Over 26 Million Unemployment Claims Filed in Just 5 Weeks

Mish

In the last 5 weeks, 26.453 million people filed unemployment claims.

End of First Wave

Via Email, Challenger and Gray issued these statements.

"We are reaching the end of the first wave of layoffs. All the Americans immediately impacted by the shutdowns have been navigating the unemployment insurance system over the last five weeks. Now, we'll see a lull before the next big wave of corporate layoffs hits," said Andrew Challenger, SVP of global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

"A vicious cycle of falling employment begetting falling consumer spending has begun. The longer we stay quarantined, the higher the next spike in job loss will be. It's a morbid race between flattening the COVID curve and capping the unemployment curve," said Challenger. 

The end of the first wave seems accurate, but perhaps a week early. I expect another 2 million or so to file next week. 

For now it's been furloughs. If business does not pick up to pre-crisis levels (and it won't), the result will be permanent layoffs. Some things have changed forever.

Forever Changed

  • More teleconferencing and fewer corporate lunches
  • Less air travel, hotels, and car rentals at the personal and business level
  • More work at home
  • More do-it-yourself haircuts, nails, lawns, etc.
  • Fewer car purchases
  • Fewer home purchases 
  • Accelerated online shopping and more mall closures

What's Next?

On March 23, I wrote Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

I noted 20 "What's Next?" things.

Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis

The Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis. Do not expect a V-shaped recovery. 

The knock on impacts of all of those means more bankruptcies and less employment..

Mish

Comments (39)
No. 1-16
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

"Now, we'll see a lull before the next big wave of corporate layoffs hits,"

...

Aka the better pay / benefit jobs. Should do wonders for demand.

Sounds inflationary

dbannist
dbannist

I'm guessing the official unemployment rate is around 22% based on this data.

That does not include self-employed persons, nor does it include reduced hours.

I personally prefer income tax revenue to determine the unemployment rate in terms of hours worked. One person working 40 hours with another unemployed is the same thing as 2 people working 20 hours, only the second example counts as "0" people unemployed.

It's not exact, but tax revenue smooths out unemployment numbers and paints a more accurate picture.

Gumtoo
Gumtoo

Mish, V - shaped recovery...fuggettaboutit! There won't be a U - shaped one either. Check out this https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339436-impossible-road-to-herd-immunity?utm_source=smartnews.com&utm_medium=referral
Without a cure or vaccine there will be no recovery.

psalm876
psalm876

I see a bright future in agriculture robotics.

JimmyInMinny
JimmyInMinny

"Sounds inflationary"--- to me, it sounds like quite deflationary.

tokidoki
tokidoki

So Dow 500K?

wootendw
wootendw

The corona virus is great for politicians and central banks as it gives them an excuse for what was already coming.

numike
numike

and the stock market is up!! woohoo!! scratches head

DBG8489
DBG8489

As ZH noted this morning:

"So far we have lost 545 jobs for each CV death in the US. "

Yes that will change over time depending on the rise in the number of deaths and/or jobs lost - however at what point is it okay? Is it 20 jobs per death? 200:1? 1:1? What is the acceptable ratio?

Furthermore, that doesn't include all those who have lost other things in the lockdown...

How many have lost or will lose their business? How many have lost or will lose their home, their car, their family? How many individuals will have to declare bankruptcy? How many may die sooner because of an undiagnosed cancer or some other disease because they couldn't keep their appointments for testing? How many will succumb to depression and take their own lives - or someone else's? How many will suffer untold losses, die, or be sick or injured in the future due to the unintended consequences of continued lockdown?

Don't get me wrong - I believe the virus is real. It is not a hoax. And as I said before, I was a "bend the curve" guy about six weeks ago. However, the rhetorical questions above are meant to point out just a few of the (probably hundreds or thousands of) unseen things that I don't believe were considered when the decisions were made. Yet the reality is that these things are just as real as the virus to the people who are - or will be - affected.

And I believe that because we cannot possibly know all of these things, our most prudent course of action should have been (and still should be) for government to warn and recommend, then get out of the way and let people decide for themselves.

Those who want to lock down should be free to do so and those wishing to go about their lives should be free to do so as well.

numike
numike

Those who want to lock down should be free to do so and those wishing to go about their lives should be free to do so as well. According to Mish if you test positive and are coughing sweating with high fever and have shortness of breath you should not have the freedom to spread the virus as you please

sangell
sangell

Deaths per million in New York have reached 1060. That's more one death per 1000 people. Probably a lot higher than that in NYC.

Jeff Dog
Jeff Dog

Claims dropped 3.5 million in one week. You could spin that as the greatest economic surge in history.

Jojo
Jojo

Ha ha ha. Just knew this was going to happen!

Apr 22, 2020
Another Small Business Headache: Some Employees Are Asking To Be Laid Off Thanks To Higher Unemployment Benefits
Sarah Hansen

Bitter Taste For Coffee Shop Owner, As New $600 Jobless Benefit Drove Her To Close
April 21, 2020

magoomba
magoomba

26.5 million?? And to think, I never believed that many folks even had viable jobs. Remember, they are all nonessential too!

Herkie
Herkie

I am not sure how this impacts the numbers posted. Florida has the wrost record for processing unemployment claims with 86% of them not processed. I went to a furniture store today and the sales person told me she has relatives that were laid off in early March who still have not gotten a check. Or even proof the state has processed their claim. Needless to say you cannot get through if you try to find out.

There is a lot of stuff that simply is not going according to law.

I bought a house April 6 in Florida, my insurance company wanted to know when I changed my address if I intended to register my car here within 30 days. I intend to yes, but the DMV is only doing simple things like renewals over the phone, new residents and complicated cases can't be done over the phone. I am a 100% disabled vet with free permanent registration but I have to present proof in person in the DMV, I cannot. The lady said she thought the police would be understanding under the circumstances. Oh fine, I am sure that carries the weight of law.

The other night I checked the status of an Amazon order, I saw that within a few hours two new orders were placed on my cards at my Amazon account. Some guy with a small dick (size 9 shoes) ordered expensive sneakers to be delivered to a house in Menifee California. And another order to be delivered to a place in Deland FL for 2 dozen pairs of socks. (some people do not know socks can be washed I guess)

Try getting through to Amazon or your bank to contest such charges. One was on a credit card the other on my debit card.

Take my advice and go to any website you have an account and delet stored card information as well as your address, change your password tonight. Because getting a problem fixed is next to impossible. Make it the next thing you do. I never had a problem till this week. Suddenly I have accounts being drained and no way to stop it.

Dubronik
Dubronik

I am gonna miss the suburban juicy mamas walking around the malls :)


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