Trump is Losing His Grip in More Battleground States

Mish

Betting odds shows Trump is trailing in seven of 10 key swing states.

Predictit betting odds show Trump is a 13 percentage point underdog to Biden in the 2020 election. 

Swing States Tilting Blue

  1. Arizona: 62
  2. Florida: 55
  3. Michigan: 74
  4. Minnesota: 77
  5. New Hampshire: 73
  6. North Carolina: 56
  7. Pennsylvania: 69

Swing States Tilting Red

  1. Georgia: 57
  2. Iowa: 59
  3. Ohio: 57

Iowa, and Georgia are not supposed to be in play, but they are. 

Spotlight Texas

Of the two most recent Texas polls,  Biden is tied for the lead in one, and down by a mere point in the other. 

Betting Odds Changed With Photo-Op Stunt

Trump lost the lead following his disastrous photo-op bible stunt in the wake of the George Floyd murger by a Minnesota police officer.

Following the photo-op incident I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

Numerous ranking ex-military officers and ranking Republicans spoke out against Trump. 

Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.

For details, please see The Trump Spotlight Shifts to Colin Powell.

Preposterous Tweet

Trump slid further following a ridiculous Tweet in which  Trump Defended Police Who Cracked a 75-Year Old Man's Head.

Trump made the preposterous claim that 75-year old Martin Gugino "could be an ANTIFA provocateur". 

Trump further claimed Gugino "appeared to scanning police communications to black out the equipment".

I posted 4 images from a video that show Gugino was holding a cell phone. 

Click on the above link for more details including a video.

Mish

Comments (25)
Mish
Mish

Editor

Wow Quatloo - I may need to do another post

rum_runner
rum_runner

The debates will be key. If Biden stumbles and mumbles people will figure it's better to go with the devil you know.

rojogrande
rojogrande

Polling is meaningless until Biden picks a VP. A good pick and the race is probably over, a bad pick and the race will be on again given the likelihood Biden can't finish a term. Did any of the "ranking" Republicans listed support Trump in 2016? I think that's a roll call for Never Trump. I can see where Trump's performance may not change their minds to support him, but they never supported him to begin with so what they say probably matters little to actual voters. Trump is likely to do more to alienate people, but the ball is really in Biden's court.

So if we're talking odds, what are the odds Biden makes a good VP pick?

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Wow, is Trumps ego that fragile that a single poll rattles him. Interesting to see what happens when he falls further behind. Second wave of cv19 seems to be showing up already, I wasnt expecting it till the fall.

Tengen
Tengen

I still can't decide if the Trump/Biden debates will be the best or worst thing ever to air on television. It's hard to imagine this is what Philo Farnsworth had in mind when he helped invent the medium 90 years ago.

Fl0yd
Fl0yd

I dread a uni-color congress and WH.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Good coverage, well presented and argued.

Based on reality as it is now, Trump won't win re-election. But five months is a lifetime in politics, especially right now.

If the pandering to bogus BLM guilt-tripping changes as conservatives with a public profile begin to reject the thesis and grow a backbone, and if the depth and scope of the sedition mounted against Trump is revealed in a clear, convincing way - ideally with prosecutions - and if the economy recovers better than expected (like happening with mortgage market right now), and if Antifa funding reveals too many uncomfortable truths about the manufactured outrage operations, then we might just start to see a major sea-change. A 20% pendulum swing is huge in electoral politics.

The number of predictions - with or without supporting data - convincing everyone that Trump is soon toast is legion, albeit thus far mainly wrong. So we'll see if the Orange Idiot Monster is finally meeting his Waterloo, or if biased analysis will once again bite into nothing but dust.

jacob_zuma
jacob_zuma

Mish, in two months people will forget about this. If Trump avoids more stupid moves like the Church photo (admittidely a tall order), and focuses on Biden's sexual assault allegations and weakness on China, he might still have a shot.

Jack and Joan
Jack and Joan

When 78 year old sleepy Joe wakes up and finds out where he is, his poll numbers will go down. I can't wait for the debate between sleepy Joe and Trump. Unless the DNC won't let him debate.

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill

There is a positive of a Biden presidency. Think of Joe as fertilizer that gives the GOP the nutrients they need to become the party of small government and fiscal conservatism again. When we have a Republican president, those values tend not to be watered and fertilized.


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