PPI Much Hotter Than Expected But Bond Yields Flat
The BLS reports the Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5 percent in January.
Final Demand Services
The index for final demand services climbed 0.7 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.7 percent in October 2018. In January, margins for final demand trade services advanced 1.2 percent, and prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing moved up 0.6 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 1.6 percent.
Forty percent of the January increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which jumped 10.3 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; inpatient care; guestroom rental; and portfolio management also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services decreased 5.8 percent. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling and for wireless telecommunication services also declined.
Final Demand Goods
Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in January, the fourth consecutive rise. Leading the January increase, the index for final demand goods less foods and energy climbed 0.3 percent. Prices for final demand foods advanced 0.2 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand energy fell 0.7 percent.
Much Hotter Than Expected
The Econoday consensus was for a 0.1% rise with a range of -0.3% to +0.2%.
Economists were not in the ballpark and there was an upward revision in December from +0.1% to +0.2%.
Bond Market Reaction
- Yield on the 30-Year Long Bond: Flat
- Yield on the 10-Year Note: Flat
- Yield on the 2-Year Note: Up 1 Basis Point
- Yield on the 3-Month T-Bill: Flat
The reaction to the PPI was as interesting as the move itself.
Despite what appears to be inflationary pressures, the bond market just sat there and stared.
It always hard to say why the market did any particular thing, but a huge coronavirus-related supply chain disruption is coming up.
Yesterday I commented Largest Shipping Decline Since 2009 and That's Before Coronavirus
In light of recent events, perhaps the January PPI data is now too old for a reaction.
Supply chain disruptions have barely started.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock