Over 1 Out of Every 1000 People in NY and NJ Die From Covid-19

Mish

New Jersey joined New York today in the dubious distinction of coronavirus deaths rates of over 1 in 1,000 people.

As states start opening up here are some charts to consider.

New Covid-19 Deaths US States 

New Covid-19 Deaths US States 2020-05-09

The above chart is not population adjusted. 

I made the chart as a spot check to see if new deaths were generally in line with the lead chart. 

There are some new states, notably Texas and Florida, but they are not in the front of the pack, and the day-to-day totals are very noisy.

Changes in Deaths Per Million by Country

Changes in Deaths Per Million by Country

Three Obvious Standouts

  1. Singapore
  2. South Korea
  3. Japan

What Do They Have in Common?

  1. Aggressive Early Testing
  2. Cooperative Society on Social Distancing Rules
  3. Contract Tracing

The deniers say social distancing does not work and cannot work especially in in high population density cities like New York City and Chicago. 

Let's test that thesis with a look population densities.

Population Densities 

Population Densities per Square Kilometer - Countries

  • Singapore: 8,337
  • South Korea: 515
  • Japan: 334
  • UK: 267
  • Italy: 206
  • China 144
  • Spain: 98
  • United States: 33
  • Sweden: 22

Population Densities per Square Kilometer - US Cities

  • New York City: 10,431
  • San Francisco: 6,659
  • Boston: 5.143
  • Chicago: 4,582
  • Philadelphia: 4,337
  • Miami: 4,324

Population Densities of Cities Japan

Tokyo, Japan: 6,158
Yokohama, Japan: 8,534 
Osaka, Japan: 5,200

Population Density of South Korea

South Korea is one of the planet’s most densely populated countries with a density of 503 people per square kilometer, or 1,302 people per square mile. Nearly 70% of South Korea's land area is mostly uninhabitable due to it being mountainous and the population is established in lowland areas, contributing to a density that is higher than average. In 1975, an estimate was made that South Korea's population density in its cities, each containing at least 50,000 people, was nearly 4,000 on average. As a result of the continued following of the practice to migrate to urban areas, the figure was much higher in the 1980s.

Seoul's population density was estimated around 17,000 average persons in 1988, an increase of over 3000 when compared with 1980's population density of nearly 14,000 people every square kilometer. The current density of Seoul is almost twice that of New York City. The density of Busan, the second largest city in the country, was just over 8,500 persons for every square kilometer in 1988, while this figure stood at a little over 7,000 people back in 1980.

Population Density of Singapore

With a population of around 5.7 million people in 2019 and a land area of approximately 720 square kilometers, Singapore was the second most densely populated country in the world, after Monaco. 

High Population Density Does Not Necessitate High Covid-19 Deaths

That is the bottom line.

Of course, there is a tradeoff. 

Singapore , South Korea, and Japan all did three things that  the US did not do and many in the US still do not want to do.

  1. Aggressive Early Testing
  2. Cooperative Society on Social Distancing Rules
  3. Contact Tracing

1: The US did not do aggressive early testing and it's too late for that now. 

2: The US was late in social distancing and some want to fight it

3: The US did not do contact tracing and may still view that as violation of personal privacy.

Too Late for Early Testing, But Not Overall Testing 

Most do want aggressive testing, but despite Trump's claims, the US is not where we need to be. 

However, the number of tests is finally ramping up. 

Coupled with spotty social distancing (compared to other countries) Is that enough? 

I don't know, but we are about to find out.

Want To Be More Like Sweden?

For further discussion, please see Want To Be More Like Sweden? What If We Already Are?

Was it Worth It?

I will not address that question because I will not change anyone's mind.

Importantly, it's impossible to know what would have happened if the US had not undergone these lockdowns.

But we do know that deaths are way underreported and the US is only as good as it is because of the lockdowns.

Was it worth it? The debate is on.

Mish

Comments (155)
No. 1-40
Scooot
Scooot

Good info Mish. There’s a typo, No.3 Contract Tracing should be Contact

UK are supposedly going to ramp up contact tracing soon.

Jojo
Jojo

What does testing accomplish if someone is not exhibiting CV19 possible symptoms? If you test clear at one point, why couldn't you pick up CV19 10 minutes later? Are you supposed to get tested daily?

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

South Korea may be about to lose control again. Worse case happened for them. Gay nightclub super spreader event. Being gay is still very taboo there. The contact tracing will be tough. I wish them the best.

I have just about quit talking about this to the nay sayers in my circle. I just stay away from them and wait. They just opened churches back up and our daily growth has been increasing for the last 3 weeks. Hope is not a strategy.

