New Home Sales Crush Forecasts in Surge to 14-Year High
The Econoday consensus was 875,000 units in a range of 820,000 to 950,000 unit.
The Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report provides a regional breakdown.
Sales by Region SAAR
- Northeast: 42,000
- Midwest: 99,000
- South: 636,000
- West: 242,000
New Home Sales 1963-Present
Seasonal Adjustments Distortions
It's important to understand seasonal adjustment distortions. New home sales for the month were 83,000 units, the same as last month.
Sales in the normally busy months of April and May instead happened in July and August making for mammoth adjustments.
The impact especially shows up year over year where sales were up an amazing 43.2 percent from last August.
Actual Number of New Homes Sold in August
- Northeast: 4,000
- Midwest: 9,000
- South: 52,000
- West: 19,000
- Total: 83,000
83,000 in actual sales is reported as 1,011,000 new homes sold.
Year-to-date actual sales were at this level in the mid 1980s and were higher in the late 1970s.
Sales were also higher between 1996 and 2006. Population-adjusted, these sales don't really stack up.
New home sales are having a very good year. However, the above chart puts a badly needed perspective on things.
Existing Home Sales at Highest Level in 14 Years
Also note Existing Home Sales at Highest Level in 14 Years. But once agaain, seasonal distortions annualized are in play.