The Weather Does Not Make Viruses Go Away

Mish

Weather generally does not make viruses go away. What should we be hoping for this time?

Why We Shouldn’t Hope COVID-19 Is Seasonal Like The Flu

There's an excellent video discussion on 538 entitled Why We Shouldn’t Hope COVID-19 Is Seasonal Like The Flu that I recommend everyone play.

Here's a few lines that stood out for me.

"It's not an individual risk problem as it is a collective risk problem. The problem is not whether you will recover. The problem is whether you spread it to somebody who doesn't."

The video explains the virus does not go away in warm weather. Rather, it lessens but intensifies in the opposite hemisphere, then comes back. There are other issues related to humidity that scientists do not quite understand. For example, near the equator viruses can persist at the same strength near round. It is the temperate zones that are cyclical.

Please click on the above link and play the video.

Lockdown in Spain

What About France?

US vs Europe

Massachusetts Coronavirus Cluster

Massachusetts coronavirus cluster of at least 82 cases started by people not yet showing symptoms.

Social Distancing

Denmark Closes Border

Meanwhile ... in LA

Meanwhile ... in the US

Expect Hospital Beds in the US to Fill

Meanwhile ... In the Dallas Ft Worth Airport

Screening is pure useless bullsheet.

Meanwhile ... At Chicago O'hare Airport

Meanwhile ... in Ft Lauderdale

Meanwhile ... at the "Mar-a-Lago Petri dish”

But Hey

But hey, please keep your social distancing. Especially at crowded airports where it is impossible.

Amazingly Wild Ride: The Week in Review

In case you missed it please see Amazingly Wild Ride: The Week in Review

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (106)
No. 1-35
shamrock
shamrock

There is more sunlight in summer. Sunlight and, more generally, ultra-violet light will help kill viruses on surfaces. So yes, summer should help slow the spread.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

If you are into statistics, Chris Matensen explains: 2009 H1N1 flu never went away in the summer, there was a dip, and then a rise in the fall.
With my limited knowledge of biology, the same can be expected of Corona virus. To be precise: a dip in the exponential growth of cases.
youtu.be/Rb94GXQVEKQ?t=352

Addendum:
The following link is an interview with a Russian specialist, and it's the most technical I've read aside from scientific papers. The interviewer tries to steer the answers to a common language.
The gist:

  • it's scary as hell.
  • it will attenuate in April/May
  • the recovered will have aftereffects
  • how to protect yourself
George Phillies
George Phillies

George Phillies I am a retired university professor. I have friends who do biochemistry. The RNA sequence of the virus has been known for months. The exact procedure for generating the nucleotide sequences, etc., for the RNA test for the virus is well known and uses equipment and skills available in hundreds of laboratories across the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. These tests could use the CDC sense and antisense codons and be the same as the CDC test. Friends observe that they could each turn out hundreds or more tests a week, if it were not for Federal interference. Someone should try fixing this.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

So, extra screening in airports that is not able to detect many cases of coronavirus slows the security lines for everyone and forces large crowds of people to spend more time in enclosed areas of the airport? Brilliant. What happened to social distancing?

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

This site seem to have picked up a few bugs.

  1. I couldn't post a full YouTube URL; it didn't like the http part, I think.
  2. The main comment section, shows a box, New Comment. When replying to a reply in the secondary thread, it also shows, but disappears. However, when the number of replies was high (>15), it covers the second level reply box.
Greggg
Greggg

Weather does not make the viruses go away, but the viruses sure made the food store shelves empty.

daveyp
daveyp

Could not agree more Mish. I'm a physician in New Zealand which thankfully gives us some time given our isolation. Our Prime Minister is appearing to grasp the seriousness of the situation and partially at least moving in the right direction.

But case numbers in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, Argentina, Chile and South Africa are on the rise simultaneously. The notion that hotter temperatures will save the day is just demonstrably wrong.

Heaven help us all. This will be the worst thing in multiple generations....

Mish
Mish

Editor

Play the video

The virus does not go away - it lessens but intensifies in the opposite hemisphere.

The title is accurate - It does not go away.

Mish
Mish

Editor

I added this note

Note: The video explains the virus does not go away in warm weather. It lessens but intensifies in the opposite hemisphere, then comes back. There are other issues related to humidity that scientists do not quite understand. For example, near the equator viruses can persist at the same strength near round. It is the temperate zones that are cyclical.

crazyworld
crazyworld

GRANDPA AND GRANDMA ON THE DEATH ROW.