2,000,000 dead is a lowball estimate. The number of permanently maimed will be in the 10s of millions.

Prepare for a second much less stable shutdown.

psalm876
psalm876

You correctly identified three of the four significant differences in Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. The one you missed was the wearing of face masks in public.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

"The deniers say social distancing does not work and cannot work especially in in high population density cities like New York City and Chicago. "

Maybe some say that, but the biggest objection flying around these days that I am seeing is that the cure (lock-downs, which is social distancing cubed and therefore not the same thing) is worse than the disease (which is real and nasty but not virulent enough to justify tanking the entire economy and possibly damaging lives for years to come).

So you are offering up a bit of a straw man.

Sechel
Sechel

a few states are moving to contact tracing and more aggressive testing, most are not. the whiltehouse has now adopted early testing in the most aggressive way everyone gets tested daily and wears a mask. clearly someone thinks it works.

not to be a cynic but when deaths and infection rates spike upwards in states like georgia its a guarantee the administration will claim scapegoats and not recognize there was no strategy

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I also read humidity is a factor in the virus surviving minutes in high humidity vs hours in lower humidity. Please note all 3 nations are islands with higher humidity in warmer months.

JanNL
JanNL

There are only 2 stable outcomes: root it out, R=0, or let it go like wildfire, R>>1.
Root it out: requires a very major concerted effort for 5 weeks or so, subsequently everyone coming in must prove clean (quarantine and testing).
Let go like wildfire: lots of deaths and sequelae, takes a long time because people scared, probably herd immunity in the end.
US and most of Europe seem to tend to the unstable middle, R=1 with ups and downs. Probably takes a very long time with possibly herd immunity in the end.
New Zealand is an example of a country that goes for rooting out.

JanNL
JanNL

The infection is propagated by mouth emissions and by mouth emissions only. The notion that mouth coverings do not work to decrease propagation is ludicrous.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

Most of the best performing countries eat more seafood.

Blurtman
Blurtman

What we know about those who died of coronavirus in NJ: Underlying illnesses, race, age

Here's what we know and what we don't about the deceased so far:

From the fatality data available, 58% were male and 42% were female, and ranged in age from 20 to 103 years old.

Most of those deceased, or 78%, were 65 and older. Of the data New Jersey collected:

Only 1% of those who died were under 30 years old.
4%, were 30-49 years old.
17%, were 50-64 years old.
33%, were 65-79 years old.
45%, were 80 years old or older.

The leading underlying illness was cardiovascular disease, which was found in 29% of known cases. About 15% had other chronic diseases.
Next is diabetes, in 17% of known cases, followed by 10% of known cases with chronic lung disease.
About 7% of cases had chronic renal disease, 7% neurological disorders, and 6% had cancer.

JonSellers
JonSellers

The Fed's ought to mandate all companies provide paid sick leave for the duration, as well as making sick employees stay home. It would be nice to see the Fed subsidize the delivery of necessary supplies to those mandated to stay at home and don't have anyone to shop for them.

States should mandate mask wearing in public in high population density areas: big city downtowns, stores, factories and offices. Couple that with decent sanitation procedures and open up. It's not rocket science. But we're to goddamn stupid to even get that right.

Bermudaman
Bermudaman

Mish, I've been following you for 10+ years, thanks for the amazing insights.
I have lived in Thailand for 15 years, and am now amazed at how Thailand gets no recognition for how they have controlled the covid situation.
Cases? 50 per milloon
Deaths? 1 per million
Way better than almost any other comparable country, except Taiwan.

Heran
Heran

No, Japan did not do much testing. See here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-tests-per-thousand-since-100th-case?country=JPN. And there is strong evidence that population density is a key factor. See the UK data: https://twitter.com/excel_wang/status/1254535818804449282; and US data: https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/. International comparison is always difficult since there are many other confounding factors (including data quality), but within the same country where the socio-demographic and public health policies are similar the relationship between pop density and covid19 is quite clear as above.

The Hood
The Hood

One in every 1000? This looks like a selective assembly of data to pitch a thesis that results in a false narrative. The closest this data comes to the truth is in the third and final chart where all Northern European countries including the USA and Canada are all about equal with SWEDEN, which aside from being a socialist nightmare has achieved parity with every lockdown nation while it has remained OPEN!!!
This puts all the rest of your arguments out of commission Mish. The truth remains that those most at risk are older people with underlying issues, fat people and Afro-American's and quite possibly New World indigenous folks. The obvious reality is Covid 19 is a designer disease to target the least productive of our societies. Sounds like Eugenics to me. But how could that ever happen unless people like Bill Gates and our known Criminal Swampers here in America were putting money into the Wuhan bio-weapons lab. What that you say? They did via Bill Gates and Dr Fredo Fauci? I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. But I know what to do with that,... blame it on Trump, just like everything else... It's always Trump's fault, isn't it? That's the endless mindless narrative, isn't it? Right!

