their own work. So miss me with that BS alt-right, white supremacist viewpoint that you try to veil under the cover of intelligence, of which you have none. Any person that believes that the United States is not a nation COMPLETELY built and dependent upon a racist system is a true idiot. I challenge any of you to do anything better than jack off, get on the internet and say of bunch of weak, false crap, and then go cower under your bed because the big black man might get you. Racism is such a weak minded philosophy its almost funny, but its not. So understand that from this point on, if you want to be racist, there will be consequences. You won't see them coming, but they will personally affect you. The lives of any bigot or racist, all of you in fact, are about to be ruined. Come get some!

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

JanNL
JanNL

I hope you're wrong... He may not be very presidential, but his instincts are more right then wrong. As opposed to those of the other party.

jd72
jd72

Anyone who thinks any Democrat/ Socialist Commie would be better than ANY Republican needs to start using their head,they make it very clear they hate this country and anyone who doesn't agree with them. You can kiss your private sector job and retirement including social security goodbye as they will quickly ruin whats left of the economy and destroy most if not all small business. For gods sake just look at the likes of AOC and Pelosi,Trump is a long way from perfect but the alternative is suicide.

Jack and Joan
Jack and Joan

When Sleepy Joe puts his foot in his mouth that will end his campaign

mcgoverntm
mcgoverntm

I'm an anarcho-capitalist libertarian and no fan of Trump. Trump has slipped lately, but the head-to-head campaign won't start until after the nominating conventions. What will happen when Biden and Trump face each other in a live debate? Biden will stumble, fumble, mumble, and otherwise convince all of the "undecideds" that he's mentally-feeble.

debracarter
debracarter

Some people, all they wanted to do is, "blame shame". So, I used to say," sorry" all the time. That way, we could get on with our agenda, life, & keep going. It was simple, & I knew that, I didn't do the ugly deed, & what was the hurt? Now, people are saying it to me, by the hundreds@conversation , @ one point, since 2000! I hope all these negative comments, that are about Trump, will come to light, & I'm aware, he usually is, "doing it again"! Once you figure that out, then, you'll be more aware. It's not easy to be in any higher position right now. Maybe someday, you'll figure it out!