The Election is Over, Economically and Politically, What's Next?
- Democrats were projected to win the Senate. They won't. Even if Democrats win two Senate seats in Georgia runoffs (very unlikely), that would only make the score 50-50.
- Democrats were expected to pick up seats in the House. Instead, Republicans picked up 5.
- Republicans gained two new state trifectas in New Hampshire and Montana, after the GOP ran up majorities in the New Hampshire House and Senate. A state trifecta is when a single party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governorship.
- Republicans flipped the Montana governorship.
No Silent Support For Trump
The above 4 points show why Republicans lost the presidential election.
The one word synopsis is "Trump".
If you would have asked me to guess the outcome of the election based on those points, I would have guessed wrong.
Add it all up, and voters were sick enough of Trump to replace him. The silent majority disliked Trump so much they voted him out with split-ticket voting.
Excellent Speech by Biden
"All those of you who voted for President Trump, I understand the disappointment tonight. I've lost a couple time myself. But now, let's give each other a chance."
Best speech Biden even made.
AOC Threatens to Resign
Business Insider reports AOC said she might quit politics, as some centrist Democrats blame progressives for House losses.
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told the New York Times in an interview that she might quit politics, depending on the hostility of her own party towards progressive causes.
- "I don't even know if I want to be in politics," she told The Times. She said the Democratic party has been hostile to progressive causes, like Medicare for All and the Movement for Black Lives.
- The interview happened Saturday, shortly after major news networks called the election for President-elect Joe Biden, and after some Democrats blamed progressive messaging for party losses down-ticket.
I have no doubt the addition of Kamala Harris to Biden's ticket was a huge mistake. I said so at the time.
The Blue Wave fizzled due to progressives and the Red Wave fizzled because of Trump.
If AOC were to resign, I have but two words "Good Riddance".
Progressives are delusional if they believe the election would have been better for them if only Biden were more progressive.
Judging from the results, Trump might have won.
Delusion is rampant on both sides.
Voters wanted gridlock (or at least no progressive nonsense). Gridlock they will get.
Biden will struggle getting much of his agenda passed in Congress.
No Progressive Shift
- No progressive shift on taxes.
- No AOC-fueled green shift except the minimum Biden can do by mandate.
- No Supreme Court packing.
- No progressive Covid giveaway.
- No total bailouts of corrupt states like Illinois.
There will be another Covid package, but it will be bipartisan not an insane giveaway. That's a good thing.
Deficits Out of Sight
In regards to point 1, deficits will balloon out of sight.
Increasing deficits would have happened under Trump as well, but it will be more pronounced under Biden.
It's time for legalized drugs. We don't have them now primarily because of Trump.
If nothing else, Biden can undo some of Trump's policy by mandate. Better yet, we may see direct legislation.
Iran is another area where Biden can make a difference for the better.
It's time for the US to end these economic sanctions.
Realistically they are an act of war by Trump on Iran. Trump's economic blockade, forcing the entire world to go along, was far worse than any naval blockade in history. And naval blockades are an act of war.
Every US ally and even the US military said Iran was honoring the terms of Obama's nuclear accord.
Biden will support more testing and that is a good thing,
Yet, it is very difficult to predict with any certainty the future economic impact of Covid. Will there be a vaccine? That works? Will states opt for more lockdowns?
6 Key Economic Takeaways
- There is nothing more the Fed can do. Stimulus is up to Congress but it will be governed by compromise. See The Fed is Stuck On Interest Rates, Unable to Do Anything
- The progressive agenda is dead for now.
- An end to the Iran economic embargo rates to negatively impact oil prices.
- Deficits will soar.
- Soaring deficits rate to be good for gold and hurt the dollar, albeit not as much as a full progressive state bailout.
- No one can say when the stock market bubble will pop. I long ago gave up trying.