Retail Sales Badly Miss Expectations, Why?
Percent Change From Previous Month
Totals were about 30-40% under projections and that is on top of huge negative revisions for July.
The "control group" projections were not even in the ballpark at -0.2% vs expectations of a 0.5% bounce.
The control group is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials.
On July 25, Pandemic assistance checks of $600 per week ran out.
About 30 million people were collecting checks.
30 million * $600 per week * 5 weeks = $90 billion.
Some of those people went back to work, but many of them didn't.
When I looked at the projections last night I thought they were off.
Some thinking individuals saved some of their pandemic checks, and some others went back to work.
The rest faced the cliff. September rates to be worse.