No CNN, Bernie Sanders Is Not in the Lead

Mish

CNN is discussing a Bernie surge. It's fiction.

Hello CNN, Surge? What Surge?

That CNN Tweet yesterday caught my eye.

In response, I commented: Excuse me for asking, but is there any particular reason to believe CNN is right and 5 other pollsters wrong?

Curiously, Real Clear Politics listed CNN at the top despite the fact there were two newer polls. What's up with that?

CNN Outlier

Regardless of order presented, CNN is the outlier.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SRSS. The report is 69 pages long.

In contrast, the YouGov Poll is a far more detailed 307 pages.

YouGov Clip Page 96

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SSRS Clip Page 9

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SSRS Weights?

Notice how You-Gov gathered and reported on stats by age, race, gender, income group, and national region.

There is no indication SSRS did anything similar, or if they did, weighted things properly.

One of Two Things

  1. The CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash
  2. All the other polls are complete trash

Excluding CNN, Biden has remarkably consistent numbers as follows: 28, 30, 29, 32, 29.

In contrast, support for Warren and Sanders is extremely inconsistent between pollsters, but with CNN having the highest total.

Only by diving into the polls can one spot potential errors.

Take your pick, but I strongly suggest the CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash and should be discarded entirely.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (34)
No. 1-18
Greggg
Greggg

The effect of his heart attack is fading from the public memory. Things like that have an expiration date of a month or two.

Sechel
Sechel

You didn't go far enough Mish. An economist would have done some historical analsyis and regressions against other polls in general. Is there a flaw in CNN's polling methodology? Is there a perceived statistical bias. Simply saying CNN is showing a different result on Bernie is interesting but dot the i's still need dotting on this.

It wouldn't shock me if CNN is trying to create a controversy to bring in ratings but that's just a belief on my part. Maybe they had a bad poll and were quick to jump on the results without questioning it. I don't know. More interested in the general question as to whether CNN polling is less accurate than the others.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The polls are meaningless as we saw in 2016.

SMF
SMF

How can pollsters get correct data if people don't pick up their phones if the number is unknown?

awc13
awc13

"Take your pick, but I strongly suggest the CNN/SSRS poll is complete trash and should be discarded entirely."

CNN is complete trash

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Trump says there is so much income growth that they will look at entitlement cuts. It is the greatest economy ever created according to him.

Mish
Mish

Editor

I believe this is my final call before the 2016 election

"If Trump does win North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada, he will win. My off the cuff analysis suggests he is ahead in those states, but some of them are very close."

The polls were quite reasonable - few believed them - one reason is Trump had to carry nearly every close state.

I had the rust belt going to Trump, including Michigan.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Sechel
Sechel

About throwing out the cnn (iss) data and averaging the others. I'm going off on a tangent here, but reminded of a discussion by Benoit Mandelbot about throwing out data that seemingly didn't jive. He claimed it lost vital information. But here we're not talking about data points but a complete study. If we're convinced its bad sure, otherwise we're leading to confirmation bias

Latkes
Latkes

Bernie would be 80 within the first year of his presidency. Creepy Uncle Joe will be 79 in his first year if he becomes president. This is getting worse than the Soviet Union.

Sechel
Sechel

my beef with polling or more particular how the results are used. news outlets often cherry pick a single stat they think paints a picture consistent with their agenda but even worse. at most they might report the margin of error, sometimes they report the sample size but, what about how it was conducted such as venue whether it was in person , used cell phones, landlines and what was the exact questions asked. Not sure about you but I don't answer spam calls, well if a pollster was attempting to contact me, I'm already excluded. Most of the time polls are biased in favor by selecting people who love talking to strangers, many of us don't

Blurtman
Blurtman

Capitalist running dogs cower in fear.

KidHorn
KidHorn

Bernie has strong support among young voters. They say they are likely to vote, but end up not voting. Old people have all day to vote and have nothing better to do.

RonJ
RonJ

"CNN is discussing a Bernie surge. It's fiction."

CNN is fiction.

RonJ
RonJ

What are Biden's poll numbers going to be when the truth about the Biden corruption comes out?

Capn_Renault
Capn_Renault

The (understandable) mistake Mish is making here is his assumption that CNN is still a "news" organization concerned with accuracy. That hasn't been the case in years.

It says a lot about the indoctrination camps in the USA (we used to call them schools!!) that the populace no longer has the reading comprehension skills to do what Mish did above. Shame on the indoctrination camps

Sechel
Sechel

new data suggests Sanders support is growing.


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