Number of US Cases Tops 1,000: 10,000 On the Way

Mish

Coronavirus cases in the US topped 1,000 tonight, with 31 total deaths.

Michigan Declares State of Emergency

Customs Officials at DC Airport Test Positive

Washington State Bans Gatherings

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Declares a State of Emergency

1000 Reached

10,000 When?

Bianco - 10,000 When?

25,000 When?

Bianco - 25,000 When?

If the current path continues there may be 25,000 cases in 10 days.

Those are not predictions that I am aware of. Rather they are the path we are on.

Given that the US is just now starting testing due to CDC incompetence, we may be behind the curve.

Mish Note: Tweets are Not Rendering

I have 7 Tweets in this post.

The most critical are the last two from Jim Bianco. I added hard links.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (81)
No. 1-29
Tengen
Tengen

Have been seeing a lot of angst from people who are sick of this virus story and want everything to go back to normal. Unfortunately for them, that's not going to happen anytime soon. We're up to 119 countries and territories with at least one case.

Nikkei is down a few hundred points again. Not looking so hot for tomorrow, but probably not a total bloodbath either.

Mish
Mish

Editor

7 Tweets not showing for Me. Anyone seeing them tonight?

Had this problem before?

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

My forecast is coronavirus will get stronger as we get into the summer. It will peak sometime in July and start waning by August and September. It is going to be a long year for many and nearly everyone is going to know someone that dies from Covid-19. A virologist on XM Sirius channel 121 said it is possible the virus gets stronger as we get warmer weather and mutates into something worse. I would be shocked if we get less deaths from this in the US then deaths on 9/11. My forecast is high 5 figures or 6 figures.

dodo
dodo

Italy hasn't closed its borders, yet French and German cv numbers and especially number of deaths are only a fraction. UK numbers are not believable either. Hypocrisy is not a european trait.

NewUlm
NewUlm

Demographic data is lacking (beyond the worldometer study)... here is what I could find

  • Italy,The average age of a CIV-19 death in Italy has been 81 years old
  • Italy, Only one in five coronavirus patients is between 19 and 50 years old (that does not mean that under 50 are not getting sick, they likely are at the same rate - just recovering at home and not going to hospital)
  • and South Korea, which conduced more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider.

So will this be bad? yes if you are 65+, have a medical condition, live “hard” or are one of the unlucky heathy folks that catches a bad case. But most, especially kids will be ok... so let’s do our part to keep infection rates down (I have a parent in the highest risk group). And I live in Seattle.

Greggg
Greggg

Tower: "WallStreet flight 1539, you are cleared for emergency landing on 22L".
Wall Street Flight 1539: "We can't do it... We're going to be in the Hudson".

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

"we may be behind the curve."
Quite an optimistic (or PC) way to put it.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Tweets just started working

Optimist
Optimist

Yesterday India had festival of Holi where people apply colors to other's faces. This should have spread Covid virus to almost 700 million people. Wait for next few days for untreated or maltreated patients dying on the roads.

sangell
sangell

My pharmacy texted me a week ago that a Rx was time to be refilled. I said yes, refill it. Got a computer call Monday saying my Rx had been ordered. Went to pick it up yesterday and the pharmacist said it had not arrived from Winn Dixies warehouse.

I may not have to wait for the coronavirus to kill me. The pharma China based supply chain may kill me first. Can my estate sue the company that relied on Chinese suppliers. If I could find the CEO who outsourced the supply I'd take care of him first but I'd be too sick to track him down

Carl_R
Carl_R

Bianco's projections are a bit faster than mine, since I expect the rate to slow as people become aware that each person needs to take action to prevent the spread. My projection is 37,500 cases by the end of the month, and 1,000 dead. Still low compared to the flu, which had a year head start, but I expect we will stop hearing that argument by the middle of next month.

KidHorn
KidHorn

I spent yesterday in a hospital waiting area. A modern open design which is analogous to waiting in an airport terminal. Went to the cafeteria at 12:30. So crowded, there was no place to sit.

It was nice knowing everyone.

MiTurn
MiTurn

This might be a redundant post, but Spain, Belgium, and France (and probably Germany) are about 9 days behind Italy's number of cases, the US about 16 days. I'm supposed to go to a trivia night at a local pizza & beer joint Thursday. I think I'll skip it...just because.

JohnB99
JohnB99

Zero hedge has a good story, pointing out the incompetence of this administration.

I give props to Pence acting like a pro, now, at the press conferences. But why are the hard decisions NOT being made?

ohno
ohno

Soon Trump will make the ultimate announcement:

"The virus has been contained between the East and West coast".

I have retarded inlaws that claimed they were moving to Washington. I told them a month ago about this and got "here we go again". They just sold their house last week and as of today are still planning on going there. You idiots wont be staying with me! re

And truthfully, the whole country is going get locked down just like Italy as since the stock market is all that matters and hard choices are delayed to keep this crap of a system afloat.

I still have people telling me im over reacting for buying canned goods and crap loads of pet food. Also, might be better to just stay home if you get sick, not that you have a choice with full hospitals and football stadiums full of people, because what will happen to your pets? Asides them getting sick too i'm sure the authorties will just shoot them and put them in the portable incinerator.

I'm not screwing around.

ohno
ohno

Also, i'm still laughing people quoting chinese numbers! We're about to find out how full of bs they are! I suspect will have not short of totalitarian rule when the idiots in charge of this insane asylum finally realize how serious this is.

ohno
ohno

I'm hearing some of our ports are at standstill. I strongly suggest stocking up NOW and forget everything you hear from the govt because pandemonium is on the way.

shamrock
shamrock

Italy's death rate is 6% while Germany is a flu like .1%?

DavidZelenka
DavidZelenka

Just yesterday, John Hopkins changed how their data source was structured, so if you copied this spreadsheet, you'll need to update it.

Also, keep in mind that they added all the states, so for the next 12 hours or so, it will look like, say, WA added hundreds of new cases. This will resolve, once the new data updates. This sheet updates automatically at around 5pm PDT.

Also, if you're curious, here's a chart, if the US follows Italy's unpreparedness:

numike
numike

From 3blue1brown’s Grant Sanderson, this is an excellent quick explanation of exponential growth and how we should think about it in relation to epidemics like COVID-19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=emb_logo

Iowan
Iowan

Before we start jumping to conclusions, what are the ratio of infections that are community made versus from people traveling? It makes a HUGE difference. For example, Iowa went from 2 to 13 cases in about a week, but that's because 12 of them are all people who were on the same cruise together in Egypt. It would be MUCH worse if those 12 had never traveled anywhere.

abend237-04
abend237-04

We could have had dramatically more powerful information processing/virus early warning tools in the hands of CDC long before now had the rising threat(s) of future pandemics been taken seriously.
The Viral bullets have been whizzing past since the first Ebola outbreak in 1976, but interest, and funding, wane in the wake of each viral assault.
Even now, the talking heads are barking more at each other than the enemy.
Predictably, we're now starting to run short of key chemicals for reagents in test kits.

SMF
SMF

The Chinese may be correct in the numbers coming down from their high according to this chart.

abend237-04
abend237-04

@SMF I believe the Chinese numbers, not because I trust the CCP, but because Xi jumped on this with both feet after it exploded on Wuhan in December and was supported in the move. Early projections from NIH, etc. had China at a million cases by now had they taken no extraordinary actions.

Humans are smarter than viruses, but only if we're using our brains.
I'm also impressed, and encouraged, by Xi's openly challenging the Chinese wet markets. They are the reason 7.4 billion of us are at risk. No politician can ever lead his people anywhere they don't already want to go. The fact that Xi could shut down the wet markets and stay in power says volumes...so far, but says nothing about all the other wet markets still open.
Looking for a scary thrill? Check out this recent Australian 60 minutes episode.

SineAnalysis
SineAnalysis

Coronavirus is just a flu. Stop fanning the flames of hysteria. The panic over this Nothing Burger is real and all this hysteria is the product of websites like these creating fear in weak minds.

Brother
Brother

Mish, Stop stoking the fear and jump out your window already. You are giving people way to much credit in how they handle this situation. i.e. creating panic at stores and bringing the entire family along to buy 24 months worth of supplies. shame on you.


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