Over 30 Million People About to Lose $600 in Unemployment Benefits

Mish

How many will lose their $600 unemployment checks and when?

How Many Set to Lose $600 Checks?

Guidelines

To determine a better number, let's review the Department of Labor Guidelines.

Programs which entitle an individual to receive FPUC. This program provides an  additional $600 per week to individuals who are collecting regular UC (including Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) and Unemployment Compensation for Ex-Servicemembers (UCX)), as well as the following unemployment compensation programs: 

  • Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC)
  • Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)
  • Extended Benefits (EB)
  • Short-Time Compensation (STC)
  • Trade Readjustment Allowances (TRA)
  • Disaster Unemployment Assistance (DUA)
  • Payments under the Self-Employment Assistance (SEA) program  

Persons Claiming Benefits in All Programs

Persons Claiming UI Benefits in All Programs July 23 Report

Based on all the above table (which lags state claims by 2 weeks), over 30 million have federal unemployment benefits that are about to expire.

My lead chart uses that data. Continued state claims (Regular State in the above table) are a subset. 

Continued State Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 July 23 Report

The above chart is seasonally adjusted. The All Continued claims table and my lead chart are not seasonally adjusted.

Double Counting? 

Earlier today I fielded a question regarding double counting. The New York Times made the same claim in How many are collecting unemployment benefits? It’s hard to say.

The Labor Department says that as of late June — the most recent period measured — an additional 14 million people were tapping into Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program to aid freelancers, the self-employed and others ordinarily ineligible for state jobless benefits. But those numbers have been plagued by double-counting and other issues, and most economists think the true number is probably lower.

New York Times Confuses Two Issues

  1. How many are getting unemployment checks 
  2. How many are actually unemployed

Everyone in any unemployment program gets a weekly check of $600. 

Confusion stems from the fact that not everyone collecting unemployment benefits is unemployed. But there is no double counting.

PUA FAQ

Let's dive into the PUA FAQ for details.

You may qualify for PUA benefits if you are unemployed, partially unemployed, unable to work, or unavailable to work due to a COVID-19-related reason and you meet one of the following:

  • You are a business owner, self-employed worker, independent contractor, or gig worker and are not participating in the UI Elective Coverage program. You will be able to indicate if you have no employment wages (for example, you did not receive a W-2), to apply for the PUA program (which cannot be used for any other purpose). However, you can file a regular Unemployment Insurance (UI) claim if you believe you were misclassified and have wages from an employer.
  • You don’t have sufficient work history. This generally means you don’t have enough wages reported as an employee during the last 18 months for a regular UI claim. This could be the case if you are self-employed or an independent contractor, or if you are an employee with insufficient earnings. To qualify for PUA based on insufficient work history, you must have been recently employed, which could be satisfied if you had an offer to start working on a specific date but were unable to start due to a COVID-19-related reason.

If you qualify for unemployment at the state level, you file at the state level. There is no way around it. 

People "partially unemployed" as well as other individuals who do not qualify for state programs can apply for PUA. 

That does not double count anything but it does overestimate the "official" unemployment rate. 

Total Number of Unemployed

The total number of unemployed is somewhere between the state number (17.3 million) and the all claims number (31.8 million).

Recall that if you work as few as 1 hour, you are considered "employed". 

As a practical matter, the official unemployment rate is dramatically understated.

White House, Senate GOP Weigh Interim Unemployment Aid Extension

Bloomberg reports White House, Senate GOP Weigh Interim Unemployment Aid Extension.

Trump administration officials and Senate Republicans are discussing a short-term extension of unemployment insurance as lawmakers and the White House appear unlikely to reach a broader stimulus deal before the benefits lapse.

Some Republican aides on Capitol Hill cast doubt on its chances of succeeding. Several Republicans didn’t support the original $600-a-week unemployment insurance provided under the Cares Act. And any extension would require votes from Democrats, who want the entire program renewed. The payments expire at the end of July.

Most of us agree that there needs to be something in its place, and most of us also agree that the $600 flat amount for every worker is not a good idea going forward because it’s a disincentive to get back to work,” Portman said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday. 

Not all Senate Republicans are aware of discussions of a side deal to avoid a lapse in unemployment insurance. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said he hadn’t heard of the idea but would consider it if there is no stimulus deal by the first week of August.

Expiring Benefit Notes

If not extended, this will be a big hit to the incomes of millions.

Republicans, especially Trump, do not want to extend the $600 benefit because many make more being unemployed than they did working. 

This is what the bickering is all about.

Calendar Quirk

The last full week in July ends Saturday July 25 for most state UI programs. And that is when the benefits expire, not July 31.

Rubio proposes taking up the lapse in insurance "by the first week in August." 

That would be too late.

Unemployment Claims Rise for the First Time in 4 Months

Initial claims rose from 1.307 million to 1.416 million, an increase of 109,000. This was the first rise in 16 weeks.

It's also a signal that the jobs recovery may be over due to states backtracking on opening up.

For details and further discussion, please see Unemployment Claims Rise for the First Time in 4 Months

Mish

Comments (67)
No. 1-21
njbr
njbr

VVVVVV

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

I know a family desperately dependent on the $600. Husband lost job and wife’s part time job + gov money keeping them fed. Family (3 kids) hasnt paid rent last two months. I asked what the plan was once the gov money ran out and the answer was, “We dont know.”

