Strong Jobs Report is Suspect

Mish
Jobs Establishment Survey
- Jobs November: 261,000
- Jobs December: 184,000
- Jobs January: 273,000.
- Jobs February: 273,000.
- Jobs Nov-Feb: 991,000
Employment Household Survey
- Employment November -8,000
- Employment December +267,000
- Employment January -89,000
- Employment February +45,000
- Employment Nov Feb: +215,000
U3 Baseline Unemployment
- U3 November: 3.5%
- U3 December: 3.5%
- U3 January: 3.6%
- U3 February: 3.5%
- U3 Net: 0.0%
U6 Unemployment
- U3 November: 6.8%
- U6 December: 6.7%
- U6 February: 7.0%
- U6 Net: -0.2%
What's Happening?
- In December and January, warm weather padded construction jobs.
- In January and February, government hiring padded jobs.
- In both cases, seasonal adjustments compounded the improvement.
Convergence
- We have seen these kinds of divergences before and they converge over times.
- However, the reports often converge due to revisions in one direction or another.
What is more likely in this case?
Given the huge seasonal adjustments and escalating coronavirus threat, I suggest the next set of revisions will be a convergence towards lower jobs and increasing unemployment rather than the other way around.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock