People in Five States Say Get Me Outta Here

Mish

It's easy to guess the states people are leaving. Can you guess the top states where people are headed?

Top Outbound States

Toip Outbound States

Top Inbound States 

Top Inbound States

The above numbers are on a percentage basis of inbound to outbound moves, not absolute numbers. 

The report is from North American Moving Services.

Key Takeaways from the 2020 Migration Report

  • People are fleeing California for Texas and Idaho
  • Illinois, New York, and New Jersey are the three states with the most outbound moves. 
  • The top five inbound states in 2020 are Idaho, Arizona, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina, with Tennessee overtaking South Carolina from the 2019 results. 
  • Florida, Texas, and Colorado round out the top eight states for inbound moves. 
  • Despite pandemic, people continued to move at rates comparable to 2019

Top Five Destination Cities

  1. Phoenix 
  2. Houston 
  3. Dallas 
  4. Atlanta 
  5. Denver 

Top Five Exodus Cities

  1. New York 
  2. Anaheim, Calif. 
  3. San Diego 
  4. Chicago 
  5. Riverside, Calif.

I am disappointed the report did not have absolute numbers, making the study flawed. 

Nonetheless, Idaho is interesting.

Idaho has made the top 10 each year since 2015, most of the time on the top of the list. 

Congratulations to Idaho and of course Illinois in reverse, a state I have written about many times.

Q: Why does it take 3 weeks to leave Illinois?
A: Everyone is leaving and that is how long it took to schedule a one-way van out. 

"Everyone is leaving. No one is coming," a U-Haul agent told us.

We love it here in Utah. The photo opportunism are endless. There are 7 national parks within 5 hours or so of where we live. 

Mish

Comments (55)
No. 1-23
Tengen
Tengen

I lived in CO from 2003 to 2017. Blew up while I was there, so much so that the locals who whined about it considered me one of the old guard by the time I left.

Where I grew up in small town Ohio, you weren't local unless your grandparents were born there.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

I read the report and aside from weather and jobs as reasons it doesnt really say much. I would like to know the detail demographics: age, sex, race/ethnicity, family size, etc.

Many of the states listed as inbound have huge multicultural multilingual populations: Texas, Arizona, Colorodo, and Florida come to mind, of course many are close to the border as well.

One-armed Economist
One-armed Economist

RE: People's expectation that TX no tax is the way to go. Been there, live there. Let me point out the TX experiment ONLY WORKS IF YOU ARE ASURADLY ON THE UP AND UP. (And able to handle HIGH road tolls for their paved jungle and NO serious mass transit.)
SHOULD you need anything - AND INEVITABLY YOU WILL AT SOME POINT - there's a reason TX has no State tax - THEY DON'T PAY CRAP FOR BASIC SUPPORTS.
TX IS LAST (NOT SECOND TO LAST - LAST!), LAST IN THE NATION IN:
Nursing Home Care. NP if you don't get old
Mental Health Care (moreover the State has backwards laws that'll care this benefit support OUT OF EVEN REGULAR NORMAL POLICIES (say BC/BS) so IT'LL ALL BE OUT OF POCKET FOR MOST. Need a regular Med, say basic generic anti-depressant? State law prevents your regular Dr from being able to write even 1 script for you. (This unnecessary restriction is clearly a gift for the mental Dr's.)
Unemployment? Plan on waiting months and > 60 calls a day for days to TRY and catch someone.
On, and on. TX doesn't fund s*** but highways w/ digital tag readers to pay for it.

Greenmountain
Greenmountain

Will be interesting to look at this in five years. People move, but miss the perks, seasons, whatever. Our numbers small but given demand curve we are off the charts.

Sechel
Sechel

If you're moving from New York to South Carolina odds are you are either retired or low skilled.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

San Juan County Utah calls itself "The World's Largest Outdoor Museum." I've been to 4 of Utah's 5 Nat'l Parks and several State Parks. Utah, California and Hawai'i are off the charts beautiful.

I'm glad people are leaving my home of California. I would gladly retire or relocate to North Carolina.

These migrations will hasten the demise of conservatism, turning red states purple then blue.

On the eve of history and a return to sanity, may conservatives adapt, lest they die out.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I miss Utah. It’s only the second time in 20 years that I wasn’t there for New Years. I hope the vaccine will prove to make travel safer, so that we can still get a few days in skiing.

Glad to see Austin is not on any of your lists.....but it doesn’t matter, Zillow says we’re number one. Gotta love the internet.

amigator
amigator

Let's hope those people remember WHY they let their previous state odf domicile and don't make the same mistakes in their new one.... I doubt seriously they will and pretty soon those states will be blue as your map portrays.

njbr
njbr

Red states turning blue...

Wyoming1
Wyoming1

I think that this source might be a bit shaky. According to official figures from the state govt the population of Calif grew in the last year - albite at a very slow rate. And it has grown every year for the last 100 years. I live in AZ and am familiar with the arrivals from CA into our community. Retirees seeking lower costs and youngin's moving for work (though that is cramped right now). Those folks are the biggest driver that is turning AZ into a purple/blue state since they are overwhelmingly not AZ conservative in inclination. When I first moved to AZ the locals were all happy about folks moving in and just assumed that they were coming because they liked the AZ conservative outlook on life (I just keep my mouth shut and chuckled). Now they realize it had nothing to do with it and the newcomers are setting about 'fixing' all the things about AZ they don't like - and they are not at all happy about it. The governorship is next in line and it is going to be very close.

