Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

Mish

Eventually, the coronavirus depression will subside. But what will America look like when it does?

Jim Bianco "This virus is the event of this generation. In the future, we will refer to this as pre-virus, post-virus."

Jim Bianco at Bianco Research made a fantastic, educational presentation last week on where we are and where we are going.

The presentation is 1 hour and 8 minutes in length. Playing it will be one of the best 68 minutes you have ever spent.

I played it twice.

Here's a link to a Free Trial subscription to Bianco Research.

What follows are my notes of Bianco's opinions, followed by my own comments at the end.

Again, these are MY Notes on what Jim said. Apologies for any translation errors.

What Happened?

In two words "Massive Revaluation".

We woke up in February and the market said "Oops, everything is at the wrong price and I will correct that immediately."

Why Fixed Income Locked Up

When the panic selling started, the dealers bought, bought, and bought, but then hit the limits of what they could hold on their balance sheet. This is more important in fixed income because fixed income operates under a dealer system.

The Fed realized the dealers don't have the capacity to make markets. The Fed offered them a repo facility. The Fed can wave its rules, but banks are also under BIS, Basel-3 capital requirements FDIC, OCC, etc., regulations.

The Fed said ignore the rules. The banks responded "You told me that in 2008, then you fined me $19 billion for buying WaMu after you told me to do it. So, I want a letter from the DOJ indemnifying me."

When that did not happen, the bond market froze up.

Bond Market ETF to NAV

Image placeholder title
  • ​The Fed, BOE, BOJ all doing the same thing over and over again and it isn't working. Why? We still have the wrong prices!
  • The bond ETFs have liquidity but the actual bond market doesn't. The discount to NAV suggests the price is wrong.
  • When prices get low enough bids and offers will emerge.
  • Dealers don't won't to get there now because they do not want a 2008 type of loss in the first quarter.
  • But look at the bank stock index. It is down 50%. Because mark-to-market rules have been suspended banks won't record these losses, but they are real.

What's Next? Twenty Things

  1. These scars will last a generation. A huge change in attitudes is underway.
  2. Credit ETFs are telling us lower. How will we know when prices are correct? When natural buyers come in, not when the Fed supports asset prices. As goes the credit market – so goes the stock market. Expect a massive wave of BBB downgrades.
  3. The jobs reports in April and May will be the worst in history.
  4. Earnings Negative For the Year. 1800-2000 Might be Fair Value on S&P 500.
  5. New Way of Business
  6. Crude will continue to glut until supply is taken out of the market. The Saudis want to burn Russia, Iran, and US frackers. Crude Trades Net of Storage and Transportation Costs. The lowest price crude is oil sands in Canada. Closed at $8 last Wednesday.
  7. China has Suffered Permanent Damage. The chinese economic miracle is done.
  8. Gold and Silver Struggle Until We Find the Equilibrium Level
  9. Huge Change in Risk Parity. The relationship between stocks and bonds broke. They are now likely to rise and fall together eliminating use of one or the other as a hedge. There is only one trade that works: Liquidation. Risk parity is done as an idea because the stock-bond relationship is no longer stable.
  10. Gargantuan deficits. The trillion dollar deficits of today will look like balanced budgets compared to what's coming next.
  11. Even as an Austrian Libertarian, we need fiscal stimulus like we have never seen before, because if we don't see it, we will rerun the Great Depression. We are in a world of least bad options. If there was a good option, the markets would not have fallen as far as they did, as fast as they did.
  12. Managing earnings ends. Corporate buybacks are gone. That's why we won't get back to the old highs.
  13. Less globalization. Less risk taking. This will depress earnings and market multiples.
  14. Higher interest rates and rates of inflation (after the crisis) and that will also depress stock market multiples.
  15. Whether or not we have a prolonged depression depends on the amount of corruption in Washington.
  16. Fed will not buy stocks. The same applies to Congress and SS funds. This would open up a huge can of worms that could potentially give the likes of AOC and radical liberals voting rights to all kinds of things including running the companies. Here's the Green News Deal, abide by it.
  17. Fed will not position rates below zero. No run on banks. The Fed has a printing press.
  18. The Elon Musk theory is this will all go away and we go back to buying $120K cars. But the market does not see it that way and neither do I.
  19. People will not forget this. This is not 911. It is not 1987.
  20. National crypto currencies coming. The next reserve currency will be a global crypto. It will not be Bitcoin.

