The Experts Don't Know Where People Are Getting Infected

Mish

Experts are puzzled. They shouldn't be.

The Big Unknown

Nearly a year into to the pandemic, the Big Unknown Is Where People Are Getting Infected.

  • In Germany, authorities say they don’t know where 75% of people who currently test positive for the coronavirus got it. 
  • In Austria, the figure stands at 77%.
  • In Spain, the health ministry said that it was able to identify the origin of only 7% of infections registered in the last week of October. 
  • In France and Italy, only some 20% of new cases have been linked to people who previously tested positive.
  • In the US, we know even less.

Failure of Contact Tracing

Falko Liecke, city councilor for health and youth in Berlin’s popular Neukölln district, said his contact tracers often run into the problem that people who test positive “can’t remember or don’t want to remember” where they were exactly, and with whom, in the days before showing symptoms. A current time lag of up to a week in getting test results is making matters worse, he said.

Smartphone apps that warn you if you’ve been in close contact with someone who later tests positive are supposed to help address this problem, but they haven’t been widely adopted enough to be useful, experts say.

In France, authorities only began requiring restaurants to gather this information in early October, more than four months after the country emerged from its first lockdown. Even so, this information is rarely being used. In restaurant-dense Paris, local health authorities say they haven’t conducted a single investigation using customer data.

Key Points

  • The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the U.S. reached 69,455, a record.
  • The U.S. added more than 100,000 cases a day for the past 12 days. 
  • The daily death toll in the U.S. has averaged over 1,000 for the past seven days. 
  • The cumulative death toll is 251,000.
  • Covid-19 deaths among vulnerable nursing-home residents are surging again, with the virus increasingly spreading to rural facilities. 

Hot Spots

How is is Spreading?

  1. People don't wear masks.
  2. They catch it but are asymmetric spreaders.
  3. They catch it and go to work anyway.
  4. They spread it to their family.
  5. Their kids spread it.

Despite over 250,000 deaths, a huge percentage of the population believes it it their right to go anywhere they want without a mask. 

And they still believe Covid is some sort of scam.

Anywhere and Everywhere 

The experts might be struggling but add it all up and the obvious answer to how it is spreading is Anywhere and Everywhere including church, bars, restaurants, schools, and stores.

Given eight months of Trump dissing masks and proclaiming Covid would soon go away, anywhere and everywhere was the expected result.

250,000 deaths is not a scam. It's a tragedy.

Related Posts 

  1. Ohio Gov. Restricts Weddings, Threatens to Close Businesses
  2. 24 States Reach Their Highest Level of Covid Hospitalizations
  3. Milan Crematory Can't Keep Up With the Deaths
  4. El Paso Shut Down as 10 Mobile Morgues Fill Up

Also note 83% of Passengers Will Not Return to Old Travel Habits

Mish

Comments (110)
No. 1-35
ajc1970
ajc1970

After 10+ months, if we can't see the source, we're looking in the wrong place.

Let's go back to assuming fecal-oral and washing our d*n hands after we potty.
Would explain most infected folks not spreading it, but the existence of "super-spreaders."

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Weather gets bad. People are inside, out of the open air, in to recycled, static air.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Well, this whole C19 thing has been a pretty convincing demonstration of how those who like their privacy need not worry for now.

Where is the data? Where is the information?

Contact tracing? My phone and Google know where I am at 5 minute intervals or better.

Mask use: With all the surveillance cameras out there it shouldn't be that hard to get a line on how much mask wearing there really is in a place.

Where are people? Phones could probably give a pretty good idea of how much the phone is indoors, and out, and in the car, and ... And, at least Google and Apple have tried to publish such info.

Call_me_Al
Call_me_Al

Relying on a test that isn't diagnostic is a significant part of the problem. Designating a positive PCR test result as synonymous with the terms case or infected person is frequently going to lead to dead ends when trying to trace the source, especially when a person who never displays any symptom consistent with infection. False results (positive or negative) muddy the picture to an unknown degree.

The conventional wisdom that 40%+ asymptomatic persons who have a positive PCR test are functional Typhoid Marys has always been dubious, yet it's still largely accepted as fact.

Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish

Remember the brain finds patterns in noise. @Mish called what we're seeing "waves". Now, consider ocean waves. Anyone with a film camera: How much time have you spent watching waves and trying to predict when the big wave crashes over the rock?

Too bad that typed list of Per 100,000/Deaths/Day is clipped on the top. As we all expect and know, Switzerland, at number 9, easily beats out Cook County at 10. Gotta be masks. ... No, wait. Must be race. ... No, no, wait. Must be wealth. ... No, no, no, wait. Must be health care system. ... No, really, wait.

Jojo
Jojo

Lockdowns: Immoral, Illegal, and Ineffective
By Ira Katz
November 16, 2020

To lockdown a nation to prevent the spread of an infectious disease is a medical intervention never tried in the history of the world before 2020 and then almost immediately employed throughout most of the world. This observation alone is worth in depth consideration. Here I will make the case that, considered as a medical intervention, lockdowns are immoral, illegal and ineffective.
....

Jojo
Jojo

AMAZING that WaPo is just now posing this question that was raised 8 months ago and got many banned on MSM for it! What goes around, comes around?

Let's get Biden on the job!

The coronavirus’s origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.
Opinion by Editorial Board
November 14, 2020 at 7:00 AM EST

AFTER SO much death and illness, a mystery from the first days of the novel coronavirus has yet to be solved. We still don’t understand its origins or how it became a global killer. The answers lie in China, and quite possibly beyond. The world needs a credible, impartial investigation to better prepare for future pandemics.

Doug78
Doug78

Right on time. Trump is out, Biden in so the narrative has to change on Covid-19 to being uncontrollable by it's nature rather than being caused by Trump's policies. That means Biden's experts know they can't do better than Trump so they have to explain away their future ineffectiveness and failures. I really wonder if they believe people won't notice or maybe they just don't care.

Carl_R
Carl_R

About half the population of Nebraska has a mask mandate. The data would be about 850 for the area with a mask mandate (about the same as Rhode Island) and about 1250 for the area with no mask mandate (about the same as Utah).

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Putting a mask over your mouth but not nose is useless. I'd say 50% of mask wearers do this. Also the virus can be passed through airborne water droplets up to 10 feet.

nzyank
nzyank

I am no longer concerned about the virus. While a tragedy, it is a minor issue compared with the threat to our democracy and to the global order from our disfunctional electoral system and from our extreme political polarization. To have a system where Biden has now won over 5.5 million more votes than Trump, but in which Trump came quite close to winning is ludicrous. It makes the election about gaming the system, instead of about the will of a majority of the people, and will be a ongoing destabilzing force. And the political polarization will continue for the foreseeable future as well... America has turned into an ugly, self centered country. I do not envy the task that Biden and his new administration are taking on, and they will need and deserve all the help and support they can get. If they fail, it is because we as Americans have failed.

ohno
ohno

I can tell you one place spreading it are employers like mine who don't practice social distancing. We have meetings about it then are forced to wear masks and then literally crawl all over each other for the c rest of the night. Each of us were given a new trainee this past week you literally have to be by there side and will make body contact on occasionally from a fast paced mfg environment. There are zero precautions. Suggestions? I just filed a formal complaint with osha but how long will that take? If you'd like to contact amarr entrematic in Lawrence ks and express your appreciation of spreading the virus that would be cool. They will deny it all and have already been shutdown a few times for infections.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

Couple things:

  1. When a bee hive is attacked, by super wasps, or a bear, all of the bees join in attacking the invader. If the bees thought their original "assigned" duties were more important than the invader and didn't fight the hive wouldn't survive. But they have survived for 100 million years by cooperating; the ones that didn't are not around anymore.

  2. I don't see much here about the peakprosperity.com mantra for months that HCQ, Ivermectin, Vit D, NAC, Quercetin (etc.) use would go a long way toward eliminating the COVID threat. Crowd behavior and social policies wouldn't matter as much if everyone were more resistant to the virus.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

the CNN and other biased media, pre election narrative told us it was ALL Trump's fault....2 weeks post election it turns out even scientists don t know where it comes from...but Trump's a goner and THAT's what it was all about from the start...

