One Hell of a Seasonal Adjustment: NAR's Existing Home Sales Math
The NAR reports Existing-Home Sales Falter 1.7% in June
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 1.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in June. Sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018).
Percent Sales by Price Range
Percent Changes From Year Ago by Price Range
The NAR's Supplemental Data provides a look at regional differences.
Down 10% on a 35.7% distribution overwhelms up 1.0% on a 39.4% contribution.
I calculate net weighted sales as -4.72% year-over-year based on the the NAR's Sales Distribution Percentages.
I bounced this off Calculated Risk who tells me there was a huge seasonal adjustment this year. To my way of thinking, seasonal adjustments should not affect year-over-year comparisons.
But it did, as presented.
It's one hell of a seasonal adjustment.
Explaining the Sales Decline
Mike "Mish" Shedlock