Mish Comments on Bianco's Ideas

1: This is the second crisis in 12 years. The huge fear, and for the second time, is How Do I Pay the Bills? These scars will last.

3: The jobs estimates are too rosy still. Most of the estimates are for unemployment rates under 10%. The bare minimum I forsee is 12%. And that would be coupled with a U6 underemployment rate of close to 40%. For details and my calculations, please see 9% of the US Has Been Laid Off Due to the Coronavirus.

4: Earning estimates are going to dive. I commented Goldman Projects a Catastrophic GDP Decline Worse than Great Depression. Yet, despite these earnings forecasts, analysts expect the economy to be back near full strength by the 4th quarter. Toss that notion out the window. The recovery will be shallow and slow. Fair value might be 1800-2000 but markets tend to overshoot. The Fed short-circuited that process in 2009. Feelin' lucky this time?

5: New way of doing business. Just-in-time production strategies with no inventories are toast. It costs to hold inventory. There will be more production in the US as well. Trump won't like the result because the stock market won't like the result. Globalization is not over, but the rush to globalize everything is. The US, Europe, and China will all be more inward looking than before.

7: China has Suffered Permanent Damage. The chinese economic miracle is done. Those who thought China would surpass the US are mistaken.

8: Gold and Silver Struggle Until We Find Equilibrium Level. Today's $76 surge, a 5% rally suggests we may have found that level already.

9: Huge Change in Risk Parity. Risk parity strategies allowed massive amounts of leverage by hedge funds and pension plans. But that strategy is over. Pension plans are in a world of hurt.

11: Whether we want it or not, fiscal stimulus is coming. Yet, the debate in Congress postponed it again. Democrats and Republicans are fighting over who gets what. Both sides are undoubtedly wrong here. Congress bailed out the banks last time and look what happened: only the wealthy benefitted. But Democrats want 1100 pages of God knows what. Unfortunately, here we go again with "We have to pass the bill to see what's in it." This is not the time to be demanding a Green New Deal or crucifying small businesses with $15 minimum wages.

15: The Fed fears a collapse in credit. On that score, the Fed is correct. But once again, the Fed blew this bubble. If we save the banks and Boeing and the frackers, and throw the people under the bus, Bianco is correct: we have a prolonged depression. What's the perfect solution? There is none or if there is, I do not know what it is. We screwed up in 2001 and 2008. Is there any reason to believe we won't screw up again?

18: People won't go back to routinely buying $120K cars. In fact, car buying of all kinds will take a prolonged hit. Then with a few years, the whole idea of owning cars outright will change as true self-driving hits the road. Millennials do not see ownership of cars and homes as their boomer parents. This is part of the attitude adjustment process in point number 1.

20: Congress is going to issue checks. This is genuine helicopter money. Fed loans and repos aren't. It is going to take a while to process and send the checks. The Fed and Congress will present that delay as a national problem. The Fed will then push for and get a national cryptocurrency "for the people". Unlike Jim, I am not sure this leads to a global reserve crypto. I do not see the Fed or Congress or the president wanting to give up currency control. Perhaps this does happen down the line, but first things first: countries including the US ban will ban cash transactions. They will tout the benefits: Instant cash, fighting money laundering, fighting fraud, protecting us from the likes of Bitcoin. They will not tell you that the real purpose is to track every dollar in the system. We will have a loss of freedom, independence, and privacy as a direct result.

Constitutional Attack

In regards to the loss of freedom, indepence, and privacy, I also fear something Jim did not mention: A constitutional attack on Habeas Corpus, the right to a speedy trial.

Rolling Stone and Politico both had recent articles on suspension of Habeas Corpus.

Politico reports DOJ Seeks New Emergency Powers Amid Coronavirus Pandemic.

The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the novel coronavirus spreads throughout the United States.

Documents reviewed by POLITICO detail the department’s requests to lawmakers on a host of topics, including the statute of limitations, asylum and the way court hearings are conducted. POLITICO also reviewed and previously reported on documents seeking the authority to extend deadlines on merger reviews and prosecutions.

The move has tapped into a broader fear among civil liberties advocates and Donald Trump’s critics — that the president will use a moment of crisis to push for controversial policy changes.

There are 1100 pages in the emergency legislation. What's in it?

It is highly doubtful Democrats would grant such powers to a Republican. But if Republicans were in control of the House, such legislation could pass. Moreover, the same applies if Democrats held executive office and both branches of Congress.

Even if these fears are unfounded for now, it is disturbing, to say the least, that such powers are even requested.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (113)
No. 1-46
abend237-04
abend237-04

I agree with this entirely, think it's one of your best ever. Thanks.

Greggg
Greggg

Appropriately inappropriate. It fits.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XskIem_iFCE

truthseeker
truthseeker

Yesterday or the day before I exchanged some comments with Realist where I suggested that Trump should announce to the nation that since this crisis is so challenging he would not seek re-election in order to help unify the country. Today after watching some of his news conference, I am convinced that Vice President Pence, especially since things are becoming much more dangerous, should be the man to unite and lead the nation and that President Trump should step down.

Greggg
Greggg

The "Justice" Department went further than that. The wanted to strip state district court judges from arraigning suspects. Nobody worries about the Patriot Act until it's too late. Sorry to say, this country is no longer ours.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This is the true end of the secular bear market. We thought it started in 2001 and ended in 2017 or 2018 but the real historical cycle is 18.5 years. From fall 2001 add up 18.5 years and you get to - wait for it - March 2020. So in the end valuations will go to the start of a secular bull market that will start sometime later this summer or fall. Remember in these cycles we always overshoot to the upside but also overshoot to the downside. I suspect maybe we could see S&P 1500 at the bottom and Dow 12,000. The global financial crisis in 2009 masked things and many were fooled into believing by 2010 that the secular bear market was ending. The question is do we get the cycle that Ray Dalio is predicting and a new form of monetarism or does the system stay in tact. The last time we had this cycle was in the 1930s and it wasn't this short. It took a world war to get enough jobs and spending to get out of the depression.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Nasdaq is still wildly overpriced. Twitter today suspended their forecast because of "ad revenue crash". Why is Google still at 1000? Should be at 500. I am going to buy puts tomorrow.

I have no readings on international matters. I agree China as it is right now will not replace the US, but if the US were to foolishly go to war, the combination of both China and Russia will throw the US back to Flintstone time. Israel is also inching for a fight with Iran, and I think that might happen this year.

Replacement for US Dollar. Digital currency backed by Gold. Seems like a perfect fit.

Ted R
Ted R

Best thing I have watched in a long time. Hopefully OPEC is finished, for good.

hmk
hmk

"When the panic selling started, the dealers bought, bought, and bought, but then hit the limits of what they could hold on their balance sheet. This is more important in fixed income because fixed income operates under a dealer system." What exactly were they buying? Treasuries, MBS, corporate bonds? Primary dealers are conduits for Treasuries only I thought. If they were only buying Treasuries whats the problem. They can just get a repo loan on those, correct? If they were buying corporate bonds and MBS why were they buying them? Are they obligated to or were they thinking they could profit from buying them and got stuck when pricing went down after buying them? Sorry I just can't get the whole concept of what he is saying there.
Any clarification by you Mish would be greatly appreciated.

MiTurn
MiTurn

Cut the Defense budget in half, as a start, and it will still be too much of the pie. We have to quit with the bipartisan warmongering. War -- it's what we do.

bradw2k
bradw2k

I predict that unpredictable political changes are what's next. So many groups just awoke to the fact that there's FAR less wealth in the world than previously hoped, the fighting over the scraps has just begun. This will go from ugly (who the heck even had time to write an 1100-page bailout wish list?!) to uglier. This will go on in different ways, on different stages, for many years. Frankly this culture, which doesn't even WANT capitalism -- individual rights including private property -- after having it served up on a silver platter to us by the Founders and a few geniuses like Mises and Rand, is getting what it deserves. The fumes of the Enlightenment have run out.

That's the big picture, anyway. The small picture, which is more important, is up to each individual.

Stuki
Stuki

Nothing, aside from a set of crass theft rackets, have worked since 1971. That was back when Boeing managed to build planes, people walked on the moon, ICs and arpanet were invented, and Sinatra, Elvis, Zeppelin and Kraftwerk were all active. Then, facilitated by removing the last vestige of restrictions of complete and total debasement, came financialization....

The virus just made covering up the undifferentiated failures that are financialization, judicial activism, "the war on everything" and "the ownership society", a tiny bit harder than it was before.

Also, the virus demonstrated quite clearly that Chinese style communism, is a vastly superior form of government than Post -71 Western style financializationism. Vastly superior. And that is not even remotely on account of Chinese style communism being anything even resembling a decent form of government.

Russell J
Russell J

All the while we were running on our hamster wheels for toys and treats they were building a cage around us, thanks to this opportunity soon it will be complete. I guess we're f#$ked.

"despite all my rage I'm still just a rat in a cage" Billy Corgan, Smashing Pumpkins.

Freebees2me
Freebees2me

Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?

Good Question

Answer: greatness

Why: because our society is the planet's quickest society to adapt. We do not see or experience roadblocks - we see only opportunities.

Flexibility: In Europe (the epicenter of Socialism), a business could NOT change their business model withOUT permission of the Government. Think about it!

America is about INNOVATION and our BEAUTIFUL country makes that possible...

Herkie
Herkie

Mish, I hate to say this, but I believe that the polarization in America is so irreconcilable that the ONLY thing that stopped it from breaking the nation up was the shared nationwide prosperity (more or less, sure life was still hard for the bottom 60% or so, those that could not come up with $500 in an emergency) but as long as unemployment was so low and the economy was moving people would bitch about politics but not much else.

Now though that prosperity is history. The larger blue urban regions are going to demand a systematic overhaul in the way we operate. And to a degree I see them as being right about some things, the problem is they want to throw out the baby with the bathwater, I say we need to reform capitalism, they want to simply extinguish it entirely.

They have a lot of special problems living in urban regions that the rest of the nation does not have, those call for special answers and policies and those are not always cheap. But, the rural rest of the nation resents both the cost of those solutions as well as the liberal free thinking that flourishes in cities and universities. But it is all complex, like the right has always attempted to gay people back in the closet, they fear change. Even though the freedom to love and marry the right person for YOU should never be dictated by legal policy ever, in any way. Yet, I can empathize with the fear of change because there are many changes the younger urban dwellers want that I abhor. Cloud com[puter driven cars for example, I will leave America if they ever become fact. Battling greenhouse gasses, and so called climate change. The climate is an unstable thing so large that it takes a lot of propaganda and even more hubris to think we seriously affect it at all. But they want to uproot all that made us what we are in order to "save" the planet and the only outcome to that will be to lower the population back to a sustainable carrying capacity of between 2 and 2.5 billion people.

In short there is a lot of fat in the fire right now and our very future depends on getting it right because the margin for error we can survive is very narrow when there are this many people on a planet that can't sustain them.

Fundamental policy will indeed have to change or nature will do it for us. But I assure you NOBODY is going to be happy with it. Most especially conservatives.

I think the USA will break up this year. It will all come to a head in the election, even if the virus is forgotten Trump will have so little to run on, to defend his record with. He has a proven track record of using division and exploitation, if he is to come back he will have to employ that to the last degree, at least in his mind.

I believe that all this is on display with the current attempts to pass a stimulus bill.

McConnell wants nothing but a historic no strings attached blank check to Wall Street, with a few expanded benefits for unemployed, and a tax credit for some middle class that they will eventually get when they file taxes. Democrats are saying NO! NO blank check for businesses that spent the last ten years buying back stock and feathering their own nests until we are at the apex in all of human history of wealth inequality that would have SHAMED the Romans. Any bailouts will be for things that help PEOPLE get through this and the largest share of bonus to business will be via checks to individuals who will then spend as needed with a few industry specific assists to vital defense companies, but that will be repayable over the long run.

The senate is utterly divided and will not come to a deal. It is an election year and Moscow Mitch is giving the finger to actual people. There is no limit to the largess he is willing to show to corporate America even as families break up and the men become hobos so their wives and kids can get some assistance.

