Mish
Axios noted 1 business thing: Wall Street slowly getting less bullish on 2019.
Yep, but not a single bearish forecast. Wells Fargo was lowest at 6.3%. Only 4 analysts expected lower than 10%.
JP Morgan, Canaccord, UBS, and Deutsche Bank topped the list at 23.7%, 27.6%, 27.6%, and 29.6% respectively.
Expect more revisions, but don't expect any negative forecasts.
I will take the under: -10.0% to be more precise.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mish: I'd recommend digging out last year's version of this chart, and seeing if any of them predicted a 5-10% drop in the S&P500 in 2018. The real reason this is unbelievable isn't that they are predicting positive returns, it is that they are bothering to predict at all based on their track record.
The median return is above 8%(excluding dividends), so that's the most likely number. That's what I would pick if it's a contest to be correct.
23%! I’m a fool not to go all in. Free money!
Baby steps ... can it even break above 2630 convincingly again?
I think a lot of forecasts got changed after what happen in December. Many were expecting a slowdown in 2019 but after the markets went haywire they recalibrated everything. My forecast is S&P will be down 15-20% at the end of 2019 but we will take the scenic route.
By the way if the markets were down for 2018 and we had decent economic growth imagine what happens if we actually get a real recession and negative growth. The banks are going to be disappointed if they think they are going to get more free money from the Fed. My guess is we get a double dip recession in 2019 and the deeper one in 2020 when the debt problem ensues. My guess is Trump exits the office and declares victory at some point. The mess will be P&P's watch.
By the middle of the year both intermediate cycles will be aligned to the downside. There is another 20-30% to the downside from here.
I don’t make short term market predictions like ‘what the market will do in 2019´. But put up a chart of most US markets over several decades and the potential to grow your wealth is definitely there. Of course I would never invest more than 30% of my assets in stocks. It’s important to be diversified. My only prediction for 2019 is that the US and world economies will continue the 10 year trend of slow growth, barring a black swan event.
I remember when Rukeyser kicked the last negative elf off his show, as the Nasdaq topped out in 2000.
Would you want to be the lone guy who made a bearish forecast and then got fired when that was wrong?
For these forecasts it is better to hide among all the others and since everyone makes bullish forecasts nobody can be blamed when the crash happens.
Editor
No negative forecasts? Wow that's really bearish!
Well, looks like DB were nearly right on the money.
