Texas Shuts Bars at Noon as Covid Cases Surge

Mish

The rollback of the reopenings escalates as cases surge to pandemic highs.

In Florida, cases surge nearly 80% as the US hits daily high of nearly 40,000 new cases.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has had enough of his reopening plans and has shuttered bars at noon. 

Florida reported 8,933 new cases of coronavirus on Friday, an almost 80% increase from the day before. Florida, Texas, California and Arizona accounted for nearly half of a record-breaking 39,972 confirmed Covid-19 cases reported on Thursday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Amid the rising number of cases, Mr. Abbott on Friday limited restaurants to 50% capacity and required bars to close at noon except for delivery and takeout.

At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars,” Mr. Abbott said. He also said most outdoor gatherings of 100 or more people would need approval from local governments. Texas had been allowing gatherings of more than 500 people, with approval from local authorities.

Abbott's Change in Tune

  • Recall that Abbott would not let local jurisdictions set reopening rules any tougher than set at the state level.
  • Also recall state level rules were widely ignored. 
  • Now he closed bars at noon. 

Delayed Reactions

A few states started reopening on May 1. Texas was in that list. 

It takes time after premature openings and abandoning of social distancing for cases to escalate. 

Premature Celebration, Led by Trump

Things looked good in early June, but it was a premature celebration, led by Trump.

Trump insisted on having rallies in packed stadiums and halted testing in locations in five states including Texas. 

We have yet to see the fallout from those moments of self-adulation. 

For details, please see Trump's Campaign Visit to Arizona Church is Irresponsible at Best

Trump Blames Increased Testing

Not Just Increased Testing

Covid-19 Hotspot Update: Why the Surge in the South?

On June 24, I addressed the question Why the Surge in the South?

Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll

Meanwhile, Trump is Behind in Every Recent Battleground Poll. 

Trump is behind in all 17 of the most recent polls in 6 key battleground states. In addition, Trump trails in the most recent Ohio poll.

One of the reasons is his poor handling of Covid-19, which Trump has dubbed "ChinaVirus". 

If that is supposed to win votes, here's a hint: It wont.

Mish

Comments (81)
tokidoki
tokidoki

With Trump supporters refusing to wear masks, we will make sure that America will soon be great again.

numike
numike

I thought all this covid stuff was going to be gone in the hot summer months?? Did covid have other plans??

Woodturner
Woodturner

Mask wearing isn’t a political statement it’s an IQ test.

Stuki
Stuki

Unless/until other states/counties/cities/neighborhoods start blocking inbound travel from "hot spots," this stuff will never be contained.

China could only get away with completely shutting down and starving the virus in Hubei, because they fenced off the problem sufficiently that other regions could get back to some productive normalcy quicker. Ditto the different countries in Europe and the rest of Asia.

You can't solve this, by treating the whole country as a black box. Doing that, makes about as much sense as transferring all police to a giant police station in DC, and dispatching cops from there. Instead, a recursive divide and conquer strategy, is the only thing with any hope of working. If there are "hot" states, counties, cities or even neighborhoods, you have to prevent contagion from spilling over from them. The finer the granularity, and the tighter the boundaries, the better. Such that less affected regions can continue to be productive, and hence have resources to spare in aid of regions worse hit.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Katy (TX) Bar The Door

Sechel
Sechel

Facts are stubborn things. The reality is Trump's handling of covid-19 is an abject failure. Corona virus task force is starting up again led by Pence. Trump did not speak. Polls show the public views trump's handling a failure too. only about 1/3 think he did a good job which is basically his core base.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

I check CDC every day. Recent trend has been a little over 30K new cases ... and 600 to 800 deaths a day.

Today (for yesterday's reports)

40K .... and 2516 deaths

Anda
Anda

Not sure if the article was about ncov or Trump, but I think I remember why I started to read it, I thought I remembered...

The Fort Derrick virus, Gates virus... Chinavirus is as good if that is what Trump believes until proved wrong. I mean he is referencing the apparent source nation, which is better than Spanish flu, which is still used and rarely called out. Why not Catalan virus

where they are now verifying if the PCR tests on sewage samples from early last year are correct. Likely not, but it would make a good narrative for how unlikely sequences worked their way through to the virus.

Same goes with background infection rate, I thought there were several immunology studies underway, must have missed them but they would have helped round up the IFR. I'm not saying testing is cause for the increased detected cases, I don't believe China goes from Wuhan to no virus either. Just about everything to do with the virus seems designed to confuse, some has an explanation for it being that way if you study it, some not.

For most people I think the best attitude is to act like how it seemed around the time of going into lockdown, but without the lockdown. So that means take precaution while appreciating what is possible without major restrictions. Eventually we will know if the level was exagerrated, but the effect the virus has on some people is not.

Jojo
Jojo

Still trying to learn why MSNBC and CNN refuse to show hospitalized counts in their scary info bars on the TV screen. Could it be that there aren't enough hospitalizations compared to new cases to scare people enough?

Sechel
Sechel

Abbott had pursued up to now one of the most aggressive reopening schedules of any governor. The Republican not only resisted calls to order the wearing of masks but also refused until last week to let local governments take such measures.

thimk
thimk

Closing time for Texas and Florida . Wonder what other businesses will be effected ?

Lance Manly
Lance Manly

The big thing is what happens next weekend (4th). Do the young asymptomatic infected get close to their friends and family? If so then we are in for a hard time. Someone should tell Abbot about closing the barn door after the cows have gotten out.

NewUlm
NewUlm

Nearing real spike territory - defined as 10% daily case growth (trailing 5-days) vs active cases, aka the growth rate of an R3 - TX and FL are heading in that direction. Looking at Houston vs. NYC... it will take roughly 80K PCR confirmed cases to bend the curve down, they have 2/3 of the way to go. Also, we'll have the hospital effect accelerating - as UK published 10-20% of cases are acquired in a hospital setting, the US is likely worse not better.

Actual cases of C19, (finally) the CDC confirmed yesterday that 90% of cases are missed, the reality on the ground is 8-10x more cases in the community, which means the US likely over 20 million cases in total.

Deaths will lag by 10-14 days, hopefully, the younger demo and MATH+ or similar protocols (if hospitals are using it) will keep the numbers down.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

Just went through tRump's strategy again, and I suddenly realized that tRump is indeed the most stable genius: he must be playing 5-D chess! to Make America Great Again, you need to get rid of all those idiotic dumb people who give no respect to science and progress of the mankind. tRump is using Darwin to achieve his noble goal.

thimk
thimk

Interesting observation regarding the Florida county I live in. Number of cases doubled but hospitalizations /deaths remained static . No reported cases infecting manatees /s .

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

Lets run a controlled clinical trial. Shut down everything west of the Mississippi, and open everything east of it. Then see what happens.

Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

Did it occur to anyone that folks like JoJo are just trying to get a rise out of the rest of us? Best way to treat those type of comments is to count to 10 and ignore them.

Never try to match wits with an unarmed person.

njbr
njbr

A series of tweets yesterday from Florian Krammer yesterday, making the case that the rise in cases (mostly younger people) will be followed by an increase in deaths 3 to 4 weeks after the start of the spike. This was based on Iran's experrience and data--they have a big uptick in deaths now.

We'll have to wait til mid July to see if this will happen here, too.

Florian Krammer---Professor at the Department of Microbiology Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai

His tweets..

A lot of people see cases rising while deaths are going down in the US. Somebody who did not like my tweet earlier about the record cases today just pointed that out to me (and also calling me 'dipsh**'). So, I wanna tell a little story about Iran.......

There are many reasons why the CFR might go down. We test more, we find more cases. There might be many more younger people infected while older people are more careful and stay at home. Management of COVID-19 got better. There might be several more reasons.....

But I would be a little careful. So, Iran experienced a 'second wave' recently. Actually, it wasn't a second wave because the first one never went away. But anyways, after falling case numbers they started to rise again. I was curious about that on Twitter......

Below is the curve. It starts to go up around May 1st again. But deaths did not go up. People explained to me, that now mostly young people are getting infected so nothing bad would happen......

So, here is the graph for the deaths. That one started to rise again around May 25th. This is a solid 3-4 week delay. What happened? First, it takes time to die of COVID-19. Second, cases probably really built up in younger.....

......people. But they diffuse into older populations. And then the deaths rose (both graphs below ). Surely everybody - even the person calling me 'dipsh**' earlier - would agree that we need to do better than Iran. But looking at what happens in the US, I am not optimistic.

debracarter
debracarter

If me reading the stats everyday doesn't scare them, it's because, I hear, " I don't know anybody that's sick" attitude, so it must not be real"! It is a cleansing. Some people, I've been around @ the stores, think it's a conspiracy. Population control. They didn't scare us as much back in the 50/60/70' with chicken pox, measles, & didn't hear about deaths, as we are w/ COV 19. Maybe they should have. Need to test everybody, to many are unaware.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

I am hearing stories about panic buying at grocers in Houston area with new lockdown orders. Meat was already hard to come by for certain cuts and i assume will now get worse.

dr smock
dr smock

We have a lot to learn about this complicated virus, and we don't know how long it will take to conquer it. Doctors have discovered that some asymptomatic, infected corona virus individuals have scar tissue in their lungs right now that will be a serious problem for them later in life.

dr smock
dr smock

THE EMERGING LONG-TERM COMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19, EXPLAINED BY LOIS PARSHLEY, JUN 12, 2020
One study from China found that this ground-glass appearance showed up in scans of 77 percent of Covid-19 patients. In another study out of China, published in Radiology, 66 of 70 hospitalized patients had some amount of lung damage in CT scans, and more than half had the kind of lesions that are likely to develop into scars. (A third study from China suggests this is not just for critically ill patients; its authors found that of 58 asymptomatic patients, 95 percent also had evidence of these ground-glass opacities in their lungs. More than a quarter of these individuals went on to develop symptoms within a few days.)

“These kinds of tissue changes can cause permanent damage,” says Ali Gholamrezanezhad, a radiologist at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California.


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