In many ways it will resemble Hoover's America for a while, but unless we get a genuine FDR we are dead. FDR came along at just the right moment in history, because he did the USA survived. Had he not we would not have and we would have remained isolationists to the point the Axis powers would have won the war. This time we just do not have a FDR, I thought Mayor Pete had that mental and emotional strength, but FDR only got into office because he was both American aristocracy as well as a populist and defender of the little guy. Mayor Pete is not American aristocracy, had he been the number of people suspicious of his gay identity would have been smaller.

Given the problems, and the lack of solutions, and the polarization, I think it will either be civil war which I doubt, or a break up ala the old Soviet Union.

Stan88
Stan88

Y'all are missing the most important issue: Both Government and private debt at all levels is astronomical and completely unpayable. Until this gets resolved you can kiss any recovery goodbye.

Augustthegreat
Augustthegreat

The collapse of the American empire in 2020

wootendw
wootendw

"What's the perfect solution? There is none or if there is, I do not know what it is."

There is probably no solution that will make every happy. What would make me happy would be the dissolution of the United States into 50 independent countries. It might not make me nor anyone else rich but I'd love to see everyone in Congress, the White House and the Federal bureaucracy, just lose their jobs and become poor.

tokidoki
tokidoki

Looks like the economy is going to open soon per Trump. The absence of Dr Fauci during the press announcement is possible proof of this.

Greggg
Greggg

Less than 1% of Italy's death rate from covid 19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzbFGCuZ_rY

Realist
Realist

What’s next for America after the pandemic and severe recession?

What I hope:

A realization among Americans that science is important, and that warnings from scientists should be heeded.

A reduction in animosity in your political system, resulting in more bipartisanship for the good of the nation.

The creation of a national emergency preparedness organization, filled with experts who are responsible for looking out for threats, plus planning and preparing for the most likely threats. Many of the personnel for this organization will be gathered from the military, as the US closes the bulk of its foreign military bases that they can no longer afford to maintain.

The creation of a national, single payer, health care system, that works hand-in-hand with the emergency preparedness organization. This would include a national procurement system to prevent the price gouging that is occurring in basic health care items like masks and gloves in times like this. The preparedness organization could be responsible for procurement and appropriate stockpiling.

A reduction in the level of crony capitalism.

What I expect:

A continuation of trends we have seen for many decades.

More political partisanship, with supporters of each party becoming increasingly violent.

Faster and faster changes in jobs that are created, leading to more disparity among those with skills and education, versus those without. This will result in the further reduction in the size of the middle class, and more poverty and resentment.

Huge increases in government debt loads resulting in increased debt servicing costs, lower living standards, lowered social security payouts, less Medicaid, higher taxes and fees.

More impact from global warming, and climate change, as the US cannot afford to even pay for mitigation efforts, let alone prevention efforts.

Zero growth for as far as the eye can see.

In other words; more of the same.

njbr
njbr

This question is still way too early, just like "when will the market recover?"

We have yet to have the national recognition that lots of people are dead simply because we weren't prepared, don't have PPE, don't have ventilators or beds, and a significant portion of our medical workers have succumbed.

We are in the second inning of a long game. The destruction will be immense.

Just because Donny DF Trump is tired of the shutdown because it is a bummer to campaign on and he's used to a rapid-fire news cycle, real life isn't like that and we have much more suffering in store.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus

The tulip mania brought down the Dutch republic. Toilet paper mania will bring down the American empire.

ohno
ohno

So 20 points on where we're going and not one mention of covid19. Now Trumps says were opening back up soon. Is this crap real or overhyped or wtf? Yesterday it was the worst thing ever, millions are going to die, now we have bailouts and talks of opening back up. What the hell is going on?

anoop
anoop

DNFTF -- do not fight the fed. Get ready to experience the fastest recovery ever.

daveyp
daveyp

Fair value 1800? Try 600. Or lower. The entire world economy has stopped on a dime. The market fell 90% before as did the Nikkei and I see nothing that indicates it cannot happen again. Fed and fiscal stimulus notwithstanding. This is the greatest deflationary impulse in history. That said I'm loaded up on ultra long dated gold plays in case I'm wrong.

