Trump Blames Fake News Media and Oil

Mish

Fake news is everywhere. Let's take a look.

The DOW is down about 6.5% and the S&P 500 over 6%.

Q: Why?

A: Fake news and oil.

Good News on Fake News

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Thank you Mike Pence and the Task Team, especially communications czar Pence for stopping the spread of fake news. Uh.. wait a minute on that.

And look at all their other accomplishments, like. Hmmm. I will have a list this afternoon because there are too many accomplishments to list at the moment.

Meanwhile, please note our best in the world job of testing. Only those we have tested have the coronavirus because we are smart enough to only test those we are pretty sure have it.

Meanwhile

How the Tune Changes

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (57)
No. 1-20
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

FOMC meets next week. Will they wait that long before pulling trigger on something major?

Whenever and whatever, will it be enough? (ie: Mr market react favorably)

hint: NO

Zardoz
Zardoz

Largest stock drop EVER! It's unbelievable... everyone is talking about it!

Stuki
Stuki

On another note: Are anyone who expect to have to pay rather than receive a return, going to file and pay taxes by tax date, if they are holed up at home and trying to conserve as much cash as possible for a protracted emergency? Or will they "deal with that later?"

az_dirt
az_dirt

This explains a great deal: https://www.verywellmind.com/an-overview-of-the-dunning-kruger-effect-4160740

So what explains this psychological effect? Are some people simply too dense, to be blunt, to know how dim-witted they are? Dunning and Kruger suggest that this phenomenon stems from what they refer to as a "dual burden." People are not only incompetent; their incompetence robs them of the mental ability to realize just how inept they are.

Incompetent people tend to:

Overestimate their own skill levels
Fail to recognize the genuine skill and expertise of other people
Fail to recognize their own mistakes and lack of skill
Dunning has pointed out that the very knowledge and skills necessary to be good at a task are the exact same qualities that a person needs to recognize that they are not good at that task. So if a person lacks those abilities, they remain not only bad at that task but ignorant to their own inability.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Trump's making a mistake. If the death rate is bad, the dems will have plenty of ammo. Better to shut up and if things work out, he can crow all he wants afterwards.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

Wait until there are enough test kits to test everyone who is symptomatic, and the number confirmed is going to skyrocket.

Sunriver
Sunriver

Time for the FED to start directly buying equities (S&P 500 only. Keep it within the USA of course. What a joke that will be in a globalized economy!) and negating the debt of zombie corporations. Question is? Who gets bailed out? Not me but Jamie Diamond? You bet ya!

Greenmountain
Greenmountain

So after he finishes bashing fake news, he has to do something. Tax cut, stimulus- maybe we can get some roads repaired out of this deal, subsidies to the oil companies - (most likely). And the winner is....

WildBull
WildBull

There are two ways to handle this thing. Either, be very very aggressive NOW and stop it, or let it run its course. Intermediate measures only prolong the agony and economic damage.

I haven't voted for a democrat in 30 years, but Biden and a Republican Congress looks pretty attractive.

Ted R
Ted R

This is nothing. Just wait until hedge fund investors begin to panic and want their money back. Today's drop in the stock market will be peanuts compared to the decline that is coming. And you heard it from me first.

bradw2k
bradw2k

A lot of the smart money probably is out of equities now, and hoping for an extended crash so they can buy back in at half-price. But currently employed politicians will try to convince voters that this really isn't happening, and will sacrifice anyone they can to get prices back up. I expect Trump to declare some crazy emergency measure if equities stay down or downer.

abend237-04
abend237-04

Those demanding that mommy Fed make it stop may be in for a surprise. Powell argued openly in Fed meeting minutes during Bernanke's Zirp infinitum rampage that there would be hell to pay" It'll never be enough for Wall St." There's a whole generation of strutting, swaggering Wall. St. sell side folks now putting on dry pants and screeching indignantly for the Fed to save them...again.

I think Powell will keep cash in the ATMs and let it burn down to reasonable.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The circuit breakers keep triggering but when they open again they retrigger. This could go on for days depending on how many sell orders are backlogged.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I will go out on a limb and say we get a recession in 2020.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The mafia must really be mad these days at their fearless leader.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Trump is correct. The risk of contracting Coronavirus is low....today. You probably won't get it today. You probably won't get it this week. You probably won't get it this month. In fact, you probably have only a 0.1% chance of getting it in March.

However....your odds of getting it in April are significantly higher, and the odds that you will have it by the end of May are very high. The growth rate it is showing in warm climates leads to the conclusion that it will not take the summer off. Exponential growth leads to the conclusion that by April, and certainly by May, there will be enough cases that it will be hard NOT to get it.

As we can see, the market isn't just looking at today. It is looking out a month or two. As we saw as recently as Feb. 20th, the market doesn't look too far in the future, but when it became apparent that it wasn't going to be contained, the market started down. The fact that we, here, saw it earlier gave us time to get out of the market, and to go short, if we chose to.

Trump doesn't do himself any favors, though. Every time he talks and blames it on fake news, he reinforces the notion that his government doesn't view this as a serious problem, and that scares the hell out of the market.

millynical
millynical

Mish - interested to hear your opinion o n how this will impact housing prices, and on what timeline? I've probably heard coworkers mention "refinance" 20 times... and i can't help but think, this is probably the perfect time to find a buyer and start renting.

QTPie
QTPie

Someone should tell the guy that the US is now a net exporter of oil. Super low oil prices are NOT good. Oh, and there’s the problem of the $200 billion in oil company debt out there that’s probably going to go under pretty quickly.

Andy999
Andy999

Why wouldn't Trump impose tariffs on imported oil to protect domestic producers and stabilize the credit market?

truthseeker
truthseeker

Mish I certainly do understand all the criticism of the President who keeps on making all these goofy statements. Nevertheless, please take a look at this article in today’s WSJ-Where Do The Candidates Stand on This Radical Immigration Plan? This is 1 reason I still intend to vote for him come November.


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