Scientists Estimate 44,000 Virus Cases, Doubling Every 6 Days

Mish

Reliable estimates from scientists suggest massive under-reporting of cases as well as chance of spreading.

The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) reports nCoV spread in China's cities could trigger global epidemic.

At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the city's cases will double over the next 6 days.

Lisa Gralinski, PhD, a coronavirus researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, noted on Twitter last night that the 2019-nCoV total has already topped that of MERS-CoV, which at nearly 2,500 cases since 2012 continues to sicken people, mostly in Saudi Arabia.

Real-Time Nowcast

CIDRAP linked to this Real-time nowcast and forecast on the extent of the Wuhan CoV outbreak by Professors Gabriel Leung and Joseph Wu of the LKS Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong.

The featured chart is from the above link. Here is another one.

Too Late for Wuhan Quarantine

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Global Epidemic Points From the Hong Kong Report

  • 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic
  • Self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in all major Chinese cities
  • Seeding outside mainland China and subsequent local establishment may become inevitable, unless some or all of the following interventions are deployed quickly:
  1. Substantial, draconian measures limiting population mobility taken immediately
  2. Cancellation of mass gatherings
  3. School closures
  4. Instituting work-from-home arrangements

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding Comments

CDC Too Late, and Way Behind the Curve

Higher Pandemic Risk than SARS

The Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory comments on the Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

As of January 23, 2020, a total of 830 confirmed 2019-nCoV cases were identified across China, and 9 cases were reported overseas. The average incubation duration of 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8days. The average period from onset of symptoms to isolation of 2019-nCoV and SARS cases were 2.9 and 4.2 days, respectively. The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 (95%CI: 2.32-3.63) and 2.92 (95%CI: 2.28-3.67) estimated using EG and ML respectively, while the corresponding R values of SARS-CoV were 1.77 (95%CI: 1.37-2.27) and 1.85 (95%CI: 1.32-2.49). We observe a decreasing trend of the period from onset to isolation and R values of both 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV. Interpretation: The 2019-nCoV may have a higher pandemic risk than SARS broken out in 2003. The implemented public-health efforts have significantly decreased the pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV. However, more rigorous control and prevention strategies and measures to contain its further spread.

The authors say "This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review."

Trajectory Based on R0 of 2.6

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Self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan. We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18th January 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak.

Illustration of estimation method for central estimate of R0=2.6. Red curve represents median cumulative case numbers over time, calculated from 5000 simulated trajectories of the epidemic, assuming zoonotic exposure of 40 cases in December 2019 and the generation time and variability in infectiousness of SARS. The grey region indicates the 95 percentile range of trajectories – individual simulated epidemics (a random subset of which are shown as light grey curves) are highly variable, reflecting the random nature of disease transmission. Dotted lines indicate January 18th (vertical) and 4000 cumulative cases (horizontal).

The above discussion and chart from Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK.

106 Admitted Deaths

100% guaranteed to be drastically understated. Many reported cases already labeled as pneumonia.

British Quarantine Underway

A Word About Trust

Meanwhile, please note Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (52)
No. 1-16
lol
lol

Nothing should leave China period,even if they quarantine everybody,all that cheap junk they produce is contaminated and being shipped to Walmart,Dollar General,Home Depot,What will Fidel Trump do when Walmart cashiers start droppin like flies?

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

I have told several people this is coming. I generally get the your crazy as hell look followed by an ok.

Pain is the only teacher in life. I have a felling this virus is setting us up for a lot of pain economically and physically.

Don’t think anyone has priced this in yet.

@Mish
What happens when all shipment are stopped from China? Where will Apple get there phones? If this virus can survive 2 weeks on certain surfaces it will have to happen at some point. Then what with Apple stock? Priced in right?

Edit. Looking at google fights it looks like you can get on a flight right now from Wuhan to Atlanta.
Has to be wrong.

Realist
Realist

What’s this ? Now Mish agrees with scientists! Say it ain’t so! Isn’t this another obvious conspiracy Mish?

tz3
tz3

One caution for either optimism or pessimism - it may "double" 6 days on average, but there will be spurts and starts.
Often infections create a group so it increases rapidly, then no new KNOWN cases for a few days, then it spikes again.

Do not assume because they haven't found new cases there are none, especially since in this case for the first week you are contagious but show no symptoms.

tz3
tz3

Addendum: This is a reason to ban all flights and go to lockdown and quarantine. If this were a disease where you already had detectable specific symptoms BEFORE you were contagious, you could just fillter out those with those symptoms. But in this case it isn't clear there is something wrong for the first week, and you are infecting everyone around you for that period. The other half of the reason is the severe symptoms, even death. Wait until one homeless person gets it. Or even one employee at a tech firm. It WILL spread.

leonamargret10
leonamargret10

Very sad to hear this news. The uncontrollable increase of viruses may cause different diseases hostsailor and that may easily transfer to the other people and animals. Recently they also find another virus called Coronavirus that affects our liver and its functioning.

wootendw
wootendw

IMAO, this being overhyped.

An R0 of < 2.5 isn't very contagious - about the same as other influenzas. SARS ranged from 2 to 5.

But, the Chinese government may be responsible for it and that may be the source of panic on its part.

obstruksion
obstruksion

Mish, what is your financial relationship with Chris Martenson and do you get kickbacks for driving traffic to his site? What about people who purchase his paywalled information? This information should be disclosed. Thanks

KidHorn
KidHorn

Anyone know how the virus kills people? Do their lungs fill with fluid? Do they die from tissue damage?

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

... Stocks are up today ( CBs been buying? )....So everything is OK! It is all a matter of sticking our heads a bit deeper into the sands, and algorithms don t know shit about viruses yet...So, like I said, evwything is awright ! Buy the dips !

ksdude69
ksdude69

IMO part of the hesitation to actually take the required steps are due to the condition of the finance system/economy. Imagine crashing markets, trade halted etc when we all know how things really are. Now we'll get to experience that AND be sick as hell. Thanks.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Thailand saw a big jump in the last day, from 8 to 14. Right now China is the only country with more than a few cases, but Thailand seems to be the leading contender to be the second country with a significant outbreak.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Does anyone here have any thoughts about the low number of "recovered" 2019-nCoV cases versus "deaths?" I understand it likely takes longer for a seriously ill person to recover than die, and most confirmed cases have yet to run their course, but this bug has been around longer than 1 month in the province of Hubei, China, and that should have been enough time for a fair number of people to recover. Number of "recovered" in that location is currently 52, while number of "deaths" is currently 100.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Overall the reported cases are growing much faster than doubling every six days. To double every six days, reported cases would have to grow about 12% a day. Over the last 4 days we have gone from 915 to 5578 a rate of 57% a day. It could be that reported cases are just catching up with actual cases, and that actual cases are growing 12% a day. It could also be that R0 is higher than previously believed.

It is also true that reported cases outside of China are not growing nearly as fast as the cases within China. That could be because the cases outside of China are all imported, and that cases from transmission overseas have not advanced far enough to be detected yet. If it takes about 10 days for symptoms to show, it will most likely be a couple weeks before we see large numbers of cases in other countries.

Guinny_Ire
Guinny_Ire

I'm inclined not believe this (though I've bought the masks and plan on restocking canned food and freezer food). Why an I not inclined? I think of the climate scientist and the weatherman. There is a motive to overhype all events whether it is conscience or a sub-conscience decision. The weatherman knows people tune into to see the weather and how "it will affect them". And people know that most weathermen are wrong thru no volition of their own. It's their moment. And for the climate scientist and all those who tout climate change. But for the scientists it equates to money and others prestige that they're saving the planet (would love to see the % of prius owners of Climate Change Believers). And for a doctor, in a localized crisis, this would be their moment too. Not of glory but what they've trained for. I accept that my thinking has the possibility of the accuracy of the weatherman.

alanking
alanking

It has been 6 days, 88000 yet ? oh nvm, must be evil CCP covering up again.
so long as numbers don't fit, has to be ccp covering up