Online Holiday Sales to Exceed In-Store Sales? Death of Malls?

Mish

Adobe Analytics says there were record online sales on TD and Black Friday. Will online exceed in-store sales this year?

Adobe Analytics reports record online sales for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday. It believes a cyber-monday record is on the way.

U.S. retailers raked in a record $7.9 billion in online sales on Black Friday and Thanksgiving, up 17.9 percent from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics, which measures transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers, on Saturday.

Adobe said Cyber Monday is expected to drive $6.6 billion in internet sales, which would make it the largest U.S. online shopping day in history.

Commerce marketing firm Criteo said 40 percent of Black Friday online purchases were made on mobile phones, up from 29 percent last year.

No brick-and-mortar sales data for Thanksgiving or Black Friday was immediately available, but Reuters reporters and industry analysts noted anecdotal signs of muted activity - fewer cars in mall parking lots, shoppers leaving stores without purchases in hand.

Online Sales vs Store Sales

Charles Lindsey, associate professor of marketing in the School of Management at the University of Buffalo predicts Online Sales to Surpass In-Store Sales for the first time ever this holiday season.

“To get the best deals, consumers can take advantage of a number of resources, such as apps like ShopSavvy, which allow them to scan an item’s barcode when shopping in a store and determine if another retailer is offering the same item for a lower price,” says Lindsey.

Death of Malls

Coupled with Amazon Prime, who needs malls?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-13
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

I went shopping at 5 PM. There was normal weekend traffic. There were no lines in the book or craft store. We were looking for decorations, and shopped at a store so we could gage how different bows and wreathes would look together.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Darn enter button.... Anyway, the line at the cash register was 1-deep. I do plan on buying a new computer display to increase my productivity. Buying at a store will allow me to inspect the box for damage, and return the display immediately if it doesn't work at home. ----------------------- I have purchased bike rims online 2 weeks ago. I could have gone to my local bike shop to have them order them for me, but I knew they were the right size and they had a very low probability of damage in transit.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Local resellers frequently do not stock what I want and their sales representatives are not often knowledgeable about their products. With the notable exception of some specialty stores, I cannot remember the last time a live salesperson provided helpful product information that I had not already researched online. Knowledgeable salespeople have all but disappeared. Virtual stores on the internet are the self-driving cars of retail.

There are times I call around to local shops looking for a particular product for immediate purchase and I am repeatedly told “We do not stock that item but we can order it for you.” The problem with that answer is I can often find better information about product availability, receive it sooner and get a better deal online. “Getting the best deal” is not the sole reason local retail is getting killed.

I am expecting a new business model where showrooms cover their costs by charging admission. They will specialize in items that are best examined in person before purchase (clothing, furniture, decor, etc.). The showrooms will have live demonstrations and might even be entertainment destinations. Perhaps they will rise from the ashes of dying malls. The items for sale will be purchased through the affiliated company websites and little in the showrooms will be stocked on location. They will be subsidiaries of E-tailers.

RobinBanks
RobinBanks

Same in the UK. Pound shops are doing well because there's no point in buying something on line that costs a quid. Th only other "shops" doing well in my town are charity shops and bookmakers.There are so many bordered up shops the window cleaner uses a sander. I'm not sorry to see the big sheds get a kicking when you consider how they treat their suppliers. I know a natural health manufacturer that tries to do as much of their sales online because the big sheds and retailers hammer them on margin. He just supplies them for marketing reasons only. With online sales they get their cash straight away rather than waiting 60 or 90 days for the chains to cough up.

Advancingtime
Advancingtime

As the holidays approach it seems Amazon has made it their company mission to be in our face. Not only that the company has made it their policy to know when you are sleeping, to know when you're awake, to know when you are bad or good through its ties with the CIA and NSA.

Recently Amazon seems to have increased the number of cross-company promotions that offer up Amazon Prime for free in an all gloves off effort to expand their customer base and weasel into the lives of those who have resisted its advances. The article below urges you to loudly just say NO!

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2017/11/to-amazon-loudly-just-say-no.html

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

@Advancingtime

I also have noticed Amazon has taken several malevolent turns in the last year or two. The “customer reviews” which I used to rely on have become heavily poisoned with what appear to be paid negative and positive entries designed to bury the helpful and honest entries. This year more than ever it appears all high ranking search engine results point to Amazon. It has become so bad that I have started using “-Amazon” as part of my search criteria and even then, it is noticeably more difficult to isolate good third party website results that used to be relatively easy to find. I have to wonder if there is a conflict of interest between AWS hosting third party sellers and also being part of Amazon. Then there are the developments of the Washington Post becoming an Amazon mouthpiece and Amazon expanding into the local grocery store business. To be fair, I notice Google and Facebook are also becoming heavy-handed. At some point regulators need to acknowledge the anti-trust problems with having a few giant data farms that have such a broad reach.

Regarding the “Just Say No!” campaign you reference, the article mentions the same campaign was tried during the Reagan years in an attempt to stop the expansion of illegal drug use within the United States. How well did that work out?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-leads-the-world-in-illegal-drug-use/

RonJ
RonJ

"Death of Malls?" Some malls maybe. Here in The Los Angeles area, we have some magnificent malls, such as The Americana in Glendale and The Grove, at Farmers Market, featured on the finale of Dancing With the Stars, as it is next door to CBS Television City. The Town Center mall in Burbank is currently being renovated and the Glendale Galleria was recently renovated, which is across the street from The Americana. Mall to mall competition. TV didn't kill going to the movies and big screen TV hasn't, either. Beautiful downtown Burbank used to be a joke on the Tonight Show, but the mall is the center piece of a now vibrant and busy shopping district.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

@RonJ

There is no question that many malls have been recently renovated in a major way. Financing is cheap and we are arguably near the top of another cycle. If any mall is going to make it, it is making it now. Notwithstanding that: “Retailers announced 5,300 store closings by June 20 – making 2017 the second-worst year on record at the mid-year point, according to CNN Money.” That quote is from this July, 2017 Forbes editorial:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/elyrazin/2017/07/13/mall-reits-too-risky-or-good-value-for-money/#7acc4b07632d

Regarding what you said about the movie industry, I am pretty certain it is not a good time to be in the exhibition business. “...The industry is facing challenges, something that only Disney’s executive vice president of theatrical distribution, Dave Hollis, really had the courage to acknowledge directly...‘This is disruption personified...’”

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/1/15150018/hollywood-movie-theaters-denial-virtual-reality-cinemacon-2017

Bardenio
Bardenio

Until the retail shopping experience changes, expect the trend to continue. Why doesn't Macy's scan your body for an exact fit profile, then a personal stylist help you move through an interactive store where you can digitally try on everything, add to the cart, and perfect fit clothing shows up in a day?

KidHorn
KidHorn

There were lines at many stores in Maryland and Virginia on thanksgiving. Mainly stores that sell electronics. I buy everything but household staples and food on-line. It's just way more convenient.

KidHorn
KidHorn

The WaPo is not a front for Amazon. They seem to intentionally avoid that. What they are is a mouthpiece for the federal government. Probably in exchange for contracts and/or favorable treatment.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

@KidHorn

What I intended to convey is that WaPo has become a way for Amazon to promote its political views and opinions. Some news outlets would like everyone to believe that ownership does not affect what they report, but I am not inclined to accept that. In every other line of work, if one goes around dissing the owner or hampering the owner’s agenda, one generally gets fired.

RonJ
RonJ

"Notwithstanding that: “Retailers announced 5,300 store closings by June 20" OK, but i have not seen a growing number of empty spaces in the local malls. Recessions have always caused empty spaces at the local malls, but they have remained in business. "I am pretty certain it is not a good time to be in the exhibition business." That is also a cyclical thing. There has always been competition from other media. Studios have hot and cold streaks.


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