No Thanksgiving Cheer for the Unemployed

Mish

Congress is on a week long holiday as unemployment claims rise.

Staff talks are underway but ABC News reports discussions on Thursday were strictly about passing the omnibus spending bill – which would fund the government through next year – and were unrelated to any additional coronavirus relief.

Meanwhile lockdowns increase and unemployment claims are ticking up.

Initial Claims Rose Second Week

Initial State Unemployment Claims  2020-11-25 Report

Initial claims rose for the second consecutive week. That is the first occurrence since mid-July

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 November 25  Report

Continued claims fell but they lag initial claims by a week. 

Don't count on seasonal hiring to save the day because the the numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Primary PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020  November 15 Report

PEUC Claims 

PEUC Claims 2020-11-25 Report

Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation 

PEUC claims rose again, despite some people exhausting all their benefits.

How the Claims Tie Together

  1. Most states offer at least 26 weeks of unemployment insurance plus 13 or more weeks of extended benefits. Some states offer more. States offering 30 or fewer weeks are noted.
  2. A Federal pandemic PEUC (Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation) program kicks in after regular state programs expire. PEUC provides 13 weeks of compensation at the paid state level but the money comes from the federal government. Every state participates in PEUC. It kicks in before extended benefits.
  3. Persons not eligible for state claims can file for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program. PUA covers gig workers and self-employed workers who are not covered by state programs. It also covers part-time workers. PUA is rife with fraud and terrible reporting.
  4. After PEUC expires, most but not all states have Extended Benefit programs also paid by the federal government but not every state is in the program. 

Benefits Rapidly Expiring

Unemployment Insurance Varies Widely

My chart above is modified from CBPP Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Policy Basics: How Many Weeks of Unemployment Compensation Are Available?

Where I show two numbers, the first number is regular state unemployment insurance and the second number (if present) represents extended benefits.

Unemployment Math

  • Unemployment spiked on March 21.
  • We are in week 36 of the pandemic.
  • The federal government provides 13 weeks of unemployment insurance to all states.
  • 36 - 13 = 23.

If you lost your job early in any state that provides 22 or less weeks of state + extended benefits, then you have exhausted all of your state benefits and all of your PEUC benefits.

Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina ,Missouri and Idaho are all in that group. 

12 Million Face Unemployment Benefit Cliff On December 26

PUAC and PEUC expires on December 26. 

About 3.5 million people already exhausted PEUC.

Unless there is a deal, about 12 million people will lose all their unemployment benefits in December.

Bankruptcies, evictions, and foreclosures will soar.

I expect a deal, but it will not be the all encompassing deal that Democrats want.

Mish

Comments (79)
No. 1-17
ohno
ohno

How many more weeks can we endure the better part of 1 million people losing their jobs? How long before those in essential positions will no longer be needed because they are interrelated? How many essential businesses depend on non-essential businesses? Are these lockdown restrictions really worth it? It appears many here think they are but I think there are some really nefarious reasons that go way beyond covid19. Yeah right, crash the entire economy then leave millions hanging out to dry with no jobs and no unemployment? I don't buy any of this for an instant! I know the virus is real but this is insane. For those of us who are better off exactly how much longer before all these millions losing everything start creating problems for the rest of us? You tell me, i'm all ears.

Zardoz
Zardoz

Ah, the filthy poors. Did Jesus not teach that they exist only as profit centers for God’s chosen? To be poor is to be chastised by God for not being holy enough!

njbr
njbr

Walt Disney Co. is planning to layoff 32,000 employees, primarily at its theme parks, as the coronavirus continues to hit the entertainment company's businesses hard.

Disney announced 28,000 job cuts in September and it expects to terminate its employees' contracts in the first half of fiscal 2021.

The company warned that it could take additional measures such as not declaring future dividends and either reducing or not making certain payments, such as contributions to its pension and postretirement medical plans.

numike
numike

One of the most frustrating things about covid is how often it forces you to return to first principles.
This is a virus. It spreads by close contact between people, especially inside. People are afraid of getting this virus, so many of them will stay at home regardless of whether there are government restrictions in place.
This isn't complicated. It is very basic indeed. And yet it still seems beyond the comprehension of many of the people who regularly debate the issue. https://mailchi.mp/politics/week-in-review-infantilising-the-covid-debate

Greenmountain
Greenmountain

Agree with Mich - 11th hour+ 59 minute fix will be passed - probably not good, but not horrible and all the other fixes - health care for the uninsured, housing will be kicked down the road as Congress seems to have loss interest in their part of the democracy.

Sechel
Sechel

meanwhile....

(Dow Jones) -- WASHINGTON -- President Trump's decision to defer payroll taxes until the end of the year is leaving challenges for lawmakers to manage after he leaves office in January, and they haven't figured out what -- if anything -- to do.

Carl_R
Carl_R

This weekend should give a good indication of the extent of the problem. Thus far the economy seems to be functioning more or less OK. Obviously, there was no need for another $3 Trillion of spending last summer. Had that gone through, what would we have now? Dow 1 million? Huge inflation? Perhaps.

In the meantime, it seems reasonable to believe that as unemployment benefits run out, this will eventually take a broad toll on the economy. I expect that the government will step in and pass some form of extensions for unemployment benefits. Hopefully they won't get crazy and do much more than that, but I can't predict. Now, if it turns out that this next week is very, very slow for retail, and if even online holiday purchases take a hit, then I expect the government will most likely step in with more dramatic action.

In the meantime, what can and should we all be doing? Government is neither the only answer, nor even the best answer. Charities traditionally play a key role in times like these. Consider donating extra gifts to them as the end of the year approaches. If you are religious, you can donate to things like Churches, City Missions, or the Salvation Army. If not, there are also secular causes like the Food Bank, etc. Don't expect the government to be the only answer.

Johnson1
Johnson1

Unemployment in my state is back to the same level it was during Obama's last 2 years. It is now at 4.9%. The last 2 years of Obama's administration it ranged between (4 to 5). It then dipped lower during Trump's last 2 years down to 3.1%.

Traffic seems back to normal. Restaurants are almost full again. Some I visited two weeks ago had every table taken. I personally do not know one person who is unemployed. My daughter actually had 1 job prior to the pandemic. Was laid off. When lockdowns ended, she started apply for jobs. She got her old job back and was offered another job. So she took the new but still works part time at her old job. Thus she was able to secure 2 jobs over the past 6 months. Same thing happened to a friend of hers. They both are working 2 jobs.

I think she was able to get 2 jobs because while the extra unemployment benefits were being paid out some people did not want to go back to work as they would be making less money. If you were aggressive and looking for a job then you could easily find one.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Democrats should want personal bankruptcy over extended unemployment funds since the claim could be made the capitalist Republicans are taking the losses instead of taxpayers in general.

Jojo
Jojo

Every day I see the TV featuring people waiting hours in lines for food handouts, charities telling us that homelessness is soaring, I see stories about people losing their living arrangements, malls are empty, much of retail is filing for bankruptcy and of course, politicians, health officers and MSM keep telling us the situation is "DIRE", how the virus is "RAGING", stay home, stay away from everyone else or you'll get the cooties, hospitals are overcrowded, there aren't enough ICU beds, etc., etc.

Yet, after 8 months of this constant scare mongering and among my hundreds of connections including family, friends and loose acquaintances, I still don't know even one person who has actually had Covid, let along been hospitalized or died. NOT ONE! This doesn't seem mathematically probable and has to make me wonder how real the MSM numbers actually are.

OTOH, the stock market is going gang busters, companies are talking about new IPO's, housing sales are soaring as are prices, airports are crowded with people flying to family or vacation for Thanksgiving, online shopping sales are exceeding expectations, B&M stores are crowded, local traffic in my area is up significantly and I am seeing many new cars where I live (lot of Tesla's!) .

I doubt the Republicans are seeing a need for further stimulus. Perhaps if the markets were allowed to crash?

Mishisadem
Mishisadem

I can offer two facts:
My son in law in DC was laid off and is getting $660 per week in unemployment. That is >$2400per month.
He is not even going to look for a new job until March.

My job is in packaging - we are going very strong. We have about 200 job openings in our factories in ATL, LA, INDY and Houston. About $20 per hour and full med coverge. We are trying to get temps but that is also difficult.

ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant

I have lived in Colorado since 1979 and all you have to do is notice the out of state license plates to know who is hurting, I remember when they were from Michigan, then Texas, and today we are flooded with California plates.

ohno
ohno

If they're going to shut it down and cause millions of job losses then they're going to have to initiate UBI. I'm sorry but with the amount of people getting laid off it's either that or instant hellhole. The people that already say we're 3rd world are going to see the true definition if something isn't done. And that something isn't lockdowns and masks till the end of time as recently (from what I heard) suggested from even some of the top brass in our military. There is way more to this than meets the eye.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

God only knows how we get put of this mess. The societal stress will leave scars for years. It demands the type of mobilisation a world war would else the under class will only grow and instability result.

Imagine what happens if its proven this came from a lab?
If that happens, and the stress as severe as it could be, no need to worry about tariffs. Its game over for relations with the CCP.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

I watched this yesterday. Our future is kind of doomed unless we get a form of capitalism where workers benefit just as much as investors and shareholders.

Carl_R
Carl_R

Black Friday sales were massive. So much for Pelosi's theory that Trillions more should have been pumped into the economy over the last few months.

1Roseburgman
1Roseburgman

When the economy worked well Congress seemed to be fine. In fact, we all know the less they did, the better off we all were. Now that Congress must give very serious thought to what they do in order to save the nation, we can see they haven't a clue. Invest in ammo.


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