State Claims Decline But All Unemployment Claims Are on the Rise

Mish

Unemployment claims at the state level declined to the 18 million mark but all claims jumped to over 34 million.

All Continued Claims Rise for Third Week

Based on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, admittedly lagging, there is little or no improvement in the number of unemployed.

My "All Continued Claims" chart is the sum of state claims, federal claims, and various pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) claims. 

All claims lags continued claims by two weeks.

State Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 July 09 Report

Based on trends in PUA claims any improvement may be a mirage.

Primary PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 July 9 Report

Initial State Claims

Initial state Claims July 9 Data

Continued state claims lag initial claims by a week. There are new claims but also people find jobs.

The number of initial claims is down from the pandemic surge but is very elevated historically.

People must first file at the state level but some do not qualify. And some who did qualify exhausted state benefits and now need to apply for PUA.

Not a Pretty Picture

The trends suggest the unemployment picture is not improving much. Instead, people who qualified at the state level now need PUA assistance.

Add it up and there are 20 to 30 million people unemployed.

Fewer People Pay Their Rent on Time in July

That Fewer People Pay Their Rent on Time in July suggests more people are struggling.

United Warns It May Cut 36,000 Employees

Factor in United Warns It May Cut 36,000 Employees. All the airlines are in the same boat. 

In general, state reopenings are in reverse and that will slow if not reverse some labor gains.

Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

If you are looking for a nonsensical claim, here you go Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

Mish

Comments (12)
No. 1-7
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"The number of initial claims is down from the pandemic surge but is very elevated historically."

...

Some context.

The peak week - ending March 28th, 2009 - for initial claims during GFC:

665,000

Carl_R
Carl_R

Who got all those 51 million jobs? Why didn't some of them go to the unemployed?
/-sarc

tokidoki
tokidoki

So much winning.

Jackula
Jackula

I have several friends here in LA trying to file for unemployment....unable to get it done cause systems are overloaded

Carl_R
Carl_R

Here is state by state data:

Almost all states are 8.9% or above. The lowest are Nebraska at 5.2%, over 3 points better than anyone else, then Utah at 8.5%, then Wyoming at 8.8%.

One thing Nebraska did well is that our governor actively promoted the PPP. He worked with the state's community bankers to be able to efficiently process loans, and made sure businesses were aware of the program. Appoximately 85% of the state's payroll was covered by PPP. If there will be a jump in unemployment after the completion of PPP, you should see it in Nebraska.

At the other extreme, the worst are Hawaii at 22.6% and Nevada at 25.3%. When your economy revolves around tourism, Covid19 really hits the economy hard.

anoop
anoop

stop analyzing the data which everyone knows is negative; focus on the nasdaq which is guaranteed to be positive!

bradw2k
bradw2k

I got a haircut last week! Okay that's not big news. But what's interesting is my stylist said she has been spending about 4 hours each day dialing to reach the Oregon unemployment department. Still hasn't received a penny.


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