Maxx2000
Maxx2000

Mish, thanks for another great article. I would humbly suggest that you consider changing the title to "Experts continue to PRETEND they don't know where people are getting infected". Covid is a respiratory virus. Plain and simple. We have known how those spread since the middle ages. Because of the agendas served by deceit and obfuscation (gov't..pharma...etc) some less intelligent people still think incorrectly that wearing a poor quality mask from China or wiping their groceries with Clorox wipes will protect their health. Sad.

MJC363
MJC363

Its the Great Reset.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

I note that Lew Rockwell, whoever that is, is referred to as an authoritative source of information about lockdowns.

That's the great thing about the internet. It's a huge intellectual buffet where we can all find support for our own particular biases.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Where I live, we've had mask mandates from day one. Everywhere I go, people wear masks. And yet we're seeing record numbers too. The most logical conclusion is wearing masks and social distancing has little to no effect.

The places without mask mandates have only recently been hit. The most logical reason their numbers are high is because of lack of immunity.

Rusty Nail
Rusty Nail

Experts in my state don't seem so confused. We have good contact tracing in the US northeast, and the population is better educated and more likely to cooperate.

"Coronavirus clusters in Connecticut uncovered by state investigators show virus spreading at restaurants, private homes and places of worship, new data shows

Connecticut infectious disease specialists have investigated 69 coronavirus clusters since August, outbreaks stemming from everything from graduation parties to college hockey teams, but the most clusters have been found among restaurant workers, information obtained by The Courant shows.

The team identified 20 clusters at restaurants and another 14 at other workplaces — nearly half the total. The workplaces included factories, a tobacco farm, retail stores and offices. The highest number of infections per cluster came from religious gatherings — with a median of nine positive cases per cluster.

Family gatherings are also a major source of infection, the data shows. The state identified 12 clusters centered around private homes, with 7.5 infections as the median. In one case, the state identified 17 infections tied to a single residence."

CaliforniaStan
CaliforniaStan

The Experts Don't Know Where People Are Getting Infected. "the obvious answer to how it is spreading is Anywhere and Everywhere " That is an obvious and imprecise answer. Which is why we need experts. To come up with as precise an answer as possible, so that policy can be made based on reality.

1Roseburgman
1Roseburgman

When I first heard about the need to focus on "contact tracing" my immediate thought was, "How in hell is that going to happen"? If people are infected for up to a couple of weeks before realizing (if they ever do) that they have the virus they'd better have an amazing memory to say who they were with. And to divine who those people might have been with, and so on. What a laughable solution, I thought. But maybe there was something I was missing? I could never get past the idea that contact tracing was something conjured up by the same people who want us to believe in Modern Monetary Theory.

Jojo
Jojo

This Monday morning, I was listening to the host person on MSNBC's MTP Daily who was interviewing someone from the Mayo clinic. That person stated that 1700 Mayo workers currently tested positive for Covid-19!

The host then asked 'given that Mayo workers are all well versed in Covid precautions and would all follow recommendations and yet are still catching the virus, doesn't this make regular people question if it they should follow the recommendations?'

The spokesperson hesitated slightly, as if caught by surprise by that question, then rebounded with 'the problem MUST be coming from people's homes!'. She then further "suggested" (lightly that people should consider wearing masks in their homes. [lol]

How about just lock yourself in a coffin for the next 2 months?

Jojo
Jojo

CA Governor Newson just blinked. Repeating the same things that didn't work before. Must be insane?

California pulls 'emergency brake' in bid to stop unprecedented virus surge
By JEREMY B. WHITE and VICTORIA COLLIVER
11/16/2020

OAKLAND — California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered widespread closures of indoor operations by tomorrow as the state faces its fastest surge in cases since the pandemic began, pulling what he called the "emergency brake" on 94 percent of residents.

Newsom said he was compelled to act by a case surge that is “simply without precedent in California’s pandemic history.”

"Bottom line is, we're moving from a marathon to a sprint," Newsom said.

That has led Newsom to accelerate the process, ensuring 41 of California's 58 counties will have to shut churches, indoor dining and gyms until the state deems them safe for operation.

