New Home Sales Down 6.9% From Upwardly Revised December: Expect More Revisions


Six days ado the Census Department reported on December sales. Today we have January sales. It's been a wild ride.

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 607,000, according to the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction Report for January.

This is 6.9 percent below the revised December rate of 652,000 and is 4.1 percent below the January 2018 estimate of 633,000.

Expect More Revisions

The bureau revised December up to 652,000 units from 621,000 units.

Huge regional percentage variances suggest more revisions are on the way.

  • Northeast: 31,000 Units, -11.4%
  • Midwest: 50,000 Units, -28.6%
  • South: 342,000 Units, -15.1%
  • West: 184,000 Units, +27.8%

Volatility is norm in the smaller regions where weather is also a big factor.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (4)
No. 1-3

Old news, but hopefully the CB will catch up soon. February was actually a decent month for builders here in the DFW area, the largest new home market in the country. New construction closings pushed into positive territory compared to February last year, and pending contracts were slightly better than that. The key has been lower average prices and the recent pullback in mortgage rates. Should be an interesting spring selling season. Part of the wildcard will likely be how much affordable new product builders can bring to market, and preferably a combination of quality and affordability. That will be the challenge.


“Huge regional percentage variances suggest more revisions are on the way.”

Is it that difficult to produce accurate data? Huge variances is the rule,


Didn't the average price drop? The top is REALLY close now.

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