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Second Yield Curve Inversion Today: Did You Catch It?

Mish

I missed another inversion today. So did Bloomberg. A reader of mine caught it from a chart I posted.

In addition to the inversion between the 5- and 3-year yields. Today also sported a smaller inversion between the 5- and 2-year yields.

Thanks to reader Schaap60 for the accurate spot.

5-Year to 2-Year Inversion

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For further discussion, please see First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?

I repeat my assessment:

  • The classic recession signal that most follow is a 2-10 inversion. I doubt we see a 2-10 inversion before recession hits.
  • My call: There will not be the warning nearly everyone is waiting for.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-5
Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Trillion$+ deficit and the economy is still clearly heading into recession. This is scary.

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

MSM does not give credit. I do. Thanks to reader Schaap60 for the accurate spot.

gregggg
gregggg

Saw the 3 and 5 were both 2.840.... I think it was yesterday. The 20 & 30 have been inverted for about a year now.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

It would be interesting to see if inversions occur in the German and UK bonds leading up to a recession. If yield inversions are happening globally then the 10-2yr yield spread doesn't matter.

Ted R
Ted R

If this isn't a sign of Deflation than I don't know what is. Looks like 1929 all over again.

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