When China try to restart economic activities, the new cases rate trends up. That will improve when immunized people will be a substantial part of the population. There are far more immunized (having build antibodies) people than the number of recovered people as a lot of asymptomatic (or low symptoms people) people got the virus and were not treated or counted.
However they are now able to close emergency hospitals in Wuhan and even send medical teams and medical supplies and devices to Italy and Iran.

BUT when I see how the containment measures are lightly applied in our countries be it US or Europe
There are too few testing so a lot of asymptomatic virus spreaders are encountered everywhere.
I see yet no obligation (moral or law inforced) of masks and gloves use outdoor as it is the case in ASIA everywhere
Public transport are petri dishes for the virus and what the pictures above (airports waiting files amongst other) show is mind bogling.
People tested positive but not too sick are quarantined IN THEIR FAMILY HOME (crazy)
I think we will, as usual, learn the hard way what the experimented Chinese showed us to do

Debbie C.
Debbie C.

Lived by dog park. Rented out vet book @ local library, searched whole town. No vet book, until new library built, on how to get rid of poop & urine. I lived next door. Smell came thru my windows. Compared medicine in humans to animals.( They have organs too! ) Tried all kinds of entrepreneur ideas. Nothing. Found out, the temperature of heat to rid, the waste, well, we might as well be that inferno on Saturn. Yup, extreme heat. Can't even match it, by burning the park down. Same goes for frozen places like Antarctica. I think disease's are being released as the ice melts.

crazyworld
crazyworld

As far as warmer weather is concerned and the possibility of a damping of the infection what I have found so far is that:

  1. The virus (SARS) dont live long on a support or outside if the humidity is very low (dry weather) or way too high but in the middle it can survive up to 28 days.
  2. Some research to be confirmed indicate that D vitamin help against the fight against coronavirus. Sun should help the part of the population deficient in vit. D.
  3. Cold weather is an infection helper as it weakens the blood flow and the immune system in cooled areas (throat, nose…) Dripping nose when weather is cold, is a natural protection the children mostly have (and adults in good health) to protect them from catching a cold.
    (coronavirus)
    Using nose sprays (with natural anti-virus plant extracts) and throat anti-viral spray systematically when exposed to crowd could help avoid getting the virus in the first place where it strike.
bradw2k
bradw2k

Why would it be better if it's not seasonal? I've read the opposite. But it's hard to know who to believe.

Debbie C.
Debbie C.

Just analyzing diseases, & article was about, if, temperature would get gone; the COVID-19, if weather warmer/hotter. If it won't get rid of poo, then, odds are against the virus! 😵😡🤬

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

Spanish Flu was relatively mild in US Spring 1918, people began to say things like Trump said as in 'hey maybe it will just disappear."

Then the second wave in Fall 1918 killed 650K in US and millions around the world.

Last night on Coast to Coast Ian interviewed John Berry, author of

TH_Lima
TH_Lima

Japanese, understandably, want Olympics to continue. Their decision to conduct limited testing (instead of a thorough job that Japanese are known for), ironically, makes it likely that cases will explode at precisely the wrong time. Like, before final decision, or in the thick of the games itself.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

Related topic. How difficult could it be to produce an immunization vaccine, considering the corona virus is structurally similar to the flu virus? Either growing it in eggs, or engineered bacteria.

St. Funogas
St. Funogas

There is a definite cold and flu season so I fully expect this CoV to slow down down during the summer months, then come back in full force in September.

Here is a chart showing which months different types of viruses are active most active:

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Several have commented the virus does not do well in humid environments, and drippy noses help reduce chances the virus attaches

This has me thinking about the volumes of people who take allergy medicines. Maybe those medicines are making people more vulnerable to viruses, so they should stop taking allergy medicine. The medicine in most cases is not for a life-threatening condition.

ohno
ohno

Just look at those pics. And the article that's surprised people without symptoms are spreading it date 3-14! There is NO way this will be contained. All responses are reactionary the virus moves to fast. All this social distancing crap when people at airports are crawling each other like ants the odds of none of them having it are remote and this is all the proof I need to know we are fast approaching hell on earth. Things are going to be radically different before long many of us wont be here to see it. Most people I know still claim this is a nothingburger and some of them are highly educated. I even have a friend that was in China during SARS and he says this is nothing. I'm thinking everyone is brain dead.

