Russia Now Second After US in Covid-19 Cases

Mish

According to Worldometer and Johns Hopkins University, Russia now ranks second in the world for confirmed coronavirus cases.

The cornanavirus is sweeping across Russia but one might not understand that judging from the reported Covid-10 numbers, especially deaths per million population.

The Russian capital has been hardest hit. Of Russia's total of 281,752 confirmed cases, over half -- 142,824 -- are in Moscow, the country's coronavirus headquarters said Sunday. But the virus is now spreading across Russia's regions, an enormous landmass that covers 11 time zones and includes some of the country's most remote and impoverished places.

Coronavirus Cases 

coronavirus cases 2020-05-17

The above chart from Worldometer.

Massive Undercounts

Russia is in second place but the posted numbers are not believable, especially deaths per million.

Russia defends its numbers but it requires an autopsy to confirm a Covid-19 death. 

As with China, no one believes Russia's published numbers.

Mish

Comments (34)
No. 1-10
Realist
Realist

I expect Brazil to pass Russian infections in a few weeks. Next up, India, which I expect to pass the US eventually. This is not going away for a few years. Hopefully, several vaccines will be developed that will eventually help.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Russia is doing a lot more tests than most countries, which means they are catching a higher percentage of cases. Also, they are another far northern country, and may, for whatever reason, have a naturally lower death rate, just as was true in Iceland, Finland, and Norway. No one knows why their death rate is lower in the far North, but there is no question that it is, and that that lower rate is what allowed Sweden to have the policies they had.

Once this is all over, it will be interesting to see someone untangle why some places report a death rate of 12% and some report a death rate of 1%.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Russia male life expectancy is 67.5
Female is 77.5
Overall is 72.5

Since this virus kills more males than females I would expect their death rate to be lower because of the lower male age.

The numbers are of course an extremely lagging indicator especially when adding in a backed up autopsy system.

Overall they should have a .7-1% IFR

GeorgeWP
GeorgeWP

Their count might be accurate according to the criteria they set. The autopsy rule is like how working for one hour a week means someone is counted as employed. The UK's figures on the other hand are very bad, but they also have a broader assessment that includes those who die outside hospital. Even comparing historical death rates will be open to interpretation, since a lot less folk should be dying of flu and other communicable diseases, while some other folk aren't going for medical treatment and maybe dying earlier than they would have.

Tengen
Tengen

Agree with Mish that Russia's death count is dubious. As the months go by, these anomalies are easier to spot. In Russia's defense, they may not be counting deaths but at least they are counting cases. China counts neither category.

Still waiting on the results of the mandatory Wuhan tests to see if the same people are getting the virus repeatedly. Apparently the testing began on 5/14 and they're up to well over 200K tests per day. If results are favorable they will likely trumpet the results. If the findings are ominous, I expect silence from China accompanied by unexplained lockdowns.

Anda
Anda

What is funny with Russia is they closed off China at the start, but seemed to keep contact more open with europe even after there was something of an epidemic going in europe, which looks like the source of the outbreak there. Also Russia has its enemies, so I guess seeding an outbreak by any is a possibility.

Montana33
Montana33

Russia is fudging their numbers as are Brazil and Mexico.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

The only reliable number that matters at this point is excess mortality (as stressed by Chris Martenson), because of the differences between standards.


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