Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 and 1st Quarter 2017 Forecasts Dip Slightly: Three Hikes in 2017?
Nowcast Highlights: December 30, 2016
- The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2016:Q4 and 1.7% for 2017:Q1.
- This week’s only news was from wholesale inventories, which had a small negative impact on both the Q4 and Q1 Nowcast.
Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 Detail
Note that wholesale inventories rose nearly a full percentage point.
Econoday commented …
Wholesale inventories jumped a preliminary 0.9 percent in November following an upward revised 0.1 percent decline in October. Retail inventories also jumped, up 1.0 percent in November following an unrevised 0.4 percent decline in October. The build in wholesale inventories is split evenly between durable and nondurable goods with the build on the retail side concentrated in vehicles. The increases in this report are a surprise and, though a positive for the fourth-quarter GDP calculation and an offset to this morning’s widening in the goods trade gap, will revive talk of unwanted inventories.
That would have been my expectation as well. However, wholesale inventories have a negative contribution to the Nowcast model.
With the Nowcast of 1.8% for 2016 Q4 and 1.7% for 2017 Q1, expectations of three rate hikes in 2017 looks dubious at best.
Related Article: Wholesale and Retail Inventories Rise.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock