There is No Recovery in the Aerospace Industry
“COVID-19 Adaptation Plan”
CEO Guillaume Faury announced a “COVID-19 adaptation plan” including a cut of 15,000 positions.
“Airbus is facing the gravest crisis this industry has ever experienced. Our business in the civil airliner business has reduced with 40%, and we expect this to remain the level for the next two years. Then, in 2022 we think there will be an uptake in single-aisle business. Widebody deliveries will take longer to recover, perhaps until 2025. Today’s announcement is our longer-term adaptation to the lower demand. There is no further adaptation of our announced production rates because of this. Our initial estimate from April was pretty good. It took single-aisle from rate 60 to 40, A350 from 9.5 to six, and A330 from 3.5 to two. We expect this to be the level for the coming months. Airbus is always adjusting the rates to the actual situation, so there will be smaller adjustments going forward, but these are the levels we work from.”
Era of Jumbo Jets is Over
Boeing Co. hasn’t told employees, but the company is pulling the plug on its hulking 747 jumbo jet, ending a half-century run for the twin-aisle pioneer.
The last 747-8 will roll out of a Seattle-area factory in about two years, a decision that hasn’t been reported but can be teased out from subtle wording changes in financial statements, people familiar with the matter said.
“At a build rate of half an airplane per month, the 747-8 program has more than two years of production ahead of it in order to fulfill our current customer commitments. We will continue to make the right decisions to keep the production line healthy and meet customer needs,” Boeing said for this story.
Airbus is already preparing to build the last A380 jumbo, after the final convoy of fuselage segments rumbled to its Toulouse, France, plant last month.
Air France, Lufthansa, and Qatar Airways are among carriers weighing whether to ground their A380s permanently or are preparing to do so. Airbus has just nine of the planes still be delivered.
The Recovery Will Have Many Shapes, Not One
Boeing is an excellent example of why The Recovery Will Have Many Shapes, Not One.
Also see Unemployment is Much Worse Than it Looks.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell promotes the idea that a Quickening Takes Many Years.
Regarding Boeing, my industry contact commented "Boeing only has the 737 MAX in the single aisle category . If wide bodies take till 2025 to recover, their 787 and 777 X planes are in trouble."