Most Absurd Brexit Claim Ever: "30-Year Recession, Worse Than 1930s"


The leftwing rag mag The Guardian promotes the most hyped-up silliness to date on Brexit: a 30-year recession.

Guardian writer Amelia Hill cites alleged "experts" in her nonsensical appraisal UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit.

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.

The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.

“No deal means leaving with nothing,” she said. “The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 years: even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades.”

The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, Howard said. “The UK will need to set up new enforcement bodies and transfer new powers to regulators to create our own domestic regimes,” she said.

Effects Felt for 30 Years

Hill made five references to Howard but I have no idea who that alleged expert is. We do not have a full name, but Howard is a she.

Hill's moans about a 1930s recession and claims even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades, in the same paragraph.

The actual linked-to article by Guardian writer Emine Saner is titled: Two, 50 or 100 years: when do leavers think Brexit will pay off?

The title is very misleading.

This is what Jacob Rees-Mogg actually stated: “We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time.” That is quite accurate. Benefits accrue every year.

Former Brexit Secretart David Davis said "There is no reason why many of these cannot be achieved within two years.”

Hill managed to take an already purposelessly-overhyped headline title and turn it into a complete fabricated lie that links recessions to 30-year waits for benefits.

Fearmongering FUD

After 16 paragraphs of total fearmongering FUD, Hill mentions the counter-claims.

Economists for Free Trade, a group with links to Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis, claims there is “nothing to fear” from leaving the EU without reaching an agreement.

David Collins, a professor of international economic law at City University of London, said: “The UK can trade quite easily on an uncertified schedule.”

However, Collins conceded that an uncertified schedule “might be an indication of that complaining member’s intention to initiate a dispute against the member,” and that “the WTO dispute settlement process can take several years to resolve”.

Thus two correctly cites experts say no problem. Two law experts, not economic experts makes the opposing claim.

Collins, an international economics professor, is certainly correct, but notice the slant of the article and the title.

30-Year Recession

The idea of a 30-year recession wins the blue ribbon for dumbest statement ever about Brexit, and that is saying quite a lot.

Hill deserves a blue ribbon herself for producing an absurd article full of clearly-overhyped nonsense, without even properly referencing who one her alleged "experts" is.

The Guardian frequently presents fake news articles with left-wing progressive and Brexit slants. Hill and Saner provide today's examples.

30-year recession. Get real.

Short-term, the EU will get hit much harder than the UK. Germany will get hit the hardest. At that point the EU will be ready for serious trade discussion with the UK.

​Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (10)
No. 1-8

Many are expecting a deep recession if not an outright depression. Given the low birth rates and aging populations worldwide, there could be a generational recession. The timing of Brexit could possibly be very bad and receive some blame, even if other countries are hit worse.

But Brexit will not be the real cause; more likely a mitigating factor.


Well, you know what they say about socialists being economically illiterate -- if they were economically literate they wouldn't be socialists.

Gina Miller, take a bow.


The EU is restricting and milking the UK. Getting out is just a start. Maybe the EU will send out some submarines to sink the boats of Brits fishing their own waters if they leave, lol.


Unfortunately Mrs May and her team are not up to the job in hand. Pity the UK. "Hero's led by donkeys". Lacking vision.

Kitco Pete
Kitco Pete

I think the UK is in a deep mess regardless of Brexit. Historically high debt, low birthrate, decaying infrastructure, chronic trade imbalance, vacuous if not downright illiterate population....


According to AOC, the world is going to end in 12 years. A 30 year recession isn't really an issue then.

Nothing but a phony scare tactic. A political fraud.


Maybe maybe not. Take the example of Singapore that was "kicked-out" of Malaya in 1965. Not that Singapore was doing that great but still it took them all the way to the mid 1980s to "find their groove". Repositioning an economy takes time. Maybe not a 30 year slump, but Britain will pay a heavy economic price -- much higher unemployment as a lot of European jobs move back to Europe.

I could easily see a 10 year economic slump so that by 2030 Britain's economy would be where it is today.


Guardian has many quality reporters but they also have many "FAKE NEWS" reporters like Mish described and many reporters with leftist/socialist viewpoint in the news articles they write.

Global Economics