More Than One Third of All NYC Residents Consider Leaving

Mish

The cost of living in New York City is so steep that in the past 4 months, 35% have considered leaving.

High Income Flight

A Siena College study shows 44 Percent of Six-Figure Earners in NYC Have Considered Relocating.

The study also says 80% of those living in the city make $100,000 or more.

If 44% of 80% consider leaving, that is 35.2% of the total population.

Key Findings

  1. Of New York City residents who earn $100,000 or more annually, 44% have considered moving out of the city in  the past four months. Looking ahead, 37% say that it is at least somewhat likely that they will not be living in the city within the next two years.
  2. More than two-thirds (69%) are “not confident that New York City will be back to normal anytime soon,” while just 28% believe that the city “will weather this crisis, and things will be back to normal soon.” 
  3. Respondents from Staten Island are especially pessimistic: 89% say that they are not confident in a timely return to normalcy. 
  4. Some 80% of New Yorkers earning six-figure salaries or higher believe that economic activity in the city will take longer than a year to recover, and just 20% say that the economy will return to normal in the next 12 months. 
  5. Older respondents are more pessimistic about the recovery, with 89% of those 65 years and older expecting recovery to be more than a year away
  6. Only 38% of New Yorkers surveyed said that quality of life now was excellent or good, a drop by half, from 79% before the pandemic. Most believe that the city has a long road to recovery: 69% say that it “will take longer than a year” for quality of life to return to normal.
  7. 75% of respondents cited income taxes as a problem, while 72% pointed to traffic and 68% to the reliability of public transportation. 
  8. The greatest concern of all was the likelihood of coronavirus spread, with 90% saying that it posed a problem for them. 
  9. Among respondents with children who attend public school in New York City, more than half (53%) said that they are very concerned about sending them back to school, including 76% of black respondents. Those in the Bronx (72%) are warier of sending their children to reopened physical schools than those in Manhattan (40%). 
  10. Income taxes appear to be a bigger concern for respondents than property taxes (75% to 60%, respectively, saying that these taxes are at least somewhat serious problems). Even for these New Yorkers earning six-figure salaries and above, 89% cite cost of living as a problem.

Governor Cuomo Begs Rich New Yorkers to Return

In an effort to get wealthy New Yorkers to return, Governor Andrew Cuomo says ‘Come over, I’ll cook!’

“I literally talk to people all day long who are now in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house, or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, ‘You got to come back! We’ll go to dinner! I’ll buy you a drink! Come over, I’ll cook!’

“They’re not coming back right now. And you know what else they’re thinking? ‘If I stay there, I’ll pay a lower income tax,’ because they don’t pay the New York City surcharge,” he added, noting the wealthiest 1 percent of the Empire State’s population picks up roughly 50 percent of the state’s tax burden.

NYC Mayor Says ‘I Am Not Going to Beg’

In sharp contrast to governor Cuomo, NYC mayor Bill de Blasio says ‘I Am Not Going to Beg’.

In a briefing from City Hall, de Blasio for a second day in a row sneered at Gov. Cuomo’s suggestion that the Big Apple’s ballooning deficit can only be bridged if rich people who fled at the outset of the pandemic come back and start paying taxes again.

“I am not going to beg anybody to live in the greatest city in the world.”

De Blasio also reiterated his demand for taxing wealthy New Yorkers at a higher rate and said the most “fair” period in American history was in the high-taxed aftermath of World War II.

“We saw much less income inequality,” he said. “We had the model right.”

The Right Model

De Blasio, a true progressive nutcase, wants a 90% income tax rate. 

If he tried that at the city level rather than nationally most of NYC would vacate.

Modern Income Tax

The Modern Income Tax started in 1913 at a modest 1% rate.

By 1918  it was 77% to finance WWI which the US should never have been involved in.

In the name of "fairness" President Franklin D. Roosevelt idiotically proposed a 100% tax on all incomes over $25,000.

In the wake of WWII marginal rates got as high as 94% on incomes above $200,000.

Rates have generally been falling since 1964 when the top rate was lowered to 70%.

Mish

Comments (44)
No. 1-25
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Illinois rates were not progressive. Lower incomes were actually paying more per dollar. Looks like they are about to reverse it so that higher incomes pay more.

It will be interesting to see where all these people end up. Can Florida or Texas handle a population of 35-40M ? I'm actually glad people are leaving California because I think there is an upper bound on the number of people who can live here based on how many forests there are and how much traffic. I grew up in Texas when there was quality of life there. Now there are too many people already but more are moving there everyday. Property taxes in Texas keep rising to make up for lack of an income tax. They keep building more low quality housing as far as the eye can see because the terrain does not limit anything. Everything seems possible until it isnt.

Realist
Realist

Looks like Americans are shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. Or perhaps changing their leaking room for one that isn’t leaking yet.

Perhaps you would be better off to leave the sinking ship for a much more stable one.

Sechel
Sechel

As a New Yorker I'm used to these stories. We get them every few years but a few things are worrisome.

Incompetent mayor. More homeless etc

Rising costs for people in high rise apartments. Insurance, tax and labor costs all increasing at rates far above CPI.

companies allowing remote workers mean you can live someplace cheaper. If you are working from home and the kids are there too that small apartment is now more of a problem

People employed in restaurants, travel, entertainment etc are not making money. If there's one thing worse than rising expenses it's a declining income

Sechel
Sechel

Let's get one thing straight. The mayor doesn't control the nyc income tax rate. It gets set in Albany. Same with the sales tax. This 90% rate ain't happening. You're silly to discuss it. NYC controls the real estate tax and that's it

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

The population of Rome declined from more than 1 million to around 20,000 after 475 A.D.

There is no rational reason to expect anything other than similar results here.

LouMannheim
LouMannheim

My friend just listed his condo in the financial district - he's pricing it 10% higher than his cost from 2006. It's $4K per month in taxes and common charges, which is a lot but, and this is the issue for NYC, I've seen much higher.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

I have two grown kids in NYC. They've hung in there, but the gig economy has dried up and they don't have a lot of work. They did have savings, and they can weather the storm for a while....but they are both jazz musicians by training and inclination, and that world has changed. Both of them worked at the Village Vanguard until COVID. It's been closed for six months I think.

I also have two others in Chicago, which does not seem to be quite so hard hit. Both of them are artists, All these kids are in their 30's really just getting into the swing of life.....they will get through this, but it doesn't make it any easier...in world that has already been pretty tough on them.

Rhet
Rhet

<I> In the wake of WWII marginal rates got as high as 94% on incomes above $200,000.

Rates have generally been falling since 1964 when the top rate was lowered to 70%.</I>

Dark days for America surely. I well remember the bread lines and economic devastation of the 1950s and early 60s. It’s amazing corporate American was even able to function with CEOs only making an (inflation adjusted) 1.2 million vs 12 million today. Good things those dark days are behind us.

PecuniaNonOlet
PecuniaNonOlet

Assume everyone leaves New York, where do you think 8 million people will go that will not have an affect on taxes, municipal services, utilities, housing, crime, etc in that area?

Some people here are cheering on that a huge swarm of human locust move from one area to another to make a point. If they do that, the joke will be on you as the locust come to your neighborhood.

About a few months ago, I read a story about californians moving to places like Montana to get away from the traffic, crime and high housing prices and all the retail strip malls. Guess what is happening to those small towns in Montana - traffic, crime, housing prices skyrocketing, retail strip malls and of course, the need for more government!

This wasnt the article but an interesting perspective.

Webej
Webej

"80% of those living in the city make $100,000 or more, and that translates to 35.2% of all residents"

So who are all the people earning >100,000 that somehow live in the city without being residents?

bradw2k
bradw2k

So many white collar jobs can now be done remotely, it's one less reason to live in a big city "where the jobs are." I just hired someone in AZ to be on the team "in" OR. Why not?

Jojo
Jojo

Your big paycheck might decline if you leave the expensive cities!

No Exit: VMWare Joins Growing Group Of Tech Cos Threatening To Cut Employees Wages For Leaving San Francisco
Fri, 09/11/2020 - 15:09

Jojo
Jojo

Also working the GIG life may not work out so well in cheaper suburbia wher e there are less customers available.

Jobs In The Pandemic: More Are Freelance And May Stay That Way Forever
September 16, 2020

simb555
simb555

I live in Manhattan. The only plus is that Social Security and Pension income are not taxed by the city or state. That and 50% discounts for MTA busses and LIRR means healthy seniors can live OK without a car and with a Summer escape Home on Fire Island reachable by LIRR and Ferry once the covid scare goes away.

LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird

Mish you have part of it wrong:

"Residents who earn $100,000 or more make up 80 percent of New York City’s income-tax revenue. That personal income tax, in turn, accounts for 22% of the city’s overall tax revenues. "

What you wrote doesn't make any sense "The study also states 80% of those living in the city make $100,000 or more, and that translates to 35.2% of all residents."

Also, people on Staten Island have been miserable since the bridge went up. Nothing new there.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Where would they go? Nobody wants that ideological infestation next door.

Cocoa
Cocoa

NYC has been on a suicide path for a decade or more. The state and city have been working against each other for decades. The planning has been simply awful. The housing has been impossible. A family with annual income less than $250,000 cannot afford to live there, certainly not in Manhattan and Brooklyn. The average grocery stores are so packed that no disadvantaged people can maneuver in them. And they smell rotten. The service workers are totally unfriendly and I don't blame them considering their income and the effort to get to work.
Public transportation has been crumbling and is dysfunctional now. Some of the bridges have been on the danger list for years. The schools have not improved despite the city has been trying to cooperate with the teachers many of them have salaries less than the service workers. There is no network with the healthcare system. One has to waste at least half an hour in the waiting room of a doctor's office for a ten minute checkup. Yes. There still are wonderful cultural institutions there. But to visit the Met museum, one is asked to contribute $25. Pretty much the same with the other notable museums. Concerts - forget them. $40 at least for a performance at one of those satellite halls. Much of all that is true to SF as well.
Now the migration to the burbs. The cost of a house in a decent suburb has jumped at least a third. Li Ying is undergoing a divorce now. So she plans to move into a small fixer upper and expect the house that she and the children are living now will fetch a couple of million. Of course one would need cars to get around. But overall it is less stressful for simple things. And noe working at home is more acceptable - saving the companies' sky high rent in NYC. Plus one can get a deduction for using part of the home for the home office.

Mish
Mish

Editor

To Me ....What you wrote doesn't make any sense "The study also states 80% of those living in the city make $100,000 or more, and that translates to 35.2% of all residents."

Of course it makes sense.

44% of 80% consider leaving

.44 * .8 = 1.0 X
35.2% of the total

numike
numike

NYC is boring

Mish
Mish

Editor

This post should not be at the top. Sort order to newest is now messed up.

I revised a sentence to make it more understandable. Have a fix request in.

MeltOnMiami
MeltOnMiami

We are getting a lot of buyers from New Yorkers! We have the best condo project on Miami Beach! www.MeltonGoodwin.com

ReadyKilowatt
ReadyKilowatt

Progressive income taxes have nothing to do with income inequality. Productivity and sound money does. The tax code is just welfare for accountants.

wmjack
wmjack

Waking up to the legal taking of property perfected by the New York City Democrats
NYC is no longer needed with the internet and Zoom to do business

russell1200
russell1200

I wonder if it is the death of the local eateries/bars that is driving much of it? Retail was already getting crushed. But good food seems to be a huge draw for a lot of people in urban settings. That and easy transport to work.

Otherwise, I don't see why NYC is somehow more expensive than what it was pre-Covid. It just doesn't have the upside.


Global Economics

FEATURED
COMMUNITY