Bungalow Bill
Bungalow Bill

I am part of the Chicago exodus like you Mish. Your article reminds me of sitting on an airplane on another business trip many, many years ago. Two men were behind me discussing where they were from. One was from Chicago, and the other from New York. The gentleman from New York said he loved visiting Chicago (which I still believe is a great city that offers lots if you can get past the taxes and liberal policies), but he noted living in New York had one advantage--easy escape to the mountains and a happier place. Where in Illinois, all you have is corn fields for miles and miles. Hard to escape the reality of the city for what you now enjoy living outside of the Chicago area.

I left almost 14 years ago. I love visiting, but I could never move back to Chicago.

blackduck
blackduck

Odd they are going to states that are dependent on government largesse.

LewisM
LewisM

When I moved to CA in 2000 the population was 29 million. Today, twenty years later, it's 39 million. So much for the mass exodus. Also, Texas sounds great until you realize they have some of the highest property taxes in the nation. You pay one way or the other.

Quanta
Quanta

Here in California taxes and costs are through the roof, it's true.
However those people and businesses moving out in search of a better life are kidding themselves.
California has giant ocean ports with low cost inbound freight from China / Asia. Costs for rail transportation (from California) to inland rise significantly.
California population has grown in the last 20 years as LewisM pointed out.

frozeninthenorth
frozeninthenorth

Mish, the latest stats for California showed positive population growth rate of 0.05%; so strictly speaking California's population is not shrinking. However, with US population growth rate of 2.1% p.a then California's share of the population is shrinking... Nice to be both right and wrong

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

All these arguments about taxes have some truth in them.....but the devil is in the details of the specific individual.

If you own a ten million buck mansion in Texas, in most areas you’re gonna pay a hell of lot of property tax.

If you put the same $10M into fifty 200K rental properties, the tax just becomes another expense item, and the tenants are going to pay it anyway. It’s a cost of doing business.

In general, you can pay some fairly high property taxes on your own house, and still come out better than paying some 5% state income tax. Do the math.

I’m not sure about many things in the future...but one thing I am willing to bet is that Texas will never have a state income tax...at least in my lifetime.

Brother
Brother

30 miles from the California coast is where everyone lives. If you travel out further it's pretty much a different state. Every tax in Cal. is among the highest in the nation. Gas prices are a full dollar higher at least. Schools are among the lowest rated on average.(LA county). Other than the WEATHER the place is an overpopulated retail center. Yes we have had enough too after 50 years.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I grew up in Texas, live in California and have lived in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. I haven't stopped getting wealthier no matter where I lived both in the pocketbook and the experiences life has to offer coast to coast. At the end of the day, we picked California for the very fact that growth IS slowing here. 10 years ago we decided against Texas because they don't care about rampant growth or quality of life for the people that already lived there. Houses as far as the eye could see. It is reminiscent of California in the 1990s. This past week I went the mountains to the go snowboarding when it was 70 degrees at sea level. It was a 1 hour drive. I guess if you can't afford to live here or find a job and a life that works for you then I can understand why you would leave. The only risk here is the wildfires going forward. That may eventually drive us out of the state but the last time California had droughts as bad as they've had the last 10 years, there was a biblical flood of rain for decades after that. California won't be able to tax their way out of anything but this is a good thing and a check on everything. Literally every tax measure has been voted down in 2020. My guess is California will get someone like Faulconer as governor at some point. Someone who is socially liberal but fiscally conservative and believes in jobs programs for the masses. He isn't your typical Republican and is likely what the Republican party needs going forward. These political cycles have long swings in the pendulum. In any case, I think there are 50 states and plenty of places to pick and choose from no matter who you are. I am glad for that. And leaving a place doesn't mean you can't go back.

RonJ
RonJ

"People in Five States Say Get Me Outta Here"

How soon until it is all 50?

LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird

Figures that are not normalized for state population are pretty meaningless. 10K people leaving say, NH, is a lot different than 10K leaving NY.

Neoliberal Elitist
Neoliberal Elitist

The reality is that the blue states are in trouble because their residents have to pay the same taxes twice — once to subsidize the red states (who feast on a gusher of federal tax money) and once again to pay for their own services.

Illinoisans, for example, see about 1/3 of their federal taxes go to other states that use the money to artificially lower their own taxes. If that money stayed in state, they’d have a surplus and no financial problems. They’d be able reduce real estate and income taxes by enormous amounts, but Indiana, Iowa and other states leeching off of them would have to raise taxes.

Once NY, CA, NJ, and MI go broke, the red states like FL, IA, IN, and the Carolinas are going to face an enormous fiscal crisis.

The only “red” state that won’t is Texas. And TX will be in the same situation IL and NY are in today, as they become huge net payers to red states and have to increase taxes to cover their own needs.

Sooner or later the red states need to develop an innovation economy and start paying their own way. Their demands for massive federal redistributionism, while then claiming to be smartly run, work on the ignorant, but they won’t fix things when the blue states pull the plug.


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