Steve_R
Steve_R

After reading the comments on this post, I am bullish in the market, why you may ask, because everyone is bearish. I read someone thinks googl is going to 500, maybe but it probably goes to 1300 first. If you want to use puts here, prepare to have your head handed to you.

lol
lol

Dow drops below 15k look for NIRP this week along with TARP 2.0 pumpin tens of trillions more in banks and stocks and direct bailouts to state pensions.The only thing that will never be bailed out is the main street economy...ever!

QE2Infinity
QE2Infinity

Good material from both Jim and Mish. I disagree with the "we need financial stimulus or we'll have a Great Depression." The depression was made Great by FDR performing numerous numb skull experiments on the economy. He was crippled
in mind, soul and body. The government has no money to stimulate with. It just robs and spends: usually on hair brained schemes. How about the Fed and Government butting out. Haven't they cause enough trouble already.

_will
_will

This is ironically one situation where the alarmists would happily embrace martial law. Terrorism ran it's course over 20 years, so politicians will seize any opportunity for more control. In other news, more academics question the current policies: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

truthseeker
truthseeker

Mish this really has been an absolutely fantastic post! Things are lining up historically just as responsible Christians have predicted.

Solon
Solon

One of the strange things is that The Fed has taken no hit to its public credibility in this crisis. The drop in the markets and the strain on the financial system has largely been blamed on the virus and "who could see that coming"?

No one wants to face Another Great Depression, so The Fed is generally being lauded for using every bazooka they have to stave off that possibility.

A lot of what changes will depend on the various post mortems that are held after the crisis has abated.

And that's when we will see the corruption---I mean besides the blatant and obvious corruption in Congress as the two parties bicker over which pigs shall be slaughtered to appease the masses---sorry---their donors.

The corruption will come in the post mortem... that's when we will see whether they pull moves like banning cash... or banning buybacks. Like in the aftermath of 9-11, that's when the power game will occur.

The heavy implication in Mish's article above is that attitudes towards savings will change, both by households and business.

I'm not so sure about that. That likely depends on the actions of The Fed down the road. You cannot pump money into an economy and not expect that printing to result in speculation. Happens every time.

And from what we've see in the past is that The Fed has no exit for the drastic actions it is taking.

The Fed needs to let deflation happen and interest rates rise to normal levels, while mitigating deflation's more catastrophic effects. But will they leave it at that?

marg54
marg54

WHO: US has potential to be "epicentre of outbreak"

A spokeswoman from the World Health Organisation has said that US risks becoming the next epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak as the country is seeing a “very large acceleration” in cases.

RonJ
RonJ

"But look at the bank stock index. It is down 50%. Because mark-to-market rules have been suspended banks won't record these losses, but they are real."

1+1 always = 2.

RonJ
RonJ

"Even if these fears are unfounded for now, it is disturbing, to say the least, that such powers are even requested."

How are they unfounded when the government is shutting down the economy at this very moment, on its command?

Dyleck0680
Dyleck0680

In Poland gold dealers are run out of stock. Whatever left is 15% above spot prices. Interesting...

kamal03
kamal03

Point 11 I can't agree on: "Even as an Austrian Libertarian, we need fiscal stimulus like we have never seen before, because if we don't see it, we will rerun the Great Depression." Real Austrian, of Mises kind, (Libertarian is more ambiguous) would never say that, or suggest government intervention for any reason.

goprisko
goprisko

I worked and lived in China as Prof of Engineering and Dean at Shenzhen University.

The PRC will emerge as the world’s largest economy by the end of the year, because:

  1. The whipped COVID-19. They have the most experience with it. They developed treatment modalities for it that work. They geared up to produce stuff to combat it. They will and are giving this freely to anyone who asks. They hwave the means to deliver the goods by air if necessary.
  2. The PRC and Russia will team to produce state of the art aircraft, ships, trains and cars at prices the world wants., using their disease free workforce.
  3. No one in the PRC went hungry, lost their home, lost their job, or lost their savings during the lockdown.
  4. Agriculture in the PRC is back to normal. Producers were supported in selling their produce, and in planting this season’s crops.
  5. Small and mid-level companies were supported, financially with forgiveness of loans, retooling, or both, until they are on their feet.
  6. Transport system is returning to operation with changes to identify the newly infected in real-time.
  7. Tracking APP works, now knows contacts of the newly infected in real-time. It notifies the at risk to self quarantine in real-time, and they obey. This will curtail re-emergence of COVID-19.
  8. All foreign arrivals go into 14 day quarantine, no exceptions. This is how they know the number of cases from them.
  9. OBOR projects are up and running again.
  10. US response is muddled. Lots of talk, no action. Average savings of $400 is a joke. People will be put on the street with nothing to eat and nowhere to go.
  11. In PRC treatment for COVID-19 was free. In the US, it will bankrupt the victims.
  12. In PRC the govt provides loans and startup capital to produce what it feels is needed. The markets broken, where will such funds come from in the US? Answer…. Nowhere...
klausmkl
klausmkl

we have been on life support since the great recession.We have not had 1 single year of 3% or greater gdp. So we will be even worse now after all these bailouts. Coronavirus was/is a smoke screen for the thefts which just occurred on a massive scale. Americans deserve it though. An ignorant, gluttonous group of obese slobs. Go eat some cookies you slobs.

CharlesOCasey
CharlesOCasey

A Republic, if you can keep it... If we want to keep it, we should probably know why the Roman Republic (not empire) fell. We're on that curve. Because Republics are ALWAYS on that curve.

Voltaic
Voltaic

Excellent analysis, but I am surprised that not once did you mention any republicans by name but you can toss AOC and radical democrats out there freely. How is it that every time the crap hits the fan a republican is at the top? Any answers? Any answers why your trump called the virus a hoax for nearly two on ths or said it was just like the flu or a cold? Why wasn't trump prepared? Why wasn't trump's CDC prepared? But tossing AOC out there is an easy one for the click bait.

Why not mention Bill Barr or Ron DeSantis by name since they want to end habeas corpus because they and their republican party acted too slowly and too late. You never mention trump once, but AOC gets anod. Pathetic.

Then you say if it wasn't for democrats habeas corpus would be a thing of the past, but then you say if they had power they would do it too! Why not just brand each of your commentaries as republican views?

Maybe a little bit more about the complete and total failure of the trump response to the virus might give you some impartiality, but that's not in your playbook apparently. As with trump, when the going gets good you take credit, but when the crap hits the fan you won't take the blame.

I knew from the start that once trump had a crisis he would fuck it up completely. He doesn't care. All he wants is his name on the relief checks! He's your man. Take the results but don't mention him by name...

Shane$
Shane$

we might as well sell everything and get what we can based on this analysis.

Debbie C.
Debbie C.

I feel like I'm sitting above the heavens gates watching the heavens, via gvmt branch, like guys in white robes, with long white beards, @ the pearly gates,& they think they're getting away with 2 sets of books. Like truckers, used to get accused of. One for digital banking that's real, the other, is not. Most public, thinks it's real. But they're in the Not pile! The heavens, are sitting in the office comparing, what people are really doing. All along, we are being dupped. Then, the real cash flow, hidden away, in some safe place, is the real deal. Yup. I will add it to my bank account as needed.

PeteF
PeteF

Happy to see less JIT manufacturing. The system needs some slack for the cases where everything doesn’t go perfectly. Also happy to see more manufacturing brought back to the US. I’d be happy to pay $10 more for an iPhone made here.

vboring
vboring

People fear things they don't understand and act irrationally based on that fear.

How would you interpret the same data if you knew for a fact how this virus was going to play out? If the total impact ends up being .5% total population death rate, mostly old and/or infirm? 1%? 5%? You pick your upper bound.

The point isn't to be callous or indifferent to these tragedies, but to have a reasonable perspective on economy-wide impacts informed by likely possibilities rather than open-ended fear-driven mania.

Certainly there will be social and economic impacts, but this is a virus, not a nuclear war. It will kill some people and temporarily reduce productivity. It will dramatically reduce a few weeks to months of earnings. It won't level cities.

Gongo
Gongo

Guys,

Gongo
Gongo

Wow!


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