Without a Deal 12 Million Will Soon Lose All Unemployment Benefits

Mish

PEUC claims jumped to 4,376,847 in Thursday's report.

Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation

PEUC claims come into play after someone exhausts all their regular state unemployment benefits. 

Benefits Rapidly Expiring

Unemployment Insurance Varies Widely

My chart above is modified from CBPP Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Policy Basics: How Many Weeks of Unemployment Compensation Are Available?

Where I show two numbers, the first number is regular state unemployment insurance and the second number (if present) represents extended benefits.

Key Points

  1. Most states offer at least 26 weeks of unemployment insurance plus 13 or more weeks of extended benefits. Some states offer more. States offering 30 or fewer weeks are noted.
  2. A Federal pandemic PEUC (Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) program kicks in after regular state programs expire. PEUC provides 13 weeks of compensation at the paid state level but the money comes from the federal government. Every state participates in PEUC. It kicks in before extended benefits.
  3. Persons not eligible for state claims can file for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program. PUA covers gig workers and self-employed workers who are not covered by state programs. It also covers part-time workers. PUA is rife with fraud and terrible reporting.
  4. After PEUC expires, most but not all states have Extended Benefit programs also paid by the federal government but not every state is in the program. 

Week 35 of Pandemic Unemployment Spike

Week 35 of Pandemic Unemployment Spike

Unemployment Math

  • Unemployment spiked on March 21.
  • We are in week 35 of the pandemic.
  • The federal government provides 13 weeks of unemployment insurance to all states.
  • 35 - 13 = 22.

If you lost your job early in any state that provides 22 or less weeks of state + extended benefits, then you have exhausted all of your state benefits and all of your PEUC benefits. 

Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina ,Missouri and Idaho are all in that group. 

PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 Nov 19 Report

PUA Rules

Please consider the Justia report on Coronavirus and Unemployment Benefits: 50-State Resources.

The PUA benefit amount is distinct from the standard unemployment benefit amount listed for each state. It cannot exceed the maximum weekly unemployment benefit in the claimant’s state, and the minimum amount is half of the applicable state’s average weekly unemployment benefit amount.

States With Expired or Expiring Programs

  • Alabama: Standard Benefit Amount: $45 - $275 per week
  • Arkansas: Standard Benefit Amount: $81 - $451 per week
  • Florida: Standard Benefit Amount: $32 - $275 per week
  • North Carolina: Standard Benefit Amount: $15 - $350 per week
  • Missouri: Standard Benefit Amount: $35 - $320 per week
  • Idaho: Standard Benefit Amount: $72 - $448 per week

Those who expired all of their state benefits will get no more than the listed maximums. The minimum is a mere 50% of the state average.

Massachusetts and Washington provide the highest benefits with maximums over $800.

Five states (Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee) have a maximum weekly benefit under $300.

Mississippi was dead last at $235 per week.

12 Million Face Unemployment Benefit Cliff On December 26

The Century Foundation reports 12 Million Workers Facing Jobless Benefit Cliff on December 26

  • Based on the number of people already on federal and state benefits, we estimate that 12 million workers will be on one of the two main CARES Act programs—PUA and PEUC—when funding expires on December 26.
  • An estimated 4.6 million workers will see their PEUC benefits prematurely expire on December 26. Moreover, an additional 3.5 million will have already run out of PEUC benefits before the December 26 cutoff.
  • An estimated 7.3 million workers will see their PUA benefits expire on December 26, and 945,000 will run out of PUA before December. 
  • A total of more than 16 million workers will have lost CARES Act benefits by the end of the year. 

Those estimate coincide with my analysis above. 

But note that that many in Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, and Tennessee are already over the cliff. 

Unless there is a deal, about 12 million people will lose all their unemployment benefits in December.

Bankruptcies, evictions, and foreclosures will soar.

I expect a deal, but it will not be the all encompassing deal that Democrats want.

Mish

Comments (36)
No. 1-10
Eddie_T
Eddie_T

The failure of the Congress to pass more relief measures for the people at the bottom of the food chain is appalling, and it won’t take too long for the chickens to come home to roost.

I hope the Trump base understands that it’s McConnell, the guy they just voted back into office, who is going to let them starve and put the on the street right at Christmas. But I’m sure they won’t. You can’t fix stupid.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Sad.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

Kyle Rittenhouse used his COVID check to buy the AR-15 knockoff he took to Kenosha...I wonder how many people bought guns with money that was intended to put food on the table for families?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Ivanka Trump Praises Her Dad for Vaccine Research Started Under Obama

So what exactly was Ivanka talking about? It turns out that Moderna did get started on its COVID vaccine on January 13, two days after China released the virus’ genetic sequence. A document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission explains that on that date, the company’s researchers “finalized the sequence for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine” and it “mobilized toward clinical manufacture.” That step was taken in collaboration with the Vaccine Research Center, which is under the National Institutes for Health (NIH). Even if Trump wasn’t personally involved, can’t he take credit for his administration’s role in this moment?

It’s not that simple. Moderna’s partnership with the feds to develop messenger RNA technology, which its coronavirus vaccine is based on, began long before the novel coronavirus flared up. The Pentagon funded the company’s mRNA research in 2013, and the federal government gave it $125 million to develop a mRNA-based Zika vaccine in 2016. Its COVID-related work on January 13 appears to have been completed under an already existing research agreement with the NIH, according to a review by the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.

In short, Trump didn’t swoop in to launch the Moderna-NIH COVID vaccine partnership. Rather, his administration piggybacked on an ongoing collaboration whose initial agreements were signed in—checking the fine print—November 2015. Maybe Ivanka should have added, “Thanks, Obama.”

Johnson1
Johnson1

Since 2008, there has been a total of $36 Trillion in bailouts. Obama benefited from $32 trillion or about $4 trillion per year. Trump received $3 trillion for COVID, so about $1 Trillion per year.

I wonder how much Biden will get?

Johnson1
Johnson1

Missouri's unemployment rate is pretty low. It is at 4.9%. Down from 10% during the lockdown. It was 4% in March pre covid. So the good thing is that there are not that many needing assistance than normally. Typically range over the past 6 years in the 4% to 6% range. So definitely in normal range.

silverdog148
silverdog148

This is going to get interesting as Trump is in "burn it down" mode given the election loss. It's going to get dicey for the Republicans as without hundreds of billions in government paper supporting the economy, a bunch of "structural" supports are going to start showing stress.

It's a good questions as to whether Trump supporters even care about this as they seem to be in "burn it down" mode also, be careful what you wish for. Look at the Kyle kid who bought the AR-15 with stimulus money and then went out and ruined his life no matter what way the courts decide, a lot of people getting caught up in social media echo chambers, not realizing the real world outside of the chamber has it's own reality. When both come in contact like they did with the Kyle kid it's going to be an ugly result and nobody wins in that scenario.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

Look at the Kyle kid who bought the AR-15 with stimulus money and then went out and ruined two other people's lives and their families lives.

Fify

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Maybe McConnell is angling for a bill that allows cities and states to declare bankruptcy. That would be the ideal situation since defaulting on the national debt would force the US to give up its control over the financial world through the US dollar.


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