Peter Schiff’s Delusional Forecast
Today we learn “Schiff’s accurate prediction of the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown inspired the Academy Award-nominated film, The Big Short“.
The above image from an ad on Pro Wall Street Daily.
His “prediction” allegedly inspired the movie. Really? Is that delusional or what?
Schiff’s delusions don’t stop there.
In the very next sentence, Schiff predicts “no police“. And Schiff is back at it with hyperinflation nonsense.
Single Biggest Event In Human History
According to Schiff, Dollar Collapse Will Be the Single Biggest Event In Human History.
“This will be the first event that will touch every single living person in the world. All human activity is controlled by money. Our wealth, our work, our food, our government, even our relationships are affected by money.”
“No money in human history has had as much reach in both breadth and depth as the dollar. It is the de facto world currency. All other currency collapses will pale in comparison to this big one. All other currency crises have been regional and there were other currencies for people to grasp on to.”
“THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE WILL BE THE SINGLE LARGEST EVENT IN HUMAN HISTORY!”
“This collapse will be global and it will bring down not only the dollar but all other fiat currencies, as they are fundamentally no different. The collapse of currencies will lead to the collapse of ALL paper assets. The repercussions to this will have incredible results worldwide”
“What makes this story even more infuriating, is that it wasn’t necessary. It didn’t have to happen.”
I have seen Schiff’s hype in other places recently and in each excerpt, Schiff textually-screamed in bold caps “THE DOLLAR COLLAPSE WILL BE THE SINGLE LARGEST EVENT IN HUMAN HISTORY!”
Schiff also says “When The Economy Crashes Parts Of America Will Resemble A 3rd World Country.”
Pedaling Snake Oil
I assure you any upcoming dollar crisis will not be the single largest event in human history, ahead of WWII, WWI, the Great Depression, the Medieval collapse, the Renaissance, and countless other ideas including the internet and the future impact of self-driving vehicles.
Whenever anyone make such absurd claims, you know they act like carnival barkers peddling snake oil.
Reflections on Gold
Like Schiff, I advise holding gold. For a couple of years, however, doing so was a very painful experience.
It now appears gold has bottomed, and if so, here are five reasons.
- Negative interest rates
- Competitive currency debasement
- Totally out of control central bank actions
- Trillions of dollars of debt that cannot possibly be paid back
- Renewed lack of faith that central banks have everything under control
Without making absurd claims of where gold is headed, I simply advise holding a decent portion of one’s assets in the metal.
How much depends of risk tolerance, but a level of 20% or so seems like a reasonable starting point of discussion.
For those who do not understand gold, and for those who would be uncomfortable holding much of anything that does not have a yield, a level of 5% might be more appropriate.
For others, 35% might be appropriate. If any investment causes a loss of sleep, it’s too much.
Global Currency Crisis
Like Schiff, I am a firm believer a global currency crisis awaits. I have stated that belief many times over the years.
However, a currency crisis is more likely to start outside the US. Leading candidates include Japan, China, and the Eurozone. Canada is a possibly, as is the UK.
Even if a currency crisis starts in the US, the crisis won’t be the single largest event in human history.
Unlike Schiff, I don’t pretend to know so many details on how it will play out. I also don’t pretend to know when it starts.
Schiff’s Dollar Myopia
With every country doing the same thing, even more so than the Fed in regards to negative rates, it’s downright silly to focus on the dollar.
Why not put a spotlight on the Yuan or the Yen? What about the possibility (if not outright likelihood) of a very destructive breakup of the eurozone?
Schiff not only maintains his US dollar myopia, he brought that myopia to a new level, to the point of believing police will vanish in the US.
Peter Schiff is either delusional or he buys into the idea that preposterous marketing hype sells. I strongly suspect both.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock