New Home Sales, Essentially Flat, Crush Expectations

Mish

New home sales rose 0.6% in April, but from a small downward revision. This was enough to crush expectations.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced new residential sales statistics for April 2020.

Key Statistics

  • New Home Sales Sales: 623,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual Rate (SAAR). This is 0.6 percent above the revised March rate of 619,000, but is 6.2 percent  below the April 2019 estimate of 664,000.
  • Sales Price: The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2020 was $309,900. The average sales price was $364,500.
  • For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 325,000. This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate.  

Revision Notice

With this release, seasonally adjusted estimates of housing units sold, housing units for sale, and the  months' supply of new housing have been revised back to January 2015. 

March Revision

The Census Bureau revised March from 627,000 units SAAR to 619,000 SAAR. Factoring out the revision, sales fell by 0.6%. 

Let's call the whole thing "essentially flat". 

New Home Sales April 2020 Detail

New Home Sales April 2020 Detail

Expectations Crushed

Bloomberg Econoday economists missed the marke badly this month.

The consensus estimate was 495,000 SAAR. 

Stocks are flying on this "beat the street" performance. The Dow is up 2.7%, the S&P 500 up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq up .7% as of Noon central.

Mish

Comments (9)
No. 1-6
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Let's call the whole thing "essentially flat".

...

Go back further.

New home sales adjusted

March report:

January ... 777K
February ... 741K
March ... 627K

April report:

January ... 774K
February ... 717K
March ... 619K
April ... 623K

IA Hawkeye in SoCal
IA Hawkeye in SoCal

Prices are up. 65% of America owns homes (or a mortgage) and that's all people care about. The Fed will always prioritize homeowners over renters.

TimeToTest
TimeToTest

Seasonal adjustment or Coronavirus adjustment.

Is there anyway to get non adjusted numbers?

Montana33
Montana33

Combine this upbeat news with all States opening up one way or another. As I talk to others, I'm hearing a lot of people who are ready to go out to as many public places as they can.

Sechel
Sechel

I expect regardless of where the numbers stabilize to we'll see a greater share of all cash purchases and investor properties. we've never really gone back to the credit standards of pre-2008 or lack there of. things were loosening up but the pandemic took care of that.


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