Multiply scenario x 20m or 30m and it should scare the hell out of you.

Zardoz
Zardoz

The asteroid is about to enter the atmosphere...

jeffpogo
jeffpogo

It will be extended indefinitely! It is only money and helps the stock market! /s But ... why pay people more then they made working?

tokidoki
tokidoki

I support giving people money to live, but people getting more than what they would normally get is also an insult to people who got paycuts, etc.

Also seems like people are electing to not pay rent and still spend on clothes, etc. WTF. If they are not paying rent, they should be saving the money for rainy days ahead.

Soft_coding
Soft_coding

Maybe I’m a minority, which is why this is always ignored, but I lost my job and get the $600 and it’s still less than my prior paycheck. It’s even less than 70% than my paycheck. Of course, I’m a saver. I don’t need more
But now they will give me more and give poor people less.

KansasDog
KansasDog

Isnt 30 million people at 600 equate to 18 billion per week? Asides the suffering, what will happen when nearly 100billion a month is yanked away? Do they really think this joke economy is going to stand up to that? Steve munchass went one step further than the already disastrous idea they had yesterday of drawing down the 600 to 100 and announced today the boost would amount to 70% of your previous wage. This is a complete affront and play on words. For someone making 500 per week at the job and 300 unemployment benefits you would get around 30 per week. lol!! Some people may acutally fall into the negative does that mean they have to pay the govt? I cant imagine whats going to happen to millions of people. We're going down in flames.

AbeFroman
AbeFroman

I’m really worried how this is going to shake out. This can be a great country that offers a very high standard of living and a lot of professional opportunities (usually). But it also has problems - the corrupt and warped minds that run things, the gross inequality, and the consequent anger that has been building for years (all over the country).

I’ll just say it - I think there would be a lot less anger/violence/fear here if people didn’t wake up every day with the knowledge that if you don’t earn, you die. Not immediately, there are programs, but ultimately your lack of funds will kill you.

Lance Manly
Lance Manly

Paying people more on unemployment is a bad idea. Printing money just to prop up the stock market is a very bad idea. They should fix that first.

Rogue_Onesie
Rogue_Onesie

I am self-employed and collecting the FED PUA 600 + 125 weekly. I am grateful for it. But I am also an animal. What does that mean ?

Animals only take what they need. When they gorge it's usually because they might not find food again for a while. So, I don't buy shiite i don't need and am content with the food and shelter I have.

But if many Americans were like me, this would be a problem for the American economy, which is built on selling us shiite we don't need. What % of the American economy is based on "stuff" you don't really need ?

On the other hand, If you're fat, insecure, ignorant, narcissistic enough to bling out your instagram lifestyle ... don't come rolling up to me for Chipotle Guacamole money fatty. Im not going to facilitate your risky spending habits.

Our industrialized production methods creating havoc with ecosystems will create more viruses. This Pandemic will permanently alter people's spending habits and reset budget thermostats ... being "miserly" or efficient will become more acceptable if not necessary.

megaculpa
megaculpa

Yikes. If people are rioting now, wait till they lose their federal supplement.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I know a guy who made 80k this month working 5 jobs as a programmer. Hes not counted as employed 5 times. This is the strangest economy ever.

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk

Mish, I know it seems hard to believe, but my understanding is it is $600 per week extra plus state benefits.
"All unemployed workers to receive an extra $600 a week for up to six months"

Mish
Mish

Editor

corrected - I said $600 a week in one spot and month in another.
Week is correct
This is a far bigger deal than I thought.

Jojo
Jojo

In Picking Up Work Here and There, Many Miss Out on Unemployment Check
For millions of people, making a living is a cobbled-together proposition. That leaves a hole in the safety net when things turn bad.
July 23, 2020

CA2020
CA2020

$72,000,000,000 coming out of the economy every 28 days. That is about 3.5% of gdp. It is going to be ugly.

tokidoki
tokidoki

32 million sheeps don't amount to anything.

tokidoki
tokidoki

21 thousand jobs lost at Schlumberger.

Cocoa
Cocoa

We are all in this together, unless you are an elected politician. They get paid regardless. A comet could hit and some lonely computer will write Pelosi and McConnell a paycheck. So we all have to suck it up and go down the drain when these government class people make their Hodge lodge mandates and come up with non -solutions like this measly$600. In the Bay area that gets vaporized on contact. I heard in Germany they gave a drummer 10k euros for staying at home and losing his income in his band. The USA? Here is some beer.money. The standard payment of $500 is a fucking insult for anyone who bothered to subscribe to the system.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

You have to love this Republican government.....

Over 30,000,000 unemployed, unemployment benefits ending, and the Senate majority leader says it could weeks to pass the next stimulus package. What the hell!!!

We have been living with this virus since February, we know testing is the key to getting it under control (despite what our clueless president believes) and we are still living with testing shortages. What the hell!!!!

This has to be the most incompetent elected US government ever. Much like Nero fiddling while Rome burned. How anyone can defend the Republicans response to this Covid outbreak is beyond me. Must be some mighty powerful Kool Aid!!!!!

Montana33
Montana33

Once hospitals across many States are blown out there will be no option but to fully shut down again in those States. Unemployment will skyrocket. We are maybe 8 To 10 weeks away. This is so obvious in the data. Some States are fine but many large ones will bring us down. I marvel at the persistent deniers of this inevitable outcome.


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