Manufacturing Has Peaked This Economic Cycle
Key Manufacturing Details
- For the first time in history, manufacturing production is unlikely to take out the previous pre-recession peak.
- Unlike the the 2015-2016 energy-based decline, the current manufacturing decline is broad-based and real.
- Manufacturing production is 2.25% below the peak set in december 2007 with the latest Manufacturing ISM Down 5th Month to Lowest Since June 2009.
Other than the 2015-2016 energy-based decline, every decline in industrial production has led or accompanied a recession.
After a manufacturing surge in November due to the end of the GM strike, Manufacturing Sector Jobs Shrank by 12,000 in December.
Despite surging crude prices, the December Producer Price Inflation was Weak and Below Expectations
Finally, please note that the Cass Year-Over-Year Freight Index Sinks to a 12-Year Low
Manufacturing employment, shipping, industrial production, and the PPI are all screaming the same word.
In case you missed the word, here it is: Recession.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock