Nowcast Ends with 3.9% 4th-Quarter GDP forecast, 1st Quarter at 3.1%

Mish

Nowcast does its final forecast on the day GDP comes out. It concludes it's 4th-quarter forecast at 3.9%.

The final Nowcast estimate for 4th quarter GDP is an anticlimactic 3.9% today vs. the actual BEA estimate of 2.6%. The forecast for the first quarter is 3.1%.

Nowcast First-Quarter GDP Estimate

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Note that today's GDP report did not change the Nowcast First-Quarter estimate.

Today's GDP advance announcement was weaker than expected. Some found hidden strength, others hidden weakness.

For discussion, please see Weaker Than Expected GDP: Mixed Bag or Worse?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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