ClydeThe Raven
ClydeThe Raven

the shutdown of the country was NOT worth whatever lives were allegedly saved. And were going to find that out when many of the businesses shut down never reopen.

shamrock
shamrock

Since it's no more deadly than a flu (1 in 1,000 infections), the good news is over 100% of the population of NY and NJ have already had the covid-19 virus. It's over.

Jdog1
Jdog1

Sweden's death rate is higher than the US and much, much higher than its neighbors, you can keep repeating a false narrative all day long, but it does not make it true..

Jdog1
Jdog1

It is a lot more deadly than the flu. Anyone who says it is not, does not know what they are talking about...

cienfuegos
cienfuegos

Government should protect US from EVERYTHING.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Throwing around numbers like "2 milllion dead" or "over 1 out of every 1000 people die" is very misleading - if not disingenuous - if we aren't also told their ages and co-morbidities (which we are not). Were we expecting these people to live forever? Or perhaps more likely, they died a few months sooner than they would have anyway.

jivefive99
jivefive99

More to the point. The corona kill rate is 6%. Used to be 2% .. now its 6%. 1 in 17 people who get the virus will die.

numike
numike

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown.
As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I’ve said before, if you don’t solve the biology, the economy won’t recover. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

njbr
njbr

‘I’m not saying we won’t get our hair mussed, but I am saying no more than 2-3 million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks,’ so says advisor to the President, General "Buck" Turgidson

....During McEnany’s press briefing Friday, Associated Press reporter Zeke Miller asked about the coronavirus cases that had infiltrated the White House, which for weeks has implemented temperature checks and virus testing for those close to the president.

“Why should the average American, whose workplace doesn’t have access to these rapid tests, feel comfortable going to work if the White House isn’t even safe?” Miller asked.

“As America reopens safely, the White House is continuing to operate safely,” McEnany said.

thimk
thimk

This isn't the worlds first pandemic rodeo. I think we have lost our ability to apply common sense, well established prevention tools and generalize .

Webej
Webej

!4. Wear masks in public

John Biddle
John Biddle

Another thing the three top performers (Singapore, South Korea and Japan) have in common is that they have a lot of fish in their diet. This would tend to keep their vitamin D well above deficient status. Low vitamin D has been shown to correlate well with Covid death, and normal vitamin D levels (in the blood) correlates well with minor symptoms for those infected.

ToInfinityandBeyond
ToInfinityandBeyond

I have it on very good authority that COVID-19 is a hoax!!!!

Stimpson
Stimpson

Nothing a modest bleach injection won’t solve.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Miracles only happen in the United States. Full stop.

Jackula
Jackula

It's poetic justice this beast is loose in the White House. Maybe some of our leadership will actually lose some of their arrogance and hubris and start wearing masks. Good leadership leads by example.

rafterman
rafterman

Wouldn't a better headline and story be " Excluding NY and NJ, the other more than 90% of the US population only has .14 people per 1000 dying from Covid-19"

More doom porn from Mish.

awc13
awc13

the House democrats will save us with their stimulus plan of 2k a month per person, 4k for married couples plus 500 per month for each child for up to 3 kids. add it up, that is 5500 per month for a family of 5, just to stay home.

pretty sweet! what could go wrong with that?

TRM1361
TRM1361

So I’m trying to get my head wrapped around these various claims. One approach that might help is to see if there is any "excess deaths".

One of the problems is “excess compared to which year?”. The 2017-18 flu season was a big one and this is the most recent info I can find so it covers the 2017 part: (sorry in advance if the formatting isn’t right)

Stats of the State of New York
Stats of the State of New York

  • Rankings are from highest to lowest. ** Rates for the U.S. include the District of Columbia and (for births) U.S. territories. Refer to notes in publication tables for more detail. *** Death rates are age-adjusted. Refer to source notes below for more detail. **** State estimate is unavailable. † Excludes data for California, Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, and New Mexico. †† Estimates are presented for fewer than 50 states and the District of Columbia due to considerations of sample size and precision. n/a – Data not available.

Causes of Death, 2017 Deaths
———————— ——–

Heart Disease 44,092
Cancer 34,956
Accidents 7,687
Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 7,258
Stroke 6,264
Flu/Pneumonia 4,517
Diabetes 4,176
Alzheimer’s disease 3,521
Hypertension 2,699
Septicemia 2,296
Drug Overdose Deaths 3,921 (listed separately under “mortality”)
So about 120,000 for 2017. We are 4 months into 2020 and I would expect about 1/3rd (40,000). The site only shows 2014-17. All 4 years show about 120,000.

Do you know of any site with 2020 statistics year to date?
Thanks

WildBull
WildBull

The real question here is what is the end game? Living in a police state while we wait for the miracle cure does not seem practical in the long run. Even when, or if, there is a vaccine, I won't get it for a year or so after mass inoculation begins. Something rushed to market this fast may present bigger problems than the 2 or 3% chance I have of dying of CV. I'm in a higher risk age group. On the other hand, my risk of death from other causes in the next 2 years is about 3.5%. I only have so many years left and lockdown is wasting my time at the good end.

How long can economic activity be shut down without a major economic collapse that can't be papered over with new money? I see a lot of schadenfreude here, with too many people happily ready to yell "I told you so!" when the whole thing goes to shit. Frankly, I'm getting ready to retire, and would not like my life's savings wiped away in a credit collapse. It sucks to get old, but is sucks much worse to be old and poor.

Further, I have young grandchildren. They are only young once and I'm not waiting months or years to see them. I am no great risk to them, though they present some risk to me. I refuse to hide in my house like a scared little bunny afraid of the big bad covid. When I look at the risk of missing a couple years of their lives as opposed to a few percent chance of CV death, there is no question in my mind.

I don't think CV is stoppable in any case. So, if we keep the medical system from being overloaded we will get to the end of the pandemic with minimum deaths. But, keeping the clamps on hard and chasing people around with contact tracing with no guarantee of an end is just economic and social suicide. CV is a bad disease, and people are going to die. Not our fault. Ruining the survivors' lives because of guilt about it won't make it any better. But it will make everything else a whole lot worse.

Mike6712
Mike6712

Hold off on that stat until the antibody tests of a large segment of the pop. have been conducted and publshed .

Linda101
Linda101

Why do you not mention Taiwan?
Taiwan has the best effort so far the other three doesn’t even come close
Japanese media are praising Taiwan
Everyday
They sent every single case to negative isolation chamber from day one
They started mask factories so everyone has masks
They use contact tracing
If you cannot be safely isolated at home government will send you to subsidize accommodations
They rescued their people from Diamond princess with 1 doctor 3 nurses per passenger in a charter flight
If you are isolated at home you can get your meals delivered and trash taken out
So life was never interrupted during this pandemic
You can get haircuts go to the dentist everyone goes to school
Even baseball games now
And now they are sending masks to rescue the rest of the world

Herkie
Herkie

Interesting report from Axios: "More than one-in-five people in all five countries say that even after a vaccine is available, they will be less likely to travel by plane, use public transport and eat out at restaurants..."

If I were a sociologist I would be designing a study right now for funding that would track a sample of these people to be launched when a vaccine becomes available.

It seems to me that this may be the intention of about 20% of the population, but that they will not be able to maintain that position for long. Of course there are some people that are antivaxers and will just refuse to be protected, while others may feel that way they will eventually give in and get vaccinated because people who refuse to go back to normal are going to get left out not only socially but economically. There is only so much social distancing and avoiding one can do before they are simply written off by the larger society and shunned. For example at family reunions as certain releatives are left uninvited because they have refused to be vaccinated and parents will not allow their kids to be exposed to people who are intentionally potentially carrying the virus.

If I had to guess I would say you could predict a half life calculation to those that voluntarily remain in social distancing after the end of the threat. Of the 20% or slightly more that say they will still avoid social contact and flying or crowded places half will have given in within the first XYZ number of months, then in a similar time frame half the remaining avoiders will have dropped their opposition, etc.

I might even go on to state as a foundation of the study that the last 6-8% of the population out of the original 20+ would be vindicated but not for the reasons they remain unvaccinated. Once you get to below 10% with no vaccination immunity they will have herd immunity.

That would present a number of interesting sociological questions. And a ready to go study would provide far reaching answers that would demonstrate new information with a scope far beyond just Covid and social distancing. But on I would like to see considered is compulsary vaccination and real consequences for refusal. Herd immunity may be great at avoiding the type of pandemic we are now in, but, as long as there remains a pool of unvaccinated people the virus will continue to survive and eventually will roar back to life as a mutated version in which the majority once again has no immunity. As opposed to compulsary vaccinations which holds the promise of eradicating the disease entirely as we did with smallpox and nearly with polio.


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