Quatloo
Quatloo

It is really hard to isolate for weather. With colder weather, people tend to stay indoors where they are closer to one another, and with warmer weather they tend to go outside where social spacing is greater. Is it the weather that affects the virus, or is it the resultant activity?

WildBull
WildBull

My doc is a specialist in infectious disease and consultant to the CDC. We got into a discussion about the flu. He says they simply don't know why the flu is seasonal.

Zardoz
Zardoz

.... and fox is promoting the power of prayer.

Maybe I should double down with healing crystals and homeopathic remedies from the MLM I just joined that’s gonna make me rich because god loves a salesman.

The stupid never stops.

rum_runner
rum_runner

Social distancing = halted economy. So long as the virus maintains a > 1 transmission rate - then what? And even if a country does manage to eliminate cases does it then reopen international travel?

Carl_R
Carl_R

There are lots of plausible reasons why flu slows in the summer. More humidity, higher temperatures, more UV light, less time indoors, etc, but for every virus that seems to follow one of these, there are others that don't. I have started tracking the spread rate regionally, and I see no reason to think it is going to slow, and that, unfortunately, means we will hit the wall in late April.

Here are the average daily growth rate for number of cases by region for the last 3 days:

Caribbean 143 cases, growing 46.4% a day
S. America 349, 41.4%
Former USSR 202, 36.5%
Central/South Africa 138, 35.5%
N. America 3338, 30.9%
C. America 143, 30.6%
Pacific Islands/Aus/NZ 621, 30.4%
N. Africa 205, 25.7%
Europe 50574, 25.1%
S. Asia 1023, 12.7%
Middle East 15266, 12.1%
Asia except China 9190, 1.8%
China 80850, 0.0%
Death Princess 696, 0.0%

The cases in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere got off to a slower start, and I would attribute that to the fact that there is a lot less travel to/from there. Now that they have a foothold, though, their cases are growing fast. In fact, they are growing fast in virtually every part of the globe. The ONLY area where cases are growing slower than the rest of the world without tight controls seems to be the Middle East. Thus, maybe the virus doesn't like hot dry climates, but other than that, it spreads effectively in any other climate.

The only places where cases are not growing is places that have locked down or instituted other controls. There is nothing here that indicates that weather is a factor. China locked down, and stopped it. S. Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan have stopped it, too. Iran and Italy let it get bad, but have instituted controls, too.

Here are the last three days for countries who have locked down or have other effective controls:
Italy +19.1% per day, down from 25% before the lockdown
Iran 12.1% per day (but, how accurate is their data?)
Japan 7.9% per day
Singapore 5.9% per day
Hong Kong 4.0% per day
Taiwan 3.3% per day
S. Korea 1.2% per day
China 0.0% per day

Take these countries out, and the entire rest of the world is growing at 28.8% per day. That means doubling every 3 days, and going up by a factor of ten times about every 9 days. Expect shutdowns and tight controls in more places, soon.

tokidoki
tokidoki

This screening BS started a LONG TIME AGO. I came in through SFO Feb 2nd, and it was the same story. Also another of our delusion has been shattered: "MORE THAN 50% OF THE 300 #COVIDー19 CASES IN CRITICAL CONDITION IN FRANCE ARE UNDER 60,"

abend237-04
abend237-04

Humanity's "leaders" blew the chance to prepare for this most recent virus army. Now, we're all reduced, again, to hunkering down in our fox holes and waiting anxiously for it to pass. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

stocks321
stocks321

Epidemics follow Farr's Law, not exponential growth, but panic is fun.
This is an immune system event, not a virus event. Strong immune systems are not at risk & immune systems strengthen with sunlight.

Realist
Realist

I have no idea if/when a vaccine or a treatment will be developed, but I am certain that there are many research scientists working hard on this.

How ironic that this occurs at a time when there is such a large movement of people who are anti-vaccine, anti-science, and pro-conspiracy.

Wmjack50
Wmjack50

Look at the bright side---this may help make social security solvent for longer
as long as you aren't one of the victims Dust to Dust

AussiePete
AussiePete

Vitamin D supplements have been shown to be better than the flu vaccine in preventing flu - for those most deficient in Vitamin D, a supplement reduced risk of respiratory tract infection (including corona viruses(?)) by 50%. An estimated 33% of Americans are vitamin D deficient, and most others are "sub-optimal"


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