The Covid-19 Baby Bust is Here and It's Likely Permanent

Mish

Nine months after the pandemic began birthrates are falling in numerous countries.

Plunging Birthrates

Please consider the Covid Baby Bust.

“All evidence points to a sharp decline in fertility rates and in the number of births across highly developed countries,” said Tomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital in Vienna. “The longer this period of uncertainty lasts, the more it will have lifelong effects on the fertility rate.”

In the U.S., a survey by the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization, found that one-third of women polled in late April and early May wanted to delay childbearing or have fewer children because of the pandemic.

The Brookings Institution estimated in December that, as a result of the pandemic, 300,000 fewer babies would be born in the U.S. in 2021 compared with last year. 

Birthrate Declines

  • Italy: -21.6%
  • France: -13.5%
  • Japan: -9.3%

Likely Permanent

No rebound followed the global financial crisis. The U.S. birthrate—after rising to its highest level in decades in 2007—plunged after the 2008 crisis and has declined gradually ever since.

Not to worry. The Fed has a plan to make things more expensive for everybody. That will help, right?

Mish

Comments (59)
No. 1-23
davebarnes2
davebarnes2

We, the USA, has a trivial solution.
More visas/green cards for immigrant babies.
Lots of babies.

Dr. Manhattan23
Dr. Manhattan23

Seems deflationary for sure. Not sure how a bunch of clowns at the fed will "solve" this lol

Zardoz
Zardoz

Can't feed a baby when the ultra wealthy have hovered up all the cash.... but you can look at their yachts.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

Wouldn t it be great if this were to happen on a global scale ? But, no worries Mish, Joe's 300$/ child policy is gonna work miracles, if necessary they d break down Trump's wall with their bare hands, but it wont be necessary of course, under woke sleepy Joe....Breeding paradise is open for business!

Doug78
Doug78

The future belongs to the descendants of those who reproduce. The very religious have more children than the others so eventually the population will be dominated by ultra-religious nuts which is exactly who our own ancestors were, religious nuts since the Palaeolithic.

Doug78
Doug78

Another idea is that when a population reaches a certain density and resources needed to raise children become scarce then certain members remove themselves from the breeding population. Studies on rat behavior seem to confirm this.

shamrock
shamrock

It already costs the parents hundreds of thousands of dollars and taxpayers hundreds thousands more to raise a baby to adulthood. Not to mention climate change.

Scooot
Scooot

That’s good. The World Population is too large.

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

Everyone who projects declining world population always has an asterisk with Ex-Africa. Fertility is only falling if you say ex-Africa in the sentence.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Birthrates havent declined in my locale in California. Demand for schools is higher than ever. New middle and high schools are being built and elementary schools are expanding.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

The hordes swarming in across the Southern border are not “illegal aliens” or “ asylum seekers”.
They are “REPLACEMENTS”.

Tengen
Tengen

Have noticed that economic incentive programs in places like Russia and Japan have been abysmal failures so far. One could argue that the incentives aren't strong enough but I think the problem is much deeper than that.

A lot of women either don't want kids anymore, or they want to wait until they're about 40 to start, when it's much tougher to do so. I also personally know a lot of women who had one child and refused to have anymore, often after splitting up with the father.

Stable relationships would help a lot too, but as a divorced guy I have no room to talk here. Women need to want children for populations to rise again, or be faced with the African model where they have no say in marriage or children.

Then again, I'm not convinced that deflationary populations are such a terrible thing. Sure, they don't work with the Fed model of perpetual growth, but that monstrosity fails whether each of us has one child or ten!

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I think population needs to fall...and will fall. When deaths and births start to look like that chart you posted...it doesn’t take that many generations to have far fewer people on the earth. No pandemic or catastrophe is required. The math is interesting.

But it’s not the best thing for a consumer economy that only understands y.o.y. growth to infinity.

The worst part for me is no grandchildren. I had hoped the family line might not end with my children’s generation. But we are a very long generation family anyway, and I only knew one of my grandparents. My wife never knew her grandfather, who was born in 1867.

I haven’t given up hope, and I suppose it could happen even after I’m long gone.

WarpartySerf
WarpartySerf

Jerome "Irving Fisher" Powell - you think he knows it yet ?

BobSmith
BobSmith

Even Mexico is nearing below replacement level fertility. While I agree that extremely expense of housing, education, day care is discouraging fertility it has more to do wtih urbanization, agressive secularism, cultural relativism. The Amish and Hasidic population is exploding.

Sechel
Sechel

Maybe we can blame the six foot rule

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Guatamala is the answer, that is why Biden is opening the door. I had to search long to find the closest country with young females, the first one after scrolling through 30+ african countries was Guatemala.

oee
oee

women are not baby factories. Unless you impose, Gilead (per Margaret Atwood) policies, birth rates are not going to up.
Also, you claim that robots are going to take over anyway so why the worry about birth rates.

CCBW
CCBW

Human life is cheep anyway we are cleaning out both ends. Cuomo and my governor of Michigan Whitmer put covid-19 in with old folks and now lower births Bill Gates must be so proud. after all according to Georgia Guide stones we only need 6.5% of the 7.8 billon or 500 million people I guess the other 7.3 billon can go for soylent green. the great reset will be great don't you think.
soylent green was a movie about 2022 when overpopulation led to food shortages Charlton Heston was the star.

PostCambrian
PostCambrian

As I have said before, if our economy depends on an every growing population then we are doomed. A declining birth rate is fine as long as we aren't moving towards Idiocracy.

HenryBowmanAZ
HenryBowmanAZ

I'll never understand social dynamics. A blackout or snowstorm keeps people home for two days, we get a spike in births. A quarantine keeps them home for six months, we get racial extinction.

Turkey11
Turkey11

Tough to pick up a kid with a cellphone in your hand every hour of the day.


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