The Fed is Stuck On Interest Rates, Unable to Do Anything

Mish

As universally expected, the Fed left interest rate policy unchanged.

Stuck in Glue 

The Fed is stuck in glue. It did not change interest rates. Nor did it change much of its announcement as the WSJ Fed Statement Tracker shows.  

No Dissents 

Fed Statement Tracker Changes Nov 5 2020 dissents

Sarcastic News of the Day

Effective Lower Bound

For discussion of the Effective Lower Bound (the point at which lowering rates further is counterproductive), please see:

  1. June 4, 2019: Powell Ready to Cut Rates to "Effective Lower Bound" via "Conventional" Policy
  2. September 25 2019: In Search of the Effective Lower Bound

Two Inflationary Tail Risks For US Investors

The Fed is stuck and will not lower rates below zero nor can it raise them without killing housing.

For discussion please see Two Inflationary Tail Risks For US Investors

Meanwhile, the bubbles keep getting bigger increasing the odds of a deflationary collapse.

Mish

Comments (54)
No. 1-28
numike
numike

Trump and aides have had discussions about mounting a comeback run in 2024 should he lose reelection to Biden, an adviser tells me. No word whether he would do it. But the subject has come up https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1324427747540828162

Sechel
Sechel

I think the Fed would take their foot off the pedal if they thought a stimulus and infrastrucure package would get done but with the senate staying republican i don't see it

Mish
Mish

Editor

if editing was there and is now gone - then due to being forced to turn off posting again, the two are related.

Another attack on my website

Sports betting and sports promotion sites sending hundreds or even thousands of links. Do not know the count. They are autodeleted.

This has been going on for several days causing frustration for everyone.

In response, spam filter also affecting legitimate comments. I undelete them when I see them.

Do not submit comments twice if they disappear. It's extra work on me.

Apologies offered.

Mish

Doug78
Doug78

We are in an MMT world now and I don't think either party is going to fight it for the moment or if indeed should they considering the damage done by Covid-19. Putting it back into the bottle is going to be the major theme in about five years.

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Keep on Printing J-Powell, digitally of course because of climate change.

Dr. Manhattan23
Dr. Manhattan23

Loved the piece Mish. I agree 100%. No chance the Fed increases rates. If they raise rates they also shoot themselves in the foot in terms of debt service payments. I dont think there is any chance they raise them for a long time

Tengen
Tengen

Didn't the Fed already say that rates would remain unchanged until the end of 2023 at the earliest? I expect that date to be pushed back since they previously stayed on zero for eight years.

To say they're stuck is an understatement. The only way their prediction is broken is if we go negative.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Print, Jay, Print......Buy everything.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The Feds Seized $1 Billion in Stolen Silk Road Bitcoins
A hacker identified only as Individual X had been sitting on a cryptocurrency gold mine for seven years before the IRS came knocking.

Mish
Mish

Editor

“Democratic-leaning Chatham County (home to Savannah) in GA has finished counting the roughly 17K votes that was outstanding earlier today, which made up for a big chunk of the state's outstanding ballots. Trump lead in GA is now at under 10,000 votes.”

My understanding, an hopefully so is these were “counted” but “not reported”

But that is from a random Tweet of unknown accuracy.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

So close.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Nevada

Mish
Mish

Editor

Georgia

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Champagne is ready......

Mish
Mish

Editor

Nate Cohn Projection - Excellent News if True

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

All roads lead to Rome, circa 275 AD right about now.

njbr
njbr

Alec
@AlecMcQuade
·
17m
Chatham Co. just reported nearly all of its 17K. Biden received 11,148. Trump 5,587. That shrinks Trump lead in Georgia to 3,635. #Elections2020 #11Alive

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

The Fed is now almost totally irrelevant. The only "tool" they have left is their printing press. And they will continue to use it.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Nate Cohn on Georgia
Nate Cohn NYT: Trump's lead in Georgia now under 4000 votes after Chatham absentees report.
Might still be about 20000 votes left throughout the state, based on the earlier tallies from the secretary of state. Hard to think Biden wouldn't find another 3700 votes

Mish
Mish

Editor

Farewell on Deck

Mish
Mish

Editor

Arizona Math

njbr
njbr

GEORGIA SEC OF ST - Said that 16105 votes left to be counted.

GA: 34 new ballots. 82% Biden. Net 22. Trump lead 1,775.

This means Biden needs 55% of remaining votes to hit lead.

He will want 65% to feel comfortable covering off any military or other provisional votes still to be counted.

He’s tracking at over 70% today. #Georgia

njbr
njbr

PA: Biden takes 63% of 5,487 batch of unknown origin. Trump lead falls further to 22,571.

ajc1970
ajc1970

So... once Trump loses the vote counts, do people think he concedes?

If not, he has lots of (awful for the country) Constitutional options, with the first one being to make an appeal to the state legislatures in WI, PA, GA and AZ, which are entirely GOP-controlled.

Seems like they can choose the electors they want, regardless of the vote (correct me if I'm wrong).

The only remedy is for Congress to discard that state's votes, but then neither candidate has a majority and the vote goes to the House delegations for a vote (and those are marginally GOP-controlled).

I think we all know Trump would try this if he thought he could pull it off.

Anybody think any of those 4 state legislatures would go along? And if so, what about the House GOP members afterward?

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Mish
Mish

Editor

"If not, he has lots of (awful for the country) Constitutional options, with the first one being to make an appeal to the state legislatures in WI, PA, GA and AZ, which are entirely GOP-controlled."

Understand the theory and it was also on Fox News.
Don't believe so

Nickelodeon
Nickelodeon

These are the kind of write-ups I've been missing since the focus was moved to the election....hopefully the trend continues.

Expat
Expat

Country can't afford higher rates. It would kill the economy, which is pretty sad when you consider what this is doing to savings. The "greatest economy in the world" can't afford to borrow at 5%! What a joke.
As for the Trumpturds here with their sad conspiracy theories, you can fuck off. If you don't like democracy and voting, there is a long list of shit hole countries you can go to and be racist, ignorant and xenophobic while living under a lovely dictatorship.


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