Some counties will drop multiple tiers to land in the most restrictive tier, Newsom said, and their timeline to comply will be compressed from 72 hours to 24 hours.

While the state's approach so far has allowed for variation among counties, Newsom said a spike in cases has prevailed across the state rather than in isolated areas and has hit every age group. "We are seeing community spread broadly," he said.

RonJ
RonJ

"250,000 deaths is not a scam. It's a tragedy."

The political blocking of hydroxychloroquine is a tragedy. How many have died needlessly?

AshH
AshH

Testing and contract tracing works, but only if done early before widespread community spread. I suspect that it's too late for it to make much difference now. I'm anticipating that governors will be forced to lockdown again once the hospitals fill up, until the numbers come down to a manageable level. Hopefully then testing and contact tracing can make a difference.

Here in Idaho, the Governor says that he won't impose a mask mandate, but it's a personal responsibility to wear one. I estimate that somewhere between 10% to 20% of people at the grocery store still refuse to wear a mask no matter what - yet we have a seatbelt law here in ID.

Can someone please explain to me why wearing a mask in public is a personal responsibility, but driving a car without a seatbelt is illegal? You wearing a mask in public helps me not get infected, but you driving a car without a seatbelt only protects you, not me. Where is the logic of this?

Reasonable Guy
Reasonable Guy

Public rest room high pressure toilets spread concentrated aerosols. Fecal -oral transmission. This has been known for many months.

Webej
Webej

So after all this time we're still not protecting the infirm, as though we don't know how or it's too expensive. That's where 90% of the mortality occurs.
We do know that restaurants and bars and schools are not the big spread locations that you would think. Most spread is nosocomial or at home. It would be great if we could stomp on the actually important vectors, the only effective thing to do.
It sure would be great to actually know what the weighting of various shedding and acquisition vectors (droplet, aerosol, fomite, anal/oral) is within established confidence intervals.

guidoamm
guidoamm

This chart is instructive. Click on individual states to see not only where they are but, more interestingly, where they came from.

This speaks to the fact that a virus cannot be contained and that it will eventually reach all nooks and crannies in a given population. The only variable is time.

bradw2k
bradw2k

Everywhere I go, everyone is wearing a mask. But I suspect the effectiveness of masks is overstated, because at this point we only have access to crap masks that don't fit well -- all the air comes in and goes out the sides.

smhayden1
smhayden1

Cases up but death rates down.

It is the same virus but partial immunity exists due to IgA which is not available to test in the community. USA yesterday 162,000 cases 744 deaths associated with Covid. Average age death 80 only 6 percent of deaths have COVID only. Most were very sick from other causes. There are probably ten exposures for every one positive case. One to two million low level exposures to intestines daily and intestinal exposure is producing low level immunity even at very low level exposure. This results in millions more each day developing some low level immunity and reduced severity. Easily in USA 60 to 100 million a month could be getting low level immunity in USA. By Christmas we could see 500,000 positive cases daily with 5 million daily exposures and death rate only 500 per day with only 30 deaths a day related to COVID as sole diagnosis. Likely the second Wave will be over by mid December. Third wave if it happens will have death rate at 1 1000 to 1 3000. By January most people will not be interested in vaccine. The vaccines companies are not idiots that why they are pumping their stock now before its over.

No second wave spike. In USA probably will average only 700 deaths or less through December 31 ..But at this rate there are likely a million or more exposures per day . Pandemic ends by December 31 or January 31. There are 7000 fatalities to all causes on average in USA daily. Only 10 percent of deaths have COVID antigen. At best now only 10 percent of those who die had a recent positive COVID test. Likely only 3 to 5 percent of daily deaths are truly caused by COVID and usually occur in the infirm and elderly.

A Dose of Reality 5
A Dose of Reality 5

Sexual partners were hard for AIDS patients to admit to. Believe me this vector is under reported and there are many promiscuous super spreaders out their. Litterally and figuratively.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Mish people get it, they go to work because if they don't they have no money to buy food for their families! The same happens in Mexico where the working poor, sick or not, have to go to work. Its that or stave to death!


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