The Next Jobs Report Will Be Bloody
Ohio Unemployment Rate Skyrockets
A new Marist poll this week for NPR/PBS News found 18% of US adults responding they'd already either been laid off or had significant reduction of hours due to the ripple effect of the pandemic.
For an indicator of just how high national unemployment may skyrocket, look no further than Ohio, which on Sunday night declared a 'health emergency' and shut down all bars and restaurants state-wide. Journalist Liz Skalka for The Toledo Blade reports that Ohio Senator Rob Portman (R) received "new data on Ohio's unemployment claims today: 45,000 claims this week compared to 6,500 last week."
The state-wide ordered shutdown of dining and drink establishments by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Sunday night impacted about 10% of the state's workforce, some 500,000 people
Car Production Curbed
After a round of bickering over details, Detroit Automakers and UAW Agree to Curb Production.
The Detroit Three automakers and United Auto Workers agreed on Tuesday to curtail production at U.S. factories and limit the number of workers on the job at one time to prevent the spread of the coronavirus among roughly 150,000 factory employees. The union and the automakers agreed to “rotating partial shutdown of facilities, extensive deep cleaning of facility and between shifts, extended periods between shifts, and extensive plans to avoid member contact,” the union said in a statement.
The agreement came hours after UAW President Rory Gamble went public with his dissatisfaction with how General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV had responded to his proposal on Sunday that the companies stop production in the face of the coronavirus threat.
Long Recovery for Airlines
U.S. airlines are seeking to quickly reduce their workforces through early retirement packages or unpaid leave of up to 12 months with medical benefits in an effort to cut costs as the rapid spread of the coronavirus keeps people from flying.
“Based on the decline in air travel, we need to quickly line up our staffing levels with the reduced flying schedule,” American said in a message to flight attendants seen by Reuters. The carrier said “it’s likely to take a long time for the airline industry to bounce back.”
American has more than 86,000 unionized mainline employees, including about 25,300 flight attendants and 13,800 pilots.
Under a deal offered to workers on Tuesday, flight attendants, mechanics and gate agents can opt for a period of six, nine or 12 months of unpaid leave while keeping medical benefits and travel privileges. They can also take early retirement with two years of medical benefits, but no pay.
More than 5,000 Delta flight attendants have taken a voluntary unpaid leave option starting in April after the company extended a deadline for requests, according to two Delta employees, who declined to be named because they are not authorized to speak to the media.
Delta has extended unpaid leave options through July, according to a memo seen by Reuters. It is also paying flight attendants’ medical premiums while on leave, but the cost will be deducted from their paychecks when they return to work, the employees said.
The take-up for April represents around 1/5 of Delta’s 25,000 flight attendants, but still means the company would have more employees than it needs to serve a drastically reduced April flying schedule.
Airlines for America - the trade group representing American, Delta, United, Southwest Airlines Co and others - is seeking a federal aid package, including $25 billion in grants and $25 billion in loans, they say is needed to survive an unprecedented downturn in demand.
States With Imposed Restaurant Shutdowns
The above table from Eater.Com.
That's 15 states and growing including most of the largest states in the nation.
Chart from Calculated Risk.
- The US was off 84% YoY as of yesterday.
- As of yesterday, San Francisco was off 100% YoY, Boston was off 100% YoY, and Seattle was off 100%.
- As of March 17th, 13 states and D.C. were off 100%, Soon it will be all states.
Mall of America Closes
Mall of America to Macy’s and Nordstrom saying they are shutting down for at least two weeks.
Best Buy said Tuesday it will reduce store hours to 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. And starting Monday, it will only allow 10 to 15 customers in stores at a time for at least two weeks, while also serving customers through curbside pickup. It also will have fewer employees staffing the store.
“Macy’s is a biggie — it’s an anchor in many malls,” said Saunders, adding that its closing will put pressure on other stores and shopping malls to close. “No one is going to want to go to a mall if only half of the stores are open.”
Some retailers who were already struggling might not be able to survive the temporary closures, analysts said.
Colorado Has 1600% Jump in Unemployment Claims
Unprecedented Wave of Claims
Unemployment servers also crashed in Ohio and New York.
Factor in casinos, airlines, the UAW, Boeing, countless retail stores etc., and the unemployment rate may easily top 15% in the next report.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock